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Register a new userLearning interaction kernels in stochastic systems of interacting particles from multiple trajectories
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Sui Tang
Publication date
2020
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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We consider stochastic systems of interacting particles or agents, with dynamics determined by an interaction kernel which only depends on pairwise distances. We study the problem of inferring this interaction kernel from observations of the positions of the particles, in either continuous or discrete time, along multiple independent trajectories. We introduce a nonparametric inference approach to this inverse problem, based on a regularized maximum likelihood estimator constrained to suitable hypothesis spaces adaptive to data. We show that a coercivity condition enables us to control the condition number of this problem and prove the consistency of our estimator, and that in fact it converges at a near-optimal learning rate, equal to the min-max rate of $1$-dimensional non-parametric regression. In particular, this rate is independent of the dimension of the state space, which is typically very high. We also analyze the discretization errors in the case of discrete-time observations, showing that it is of order $1/2$ in terms of the time gaps between observations. This term, when large, dominates the sampling error and the approximation error, preventing convergence of the estimator. Finally, we exhibit an efficient parallel algorithm to construct the estimator from data, and we demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithm with numerical tests on prototype systems including stochastic opinion dynamics and a Lennard-Jones model.
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Systems of interacting particles or agents have wide applications in many disciplines such as Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Economics. These systems are governed by interaction laws, which are often unknown: estimating them from observation data is a fundamental task that can provide meaningful insights and accurate predictions of the behaviour of the agents. In this paper, we consider the inverse problem of learning interaction laws given data from multiple trajectories, in a nonparametric fashion, when the interaction kernels depend on pairwise distances. We establish a condition for learnability of interaction kernels, and construct estimators that are guaranteed to converge in a suitable $L^2$ space, at the optimal min-max rate for 1-dimensional nonparametric regression. We propose an efficient learning algorithm based on least squares, which can be implemented in parallel for multiple trajectories and is therefore well-suited for the high dimensional, big data regime. Numerical simulations on a variety examples, including opinion dynamics, predator-swarm dynamics and heterogeneous particle dynamics, suggest that the learnability condition is satisfied in models used in practice, and the rate of convergence of our estimator is consistent with the theory. These simulations also suggest that our estimators are robust to noise in the observations, and produce accurate predictions of dynamics in relative large time intervals, even when they are learned from data collected in short time intervals.
We address a fundamental issue in the nonparametric inference for systems of interacting particles: the identifiability of the interaction functions. We prove that the interaction functions are identifiable for a class of first-order stochastic systems, including linear systems with general initial laws and nonlinear systems with stationary distributions. We show that a coercivity condition is sufficient for identifiability and becomes necessary when the number of particles approaches infinity. The coercivity is equivalent to the strict positivity of related integral operators, which we prove by showing that their integral kernels are strictly positive definite by using Muntz type theorems.
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Nonlinear kernels can be approximated using finite-dimensional feature maps for efficient risk minimization. Due to the inherent trade-off between the dimension of the (mapped) feature space and the approximation accuracy, the key problem is to identify promising (explicit) features leading to a satisfactory out-of-sample performance. In this work, we tackle this problem by efficiently choosing such features from multiple kernels in a greedy fashion. Our method sequentially selects these explicit features from a set of candidate features using a correlation metric. We establish an out-of-sample error bound capturing the trade-off between the error in terms of explicit features (approximation error) and the error due to spectral properties of the best model in the Hilbert space associated to the combined kernel (spectral error). The result verifies that when the (best) underlying data model is sparse enough, i.e., the spectral error is negligible, one can control the test error with a small number of explicit features, that can scale poly-logarithmically with data. Our empirical results show that given a fixed number of explicit features, the method can achieve a lower test error with a smaller time cost, compared to the state-of-the-art in data-dependent random features.
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