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Register a new userEfficient Rare-Event Simulation for Multiple Jump Events in Regularly Varying Levy Processes with Infinite Activities
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In this paper we address the problem of rare-event simulation for heavy-tailed Levy processes with infinite activities. We propose a strongly efficient importance sampling algorithm that builds upon the sample path large deviations for heavy-tailed Levy processes, stick-breaking approximation of extrema of Levy processes, and the randomized debiasing Monte Carlo scheme. The proposed importance sampling algorithm can be applied to a broad class of Levy processes and exhibits significant improvements in efficiency when compared to crude Monte-Carlo method in our numerical experiments.
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The prediction and control of rare events is an important task in disciplines that range from physics and biology, to economics and social science. The Big Jump principle deals with a peculiar aspect of the mechanism that drives rare events. According to the principle, in heavy-tailed processes a rare huge fluctuation is caused by a single event and not by the usual coherent accumulation of small deviations. We consider generalized Levy walks, a class of stochastic processes with power law distributed step durations, which model complex microscopic dynamics in the single stretch. We derive the bulk of the probability distribution and using the big jump principle, the exact form of the tails that describes rare events. We show that the tails of the distribution present non-universal and non-analytic behaviors, which depend crucially on the dynamics of the single step. The big jump estimate also provides a physical explanation of the processes driving the rare events, opening new possibilities for their correct prediction.
In this paper we use splitting technique to estimate the probability of hitting a rare but critical set by the continuous component of a switching diffusion. Instead of following classical approach we use Wonham filter to achieve multiple goals including reduction of asymptotic variance and exemption from sampling the discrete components.
It is well known that the product of two independent regularly varying random variables with the same tail index is again regularly varying with this index. In this paper, we provide sharp sufficient conditions for the regular variation property of product-type functions of regularly varying random vectors, generalizing and extending the univariate theory in various directions. The main result is then applied to characterize the regular variation property of products of iid regularly varying quadratic random matrices and of solutions to affine stochastic recurrence equations under non-standard conditions.
Rare events in stochastic processes with heavy-tailed distributions are controlled by the big jump principle, which states that a rare large fluctuation is produced by a single event and not by an accumulation of coherent small deviations. The principle has been rigorously proved for sums of independent and identically distributed random variables and it has recently been extended to more complex stochastic processes involving Levy distributions, such as Levy walks and the Levy-Lorentz gas, using an effective rate approach. We review the general rate formalism and we extend its applicability to continuous time random walks and to the Lorentz gas, both with stretched exponential distributions, further enlarging its applicability. We derive an analytic form for the probability density functions for rare events in the two models, which clarify specific properties of stretched exponentials.
Advances in sampling schemes for Markov jump processes have recently enabled multiple inferential tasks. However, in statistical and machine learning applications, we often require that these continuous-time models find support on structured and infinite state spaces. In these cases, exact sampling may only be achieved by often inefficient particle filtering procedures, and rapidly augmenting observed datasets remains a significant challenge. Here, we build on the principles of uniformization and present a tractable framework to address this problem, which greatly improves the efficiency of existing state-of-the-art methods commonly used in small finite-state systems, and further scales their use to infinite-state scenarios. We capitalize on the marginal role of variable subsets in a model hierarchy during the process jumps, and describe an algorithm that relies on measurable mappings between pairs of states and carefully designed sets of synthetic jump observations. The proposed method enables the efficient integration of slice sampling techniques and it can overcome the existing computational bottleneck. We offer evidence by means of experiments addressing inference and clustering tasks on both simulated and real data sets.
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