We study the influence of global baryon number conservation on the non-critical baseline of net baryon cumulants in heavy-ion collisions in a given acceptance, accounting for the asymmetry between the mean-numbers of baryons and antibaryons. We derive the probability distribution of net baryon number in a restricted phase space from the canonical partition function that incorporates exact conservation of baryon number in the full system. Furthermore, we provide tools to compute cumulants of any order from the generating function of uncorrelated baryons constrained by exact baryon number conservation. The results are applied to quantify the non-critical baseline for cumulants of net proton number fluctuations obtained in heavy-ion collisions by the STAR collaboration at different RHIC energies and by the ALICE collaboration at the LHC. Furthermore, volume fluctuations are added by a Monte Carlo procedure based on the centrality dependence of charged particle production as measured experimentally. Compared to the predictions based on the hadron resonance gas model or Skellam distribution a clear suppression of fluctuations is observed due to exact baryon-number conservation. The suppression increases with the order of the cumulant and towards lower collision energies. Predictions for net proton cumulants up to the eight order in heavy-ion collisions are given for experimentally accessible collision energies.
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