We perform the first dipole picture fit to HERA inclusive cross section data using the full next-to-leading order (NLO) impact factor combined with an improved Balitsky-Kovchegov evolution including the dominant effects beyond leading logarithmic accuracy at low $x$. We find that three different formulations of the evolution equation that have been proposed in the recent literature result in a very similar description of HERA data, and robust predictions for future deep inelastic scattering experiments. We find evidence pointing towards a significant nonperturbative contribution to the structure function for light quarks, which stresses the need to extend the NLO impact factor calculation to massive quarks.
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