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Earth observation (EO) by airborne and satellite remote sensing and in-situ observations play a fundamental role in monitoring our planet. In the last decade, machine learning and Gaussian processes (GPs) in particular has attained outstanding results in the estimation of bio-geo-physical variables from the acquired images at local and global scales in a time-resolved manner. GPs provide not only accurate estimates but also principled uncertainty estimates for the predictions, can easily accommodate multimodal data coming from different sensors and from multitemporal acquisitions, allow the introduction of physical knowledge, and a formal treatment of uncertainty quantification and error propagation. Despite great advances in forward and inverse modelling, GP models still have to face important challenges that are revised in this perspective paper. GP models should evolve towards data-driven physics-aware models that respect signal characteristics, be consistent with elementary laws of physics, and move from pure regression to observational causal inference.
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Gaussian Processes (GPs) has experienced tremendous success in geoscience in general and for bio-geophysical parameter retrieval in the last years. GPs constitute a solid Bayesian framework to formulate many function approximation problems consistently. This paper reviews the main theoretical GP developments in the field. We review new algorithms that respect the signal and noise characteristics, that provide feature rankings automatically, and that allow applicability of associated uncertainty intervals to transport GP models in space and time. All these developments are illustrated in the field of geoscience and remote sensing at a local and global scales through a set of illustrative examples.
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Gaussian processes (GPs) are flexible non-parametric models, with a capacity that grows with the available data. However, computational constraints with standard inference procedures have limited exact GPs to problems with fewer than about ten thousand training points, necessitating approximations for larger datasets. In this paper, we develop a scalable approach for exact GPs that leverages multi-GPU parallelization and methods like linear conjugate gradients, accessing the kernel matrix only through matrix multiplication. By partitioning and distributing kernel matrix multiplies, we demonstrate that an exact GP can be trained on over a million points, a task previously thought to be impossible with current computing hardware, in less than 2 hours. Moreover, our approach is generally applicable, without constraints to grid data or specific kernel classes. Enabled by this scalability, we perform the first-ever comparison of exact GPs against scalable GP approximations on datasets with $10^4 !-! 10^6$ data points, showing dramatic performance improvements.
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