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Register a new userLearning to search efficiently for causally near-optimal treatments
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Finding an effective medical treatment often requires a search by trial and error. Making this search more efficient by minimizing the number of unnecessary trials could lower both costs and patient suffering. We formalize this problem as learning a policy for finding a near-optimal treatment in a minimum number of trials using a causal inference framework. We give a model-based dynamic programming algorithm which learns from observational data while being robust to unmeasured confounding. To reduce time complexity, we suggest a greedy algorithm which bounds the near-optimality constraint. The methods are evaluated on synthetic and real-world healthcare data and compared to model-free reinforcement learning. We find that our methods compare favorably to the model-free baseline while offering a more transparent trade-off between search time and treatment efficacy.
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We consider the problem of learning a loss function which, when minimized over a training dataset, yields a model that approximately minimizes a validation error metric. Though learning an optimal loss function is NP-hard, we present an anytime algorithm that is asymptotically optimal in the worst case, and is provably efficient in an idealized easy case. Experimentally, we show that this algorithm can be used to tune loss function hyperparameters orders of magnitude faster than state-of-the-art alternatives. We also show that our algorithm can be used to learn novel and effective loss functions on-the-fly during training.
We consider the problem of learning in Linear Quadratic Control systems whose transition parameters are initially unknown. Recent results in this setting have demonstrated efficient learning algorithms with regret growing with the square root of the number of decision steps. We present new efficient algorithms that achieve, perhaps surprisingly, regret that scales only (poly)logarithmically with the number of steps in two scenarios: when only the state transition matrix $A$ is unknown, and when only the state-action transition matrix $B$ is unknown and the optimal policy satisfies a certain non-degeneracy condition. On the other hand, we give a lower bound that shows that when the latter condition is violated, square root regret is unavoidable.
We study learning in a noisy bisection model: specifically, Bayesian algorithms to learn a target value V given access only to noisy realizations of whether V is less than or greater than a threshold theta. At step t = 0, 1, 2, ..., the learner sets threshold theta t and observes a noisy realization of sign(V - theta t). After T steps, the goal is to output an estimate V^ which is within an eta-tolerance of V . This problem has been studied, predominantly in environments with a fixed error probability q < 1/2 for the noisy realization of sign(V - theta t). In practice, it is often the case that q can approach 1/2, especially as theta -> V, and there is little known when this happens. We give a pseudo-Bayesian algorithm which provably converges to V. When the true prior matches our algorithms Gaussian prior, we show near-optimal expected performance. Our methods extend to the general multiple-threshold setting where the observation noisily indicates which of k >= 2 regions V belongs to.
Motivated by the rising abundance of observational data with continuous treatments, we investigate the problem of estimating the average dose-response curve (ADRF). Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, and previous attempts in leveraging neural network to enhance model expressiveness relied on partitioning continuous treatment into blocks and using separate heads for each block; this however produces in practice discontinuous ADRFs. Therefore, the question of how to adapt the structure and training of neural network to estimate ADRFs remains open. This paper makes two important contributions. First, we propose a novel varying coefficient neural network (VCNet) that improves model expressiveness while preserving continuity of the estimated ADRF. Second, to improve finite sample performance, we generalize targeted regularization to obtain a doubly robust estimator of the whole ADRF curve.
In reinforcement learning, we can learn a model of future observations and rewards, and use it to plan the agents next actions. However, jointly modeling future observations can be computationally expensive or even intractable if the observations are high-dimensional (e.g. images). For this reason, previous works have considered partial models, which model only part of the observation. In this paper, we show that partial models can be causally incorrect: they are confounded by the observations they dont model, and can therefore lead to incorrect planning. To address this, we introduce a general family of partial models that are provably causally correct, yet remain fast because they do not need to fully model future observations.
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