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Register a new userSimple and Principled Uncertainty Estimation with Deterministic Deep Learning via Distance Awareness
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Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to their heavy memory and inference cost. This motivates us to study principled approaches to high-quality uncertainty estimation that require only a single deep neural network (DNN). By formalizing the uncertainty quantification as a minimax learning problem, we first identify input distance awareness, i.e., the models ability to quantify the distance of a testing example from the training data in the input space, as a necessary condition for a DNN to achieve high-quality (i.e., minimax optimal) uncertainty estimation. We then propose Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process (SNGP), a simple method that improves the distance-awareness ability of modern DNNs, by adding a weight normalization step during training and replacing the output layer with a Gaussian process. On a suite of vision and language understanding tasks and on modern architectures (Wide-ResNet and BERT), SNGP is competitive with deep ensembles in prediction, calibration and out-of-domain detection, and outperforms the other single-model approaches.
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Ensemble learning is a standard approach to building machine learning systems that capture complex phenomena in real-world data. An important aspect of these systems is the complete and valid quantification of model uncertainty. We introduce a Bayesian nonparametric ensemble (BNE) approach that augments an existing ensemble model to account for different sources of model uncertainty. BNE augments a models prediction and distribution functions using Bayesian nonparametric machinery. It has a theoretical guarantee in that it robustly estimates the uncertainty patterns in the data distribution, and can decompose its overall predictive uncertainty into distinct components that are due to different sources of noise and error. We show that our method achieves accurate uncertainty estimates under complex observational noise, and illustrate its real-world utility in terms of uncertainty decomposition and model bias detection for an ensemble in predict air pollution exposures in Eastern Massachusetts, USA.
We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the classification problem at hand. We demonstrate that such techniques tend to introduce biased estimates for instances whose predictions are supposed to be highly confident. We argue that this deficiency is an artifact of the dynamics of training with SGD-like optimizers, and it has some properties similar to overfitting. Based on this observation, we develop an uncertainty estimation algorithm that selectively estimates the uncertainty of highly confident points, using earlier snapshots of the trained model, before their estimates are jittered (and way before they are ready for actual classification). We present extensive experiments indicating that the proposed algorithm provides uncertainty estimates that are consistently better than all known methods.
Machine learning (ML) systems often encounter Out-of-Distribution (OoD) errors when dealing with testing data coming from a distribution different from training data. It becomes important for ML systems in critical applications to accurately quantify its predictive uncertainty and screen out these anomalous inputs. However, existing OoD detection approaches are prone to errors and even sometimes assign higher likelihoods to OoD samples. Unlike standard learning tasks, there is currently no well established guiding principle for designing OoD detection architectures that can accurately quantify uncertainty. To address these problems, we first seek to identify guiding principles for designing uncertainty-aware architectures, by proposing Neural Architecture Distribution Search (NADS). NADS searches for a distribution of architectures that perform well on a given task, allowing us to identify common building blocks among all uncertainty-aware architectures. With this formulation, we are able to optimize a stochastic OoD detection objective and construct an ensemble of models to perform OoD detection. We perform multiple OoD detection experiments and observe that our NADS performs favorably, with up to 57% improvement in accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods among 15 different testing configurations.
A key factor for ensuring safety in Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) is to avoid any abnormal behaviors under undesirable and unpredicted circumstances. As AVs increasingly rely on Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to perform safety-critical tasks, different methods for uncertainty quantification have recently been proposed to measure the inevitable source of errors in data and models. However, uncertainty quantification in DNNs is still a challenging task. These methods require a higher computational load, a higher memory footprint, and introduce extra latency, which can be prohibitive in safety-critical applications. In this paper, we provide a brief and comparative survey of methods for uncertainty quantification in DNNs along with existing metrics to evaluate uncertainty predictions. We are particularly interested in understanding the advantages and downsides of each method for specific AV tasks and types of uncertainty sources.
We show that a single softmax neural net with minimal changes can beat the uncertainty predictions of Deep Ensembles and other more complex single-forward-pass uncertainty approaches. Standard softmax neural nets suffer from feature collapse and extrapolate arbitrarily for OoD points. This results in arbitrary softmax entropies for OoD points which can have high entropy, low, or anything in between, thus cannot capture epistemic uncertainty reliably. We prove that this failure lies at the core of why Deep Ensemble Uncertainty works well. Instead of using softmax entropy, we show that with appropriate inductive biases softmax neural nets trained with maximum likelihood reliably capture epistemic uncertainty through their feature-space density. This density is obtained using simple Gaussian Discriminant Analysis, but it cannot represent aleatoric uncertainty reliably. We show that it is necessary to combine feature-space density with softmax entropy to disentangle uncertainties well. We evaluate the epistemic uncertainty quality on active learning and OoD detection, achieving SOTA ~98 AUROC on CIFAR-10 vs SVHN without fine-tuning on OoD data.
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