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We describe a series of algorithms that efficiently implement Gaussian model-X knockoffs to control the false discovery rate on large scale feature selection problems. Identifying the knockoff distribution requires solving a large scale semidefinite program for which we derive several efficient methods. One handles generic covariance matrices, has a complexity scaling as $O(p^3)$ where $p$ is the ambient dimension, while another assumes a rank $k$ factor model on the covariance matrix to reduce this complexity bound to $O(pk^2)$. We also derive efficient procedures to both estimate factor models and sample knockoff covariates with complexity linear in the dimension. We test our methods on problems with $p$ as large as $500,000$.
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Many modern time-series datasets contain large numbers of output response variables sampled for prolonged periods of time. For example, in neuroscience, the activities of 100s-1000s of neurons are recorded during behaviors and in response to sensory stimuli. Multi-output Gaussian process models leverage the nonparametric nature of Gaussian processes to capture structure across multiple outputs. However, this class of models typically assumes that the correlations between the output response variables are invariant in the input space. Stochastic linear mixing models (SLMM) assume the mixture coefficients depend on input, making them more flexible and effective to capture complex output dependence. However, currently, the inference for SLMMs is intractable for large datasets, making them inapplicable to several modern time-series problems. In this paper, we propose a new regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) that introduces an orthogonal constraint amongst the mixing coefficients. This constraint reduces the computational burden of inference while retaining the capability to handle complex output dependence. We provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures for both SLMM and OSLMM and demonstrate superior model scalability and reduced prediction error of OSLMM compared with state-of-the-art methods on several real-world applications. In neurophysiology recordings, we use the inferred latent functions for compact visualization of population responses to auditory stimuli, and demonstrate superior results compared to a competing method (GPFA). Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale time-series datasets.
Linear causal analysis is central to a wide range of important application spanning finance, the physical sciences, and engineering. Much of the existing literature in linear causal analysis operates in the time domain. Unfortunately, the direct application of time domain linear causal analysis to many real-world time series presents three critical challenges: irregular temporal sampling, long range dependencies, and scale. Moreover, real-world data is often collected at irregular time intervals across vast arrays of decentralized sensors and with long range dependencies which make naive time domain correlation estimators spurious. In this paper we present a frequency domain based estimation framework which naturally handles irregularly sampled data and long range dependencies while enabled memory and communication efficient distributed processing of time series data. By operating in the frequency domain we eliminate the need to interpolate and help mitigate the effects of long range dependencies. We implement and evaluate our new work-flow in the distributed setting using Apache Spark and demonstrate on both Monte Carlo simulations and high-frequency financial trading that we can accurately recover causal structure at scale.
In settings ranging from weather forecasts to political prognostications to financial projections, probability estimates of future binary outcomes often evolve over time. For example, the estimated likelihood of rain on a specific day changes by the hour as new information becomes available. Given a collection of such probability paths, we introduce a Bayesian framework -- which we call the Gaussian latent information martingale, or GLIM -- for modeling the structure of dynamic predictions over time. Suppose, for example, that the likelihood of rain in a week is 50%, and consider two hypothetical scenarios. In the first, one expects the forecast is equally likely to become either 25% or 75% tomorrow; in the second, one expects the forecast to stay constant for the next several days. A time-sensitive decision-maker might select a course of action immediately in the latter scenario, but may postpone their decision in the former, knowing that new information is imminent. We model these trajectories by assuming predictions update according to a latent process of information flow, which is inferred from historical data. In contrast to general methods for time series analysis, this approach preserves the martingale structure of probability paths and better quantifies future uncertainties around probability paths. We show that GLIM outperforms three popular baseline methods, producing better estimated posterior probability path distributions measured by three different metrics. By elucidating the dynamic structure of predictions over time, we hope to help individuals make more informed choices.
Many scientific problems require identifying a small set of covariates that are associated with a target response and estimating their effects. Often, these effects are nonlinear and include interactions, so linear and additive methods can lead to poor estimation and variable selection. The Bayesian framework makes it straightforward to simultaneously express sparsity, nonlinearity, and interactions in a hierarchical model. But, as for the few other methods that handle this trifecta, inference is computationally intractable - with runtime at least quadratic in the number of covariates, and often worse. In the present work, we solve this computational bottleneck. We first show that suitable Bayesian models can be represented as Gaussian processes (GPs). We then demonstrate how a kernel trick can reduce computation with these GPs to O(# covariates) time for both variable selection and estimation. Our resulting fit corresponds to a sparse orthogonal decomposition of the regression function in a Hilbert space (i.e., a functional ANOVA decomposition), where interaction effects represent all variation that cannot be explained by lower-order effects. On a variety of synthetic and real datasets, our approach outperforms existing methods used for large, high-dimensional datasets while remaining competitive (or being orders of magnitude faster) in runtime.
The slow convergence rate and pathological curvature issues of first-order gradient methods for training deep neural networks, initiated an ongoing effort for developing faster $mathit{second}$-$mathit{order}$ optimization algorithms beyond SGD, without compromising the generalization error. Despite their remarkable convergence rate ($mathit{independent}$ of the training batch size $n$), second-order algorithms incur a daunting slowdown in the $mathit{cost}$ $mathit{per}$ $mathit{iteration}$ (inverting the Hessian matrix of the loss function), which renders them impractical. Very recently, this computational overhead was mitigated by the works of [ZMG19,CGH+19}, yielding an $O(mn^2)$-time second-order algorithm for training two-layer overparametrized neural networks of polynomial width $m$. We show how to speed up the algorithm of [CGH+19], achieving an $tilde{O}(mn)$-time backpropagation algorithm for training (mildly overparametrized) ReLU networks, which is near-linear in the dimension ($mn$) of the full gradient (Jacobian) matrix. The centerpiece of our algorithm is to reformulate the Gauss-Newton iteration as an $ell_2$-regression problem, and then use a Fast-JL type dimension reduction to $mathit{precondition}$ the underlying Gram matrix in time independent of $M$, allowing to find a sufficiently good approximate solution via $mathit{first}$-$mathit{order}$ conjugate gradient. Our result provides a proof-of-concept that advanced machinery from randomized linear algebra -- which led to recent breakthroughs in $mathit{convex}$ $mathit{optimization}$ (ERM, LPs, Regression) -- can be carried over to the realm of deep learning as well.
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