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Modern neural network performance typically improves as model size increases. A recent line of research on the Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) of over-parameterized networks indicates that the improvement with size increase is a product of a better conditioned loss landscape. In this work, we investigate a form of over-parameterization achieved through ensembling, where we define collegial ensembles (CE) as the aggregation of multiple independent models with identical architectures, trained as a single model. We show that the optimization dynamics of CE simplify dramatically when the number of models in the ensemble is large, resembling the dynamics of wide models, yet scale much more favorably. We use recent theoretical results on the finite width corrections of the NTK to perform efficient architecture search in a space of finite width CE that aims to either minimize capacity, or maximize trainability under a set of constraints. The resulting ensembles can be efficiently implemented in practical architectures using group convolutions and block diagonal layers. Finally, we show how our framework can be used to analytically derive optimal group convolution modules originally found using expensive grid searches, without having to train a single model.
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We present local ensembles, a method for detecting extrapolation at test time in a pre-trained model. We focus on underdetermination as a key component of extrapolation: we aim to detect when many possible predictions are consistent with the training data and model class. Our method uses local second-order information to approximate the variance of predictions across an ensemble of models from the same class. We compute this approximation by estimating the norm of the component of a test points gradient that aligns with the low-curvature directions of the Hessian, and provide a tractable method for estimating this quantity. Experimentally, we show that our method is capable of detecting when a pre-trained model is extrapolating on test data, with applications to out-of-distribution detection, detecting spurious correlates, and active learning.
Deep ensembles have recently gained popularity in the deep learning community for their conceptual simplicity and efficiency. However, maintaining functional diversity between ensemble members that are independently trained with gradient descent is challenging. This can lead to pathologies when adding more ensemble members, such as a saturation of the ensemble performance, which converges to the performance of a single model. Moreover, this does not only affect the quality of its predictions, but even more so the uncertainty estimates of the ensemble, and thus its performance on out-of-distribution data. We hypothesize that this limitation can be overcome by discouraging different ensemble members from collapsing to the same function. To this end, we introduce a kernelized repulsive term in the update rule of the deep ensembles. We show that this simple modification not only enforces and maintains diversity among the members but, even more importantly, transforms the maximum a posteriori inference into proper Bayesian inference. Namely, we show that the training dynamics of our proposed repulsive ensembles follow a Wasserstein gradient flow of the KL divergence with the true posterior. We study repulsive terms in weight and function space and empirically compare their performance to standard ensembles and Bayesian baselines on synthetic and real-world prediction tasks.
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) generate data based on minimizing a divergence between two distributions. The choice of that divergence is therefore critical. We argue that the divergence must take into account the hypothesis set and the loss function used in a subsequent learning task, where the data generated by a GAN serves for training. Taking that structural information into account is also important to derive generalization guarantees. Thus, we propose to use the discrepancy measure, which was originally introduced for the closely related problem of domain adaptation and which precisely takes into account the hypothesis set and the loss function. We show that discrepancy admits favorable properties for training GANs and prove explicit generalization guarantees. We present efficient algorithms using discrepancy for two tasks: training a GAN directly, namely DGAN, and mixing previously trained generative models, namely EDGAN. Our experiments on toy examples and several benchmark datasets show that DGAN is competitive with other GANs and that EDGAN outperforms existing GAN ensembles, such as AdaGAN.
Ensembles of deep neural networks have achieved great success recently, but they do not offer a proper Bayesian justification. Moreover, while they allow for averaging of predictions over several hypotheses, they do not provide any guarantees for their diversity, leading to redundant solutions in function space. In contrast, particle-based inference methods, such as Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD), offer a Bayesian framework, but rely on the choice of a kernel to measure the similarity between ensemble members. In this work, we study different SVGD methods operating in the weight space, function space, and in a hybrid setting. We compare the SVGD approaches to other ensembling-based methods in terms of their theoretical properties and assess their empirical performance on synthetic and real-world tasks. We find that SVGD using functional and hybrid kernels can overcome the limitations of deep ensembles. It improves on functional diversity and uncertainty estimation and approaches the true Bayesian posterior more closely. Moreover, we show that using stochastic SVGD updates, as opposed to the standard deterministic ones, can further improve the performance.
The estimation of advantage is crucial for a number of reinforcement learning algorithms, as it directly influences the choices of future paths. In this work, we propose a family of estimates based on the order statistics over the path ensemble, which allows one to flexibly drive the learning process, towards or against risks. On top of this formulation, we systematically study the impacts of different methods for estimating advantages. Our findings reveal that biased estimates, when chosen appropriately, can result in significant benefits. In particular, for the environments with sparse rewards, optimistic estimates would lead to more efficient exploration of the policy space; while for those where individual actions can have critical impacts, conservative estimates are preferable. On various benchmarks, including MuJoCo continuous control, Terrain locomotion, Atari games, and sparse-reward environments, the proposed biased estimation schemes consistently demonstrate improvement over mainstream methods, not only accelerating the learning process but also obtaining substantial performance gains.
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