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Register a new userNeural Jump Ordinary Differential Equations: Consistent Continuous-Time Prediction and Filtering
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Combinations of neural ODEs with recurrent neural networks (RNN), like GRU-ODE-Bayes or ODE-RNN are well suited to model irregularly observed time series. While those models outperform existing discrete-time approaches, no theoretical guarantees for their predictive capabilities are available. Assuming that the irregularly-sampled time series data originates from a continuous stochastic process, the $L^2$-optimal online prediction is the conditional expectation given the currently available information. We introduce the Neural Jump ODE (NJ-ODE) that provides a data-driven approach to learn, continuously in time, the conditional expectation of a stochastic process. Our approach models the conditional expectation between two observations with a neural ODE and jumps whenever a new observation is made. We define a novel training framework, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees for the first time. In particular, we show that the output of our model converges to the $L^2$-optimal prediction. This can be interpreted as solution to a special filtering problem. We provide experiments showing that the theoretical results also hold empirically. Moreover, we experimentally show that our model outperforms the baselines in more complex learning tasks and give comparisons on real-world datasets.
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Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE) are a promising approach to learn dynamic models from time-series data in science and engineering applications. This work aims at learning Neural ODE for stiff systems, which are usually raised from chemical kinetic modeling in chemical and biological systems. We first show the challenges of learning neural ODE in the classical stiff ODE systems of Robertsons problem and propose techniques to mitigate the challenges associated with scale separations in stiff systems. We then present successful demonstrations in stiff systems of Robertsons problem and an air pollution problem. The demonstrations show that the usage of deep networks with rectified activations, proper scaling of the network outputs as well as loss functions, and stabilized gradient calculations are the key techniques enabling the learning of stiff neural ODE. The success of learning stiff neural ODE opens up possibilities of using neural ODEs in applications with widely varying time-scales, like chemical dynamics in energy conversion, environmental engineering, and the life sciences.
We propose a continuous neural network architecture, termed Explainable Tensorized Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ETN-ODE), for multi-step time series prediction at arbitrary time points. Unlike the existing approaches, which mainly handle univariate time series for multi-step prediction or multivariate time series for single-step prediction, ETN-ODE could model multivariate time series for arbitrary-step prediction. In addition, it enjoys a tandem attention, w.r.t. temporal attention and variable attention, being able to provide explainable insights into the data. Specifically, ETN-ODE combines an explainable Tensorized Gated Recurrent Unit (Tensorized GRU or TGRU) with Ordinary Differential Equations (ODE). The derivative of the latent states is parameterized with a neural network. This continuous-time ODE network enables a multi-step prediction at arbitrary time points. We quantitatively and qualitatively demonstrate the effectiveness and the interpretability of ETN-ODE on five different multi-step prediction tasks and one arbitrary-step prediction task. Extensive experiments show that ETN-ODE can lead to accurate predictions at arbitrary time points while attaining best performance against the baseline methods in standard multi-step time series prediction.
Discovering the underlying behavior of complex systems is an important topic in many science and engineering disciplines. In this paper, we propose a novel neural network framework, finite difference neural networks (FDNet), to learn partial differential equations from data. Specifically, our proposed finite difference inspired network is designed to learn the underlying governing partial differential equations from trajectory data, and to iteratively estimate the future dynamical behavior using only a few trainable parameters. We illustrate the performance (predictive power) of our framework on the heat equation, with and without noise and/or forcing, and compare our results to the Forward Euler method. Moreover, we show the advantages of using a Hessian-Free Trust Region method to train the network.
We introduce a new family of deep neural network models. Instead of specifying a discrete sequence of hidden layers, we parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network. The output of the network is computed using a black-box differential equation solver. These continuous-depth models have constant memory cost, adapt their evaluation strategy to each input, and can explicitly trade numerical precision for speed. We demonstrate these properties in continuous-depth residual networks and continuous-time latent variable models. We also construct continuous normalizing flows, a generative model that can train by maximum likelihood, without partitioning or ordering the data dimensions. For training, we show how to scalably backpropagate through any ODE solver, without access to its internal operations. This allows end-to-end training of ODEs within larger models.
The instability of Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) training has frequently been attributed to gradient descent. Consequently, recent methods have aimed to tailor the models and training procedures to stabilise the discrete updates. In contrast, we study the continuous-time dynamics induced by GAN training. Both theory and toy experiments suggest that these dynamics are in fact surprisingly stable. From this perspective, we hypothesise that instabilities in training GANs arise from the integration error in discretising the continuous dynamics. We experimentally verify that well-known ODE solvers (such as Runge-Kutta) can stabilise training - when combined with a regulariser that controls the integration error. Our approach represents a radical departure from previous methods which typically use adaptive optimisation and stabilisation techniques that constrain the functional space (e.g. Spectral Normalisation). Evaluation on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet shows that our method outperforms several strong baselines, demonstrating its efficacy.
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