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Register a new userQualitative classification of extraterrestrial civilizations
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Valentin Dimitrov Ivanov
Publication date
2020
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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Abridged: The interest towards searches for extraterrestrial civilizations (ETCs) was boosted by the discovery of thousands of exoplanets. We turn to the classification of ETCs for new considerations that may help to design better strategies for ETCs searches. We take a basic taxonomic approach to ETCs and investigate the implications of the new classification on ETCs observational patterns. We use as a counter-example to our qualitative classification the quantitative scheme of Kardashev. We propose a classification based on the abilities of ETCs to modify their environment and to integrate with it: Class 0 uses the environment as it is, Class 1 modifies the it to fit its needs, Class 2 modifies itself to fit the environment and Class 3 ETC is fully integrated with the environment. Combined with the classical Kardashevs scale our scheme forms a 2d scheme for interpreting ETC properties. The new framework makes it obvious that the available energy is not an unique measure of ETCs, it may not even correlate with how well that energy is used. The possibility for progress without increased energy consumption implies lower detectability, so the existence of a Kardashev Type III ETC in the Milky Way cannot be ruled out. This reasoning weakens the Fermi paradox, allowing the existence of advanced, yet not energy hungry, low detectability ETCs. The integration of ETCs with environment makes it impossible to tell apart technosignatures from natural phenomena. Thus, the most likely opportunity for SETI searches is to look for beacons, specifically set up by them for young civilizations like us (if they want to do that is a matter of speculation). The other SETI window is to search for ETCs at technological level close to ours. To rephrase the saying of A. Clarke, sufficiently advanced civilizations are indistinguishable from nature.
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The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) is a scientific endeavor which struggles with unique issues -- a strong indeterminacy in what data to look for and when to do so. This has led to attempts at finding both fundamental limits of the communication between extraterrestrial intelligence and human civilizations, as well as benchmarks so as to predict what kinds of signals we might most expect. Previous work has been formulated in terms of the information-theoretic task of communication, but we instead argue it should be viewed as a detection problem, specifically one-shot (asymmetric) hypothesis testing. With this new interpretation, we develop fundamental limits as well as provide simple examples of how to use this framework to analyze and benchmark different possible signals from extraterrestrial civilizations. We show that electromagnetic signaling for detection requires much less power than for communication, that detection as a function of power can be non-linear, and that much of the analysis in this framework may be addressed using computationally efficient optimization problems, thereby demonstrating tools for further inquiry.
We motivate the ^G infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies. We discuss some philosophical difficulties of SETI, and how communication SETI circumvents them. We review Dysonian SETI, the search for artifacts of alien civilizations, and find that it is highly complementary to traditional communication SETI; the two together might succeed where either one, alone, has not. We discuss the argument of Hart (1975) that spacefaring life in the Milky Way should be either galaxy-spanning or non-existent, and examine a portion of his argument that we dub the monocultural fallacy. We discuss some rebuttals to Hart that invoke sustainability and predict long Galaxy colonization timescales. We find that the maximum Galaxy colonization timescale is actually much shorter than previous work has found ($< 10^9$ yr), and that many sustainability counter-arguments to Harts thesis suffer from the monocultural fallacy. We extend Harts argument to alien energy supplies, and argue that detectably large energy supplies can plausibly be expected to exist because life has potential for exponential growth until checked by resource or other limitations, and intelligence implies the ability to overcome such limitations. As such, if Harts thesis is correct then searches for large alien civilizations in other galaxies may be fruitful; if it is incorrect, then searches for civilizations within the Milky Way are more likely to succeed than Hart argued. We review some past Dysonian SETI efforts, and discuss the promise of new mid-infrared surveys, such as that of WISE.
We describe the framework and strategy of the ^G infrared search for extraterrestrial civilizations with large energy supplies, which will use the wide-field infrared surveys of WISE and Spitzer to search for these civilizations waste heat. We develop a formalism for translating mid-infrared photometry into quantitative upper limits on extraterrestrial energy supplies. We discuss the likely sources of false positives, how dust can and will contaminate our search, and prospects for distinguishing dust from alien waste heat. We argue that galaxy-spanning civilizations may be easier to distinguish from natural sources than circumstellar civilizations (i.e., Dyson spheres), although Gaia will significantly improve our capability to identify the latter. We present a zeroth order null result of our search based on the WISE all-sky catalog: we show, for the first time, that Kardashev Type III civilizations (as Kardashev originally defined them) are very rare in the local universe. More sophisticated searches can extend our methodology to smaller waste heat luminosities, and potentially entirely rule out (or detect) both Kardashev Type III civilizations and new physics that allows for unlimited free energy generation.
It is shown that, contrary to an existing claim, the near equality between the lifetime of the sun and the timescale of biological evolution on earth does not necessarily imply that extraterrestrial civilizations are exceedingly rare. Furthermore, on the basis of simple assumptions it is demonstrated that a near equality between these two timescales may be the most probable relation. A calculation of the cosmic history of carbon production which is based on the recently determined history of the star formation rate suggests that the most likely time for intelligent civilizations to emerge in the universe, was when the universe was already older then about 10 billion years (for an assumed current age of about 13 billion years).
Pulsars have at least two impressive applications. First, they can be used as highly accurate clocks, comparable in stability to atomic clocks; secondly, a small subset of pulsars, millisecond X-ray pulsars, provide all the necessary ingredients for a passive galactic positioning system. This is known in astronautics as X-ray pulsar-based navigation (XNAV). XNAV is comparable to GPS, except that it operates on a galactic scale. I propose a SETI-XNAV research program to test the hypothesis that this pulsar positioning system might be an instance of galactic-scale engineering by extraterrestrial beings (section 4). The paper starts by exposing the basics of pulsar navigation (section 2), continues with a critique of the rejection of the extraterrestrial hypothesis when pulsars were first discovered (section 3). The core section 4 proposes lines of inquiry for SETI-XNAV, related to: the pulsar distribution and power in the galaxy; their population; their evolution; possible pulse synchronizations; pulsar usability when navigating near the speed of light; decoding galactic coordinates; directed panspermia; and information content in pulses. Even if pulsars are natural, they are likely to be used as standards by ETIs in the galaxy (section 5). I discuss possible objections and potential benefits for humanity, whether the research program succeeds or not (section 6).
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