Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userAsymmetries in football: The pass-goal paradox
67
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
We investigate the relation between the number of passes made by a football team and the number of goals. We analyze the 380 matches of a complete season of the Spanish national league LaLiga (2018/2019). We observe how the number of scored goals is positively correlated with the number of passes made by a team. In this way, teams on the top (bottom) of the ranking at the end of the season make more (less) passes than the rest of the teams. However, we observe a strong asymmetry when the analysis is made depending on the part of the match. Interestingly, fewer passes are made on the second part of a match while, at the same time, more goals are scored. This paradox appears in the majority of teams, and it is independent of the number of passes made. These results confirm that goals in the first part of matches are more costly in terms of passes than those scored on second halves.
rate research
Read More
Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the distributions of scored goals for the home and away teams. It turns out that in particular the tails of the distributions are not well described by independent Bernoulli trials, but rather well modeled by negative binomial or generalized extreme value distributions. To understand this behavior from first principles, we suggest to modify the Bernoulli random process to include a simple component of self-affirmation which seems to describe the data surprisingly well and allows to interpret the observed deviation from Gaussian statistics. The phenomenological distributions used before can be understood as special cases within this framework. We analyzed historical football score data from many leagues in Europe as well as from international tournaments and found the proposed models to be applicable rather universally. In particular, here we compare mens and womens leagues and the separate German leagues during the cold war times and find some remarkable differences.
Analyzing football score data with statistical techniques, we investigate how the not purely random, but highly co-operative nature of the game is reflected in averaged properties such as the probability distributions of scored goals for the home and away teams. As it turns out, especially the tails of the distributions are not well described by the Poissonian or binomial model resulting from the assumption of uncorrelated random events. Instead, a good effective description of the data is provided by less basic distributions such as the negative binomial one or the probability densities of extreme value statistics. To understand this behavior from a microscopical point of view, however, no waiting time problem or extremal process need be invoked. Instead, modifying the Bernoulli random process underlying the Poissonian model to include a simple component of self-affirmation seems to describe the data surprisingly well and allows to understand the observed deviation from Gaussian statistics. The phenomenological distributions used before can be understood as special cases within this framework. We analyzed historical football score data from many leagues in Europe as well as from international tournaments, including data from all past tournaments of the ``FIFA World Cup series, and found the proposed models to be applicable rather universally. In particular, here we analyse the results of the German womens premier football league and consider the two separate German mens premier leagues in the East and West during the cold war times and the unified league after 1990 to see how scoring in football and the component of self-affirmation depend on cultural and political circumstances.
Sports are spontaneous generators of stories. Through skill and chance, the script of each game is dynamically written in real time by players acting out possible trajectories allowed by a sports rules. By properly characterizing a given sports ecology of `game stories, we are able to capture the sports capacity for unfolding interesting narratives, in part by contrasting them with random walks. Here, we explore the game story space afforded by a data set of 1,310 Australian Football League (AFL) score lines. We find that AFL games exhibit a continuous spectrum of stories rather than distinct clusters. We show how coarse-graining reveals identifiable motifs ranging from last minute comeback wins to one-sided blowouts. Through an extensive comparison with biased random walks, we show that real AFL games deliver a broader array of motifs than null models, and we provide consequent insights into the narrative appeal of real games.
Recently a computational model has been proposed of the social integration, as described in sociological terms by Peter Blau. In this model, actors praise or critique each other, and these actions influence their social status and raise negative or positive emotions. The role of a self-deprecating strategy of actors with high social status has also been discussed there. Here we develop a mean field approach, where the active and passive roles (praising and being praised, etc.) are decoupled. The phase transition from friendly to hostile emotions has been reproduced, similarly to the previously applied purely computational approach. For both phases, we investigate the time dependence of the distribution of social status. There we observe a diffusive spread, which - after some transient time - appears to be limited from below or from above, depending on the phase. As a consequence, the mean status flows.
Facing the threats of infectious diseases, we take various actions to protect ourselves, but few studies considered an evolving system with competing strategies. In view of that, we propose an evolutionary epidemic model coupled with human behaviors, where individuals have three strategies: vaccination, self-protection and laissez faire, and could adjust their strategies according to their neighbors strategies and payoffs at the beginning of each new season of epidemic spreading. We found a counter-intuitive phenomenon analogous to the well-known emph{Braesss Paradox}, namely a better condition may lead to worse performance. Specifically speaking, increasing the successful rate of self-protection does not necessarily reduce the epidemic size or improve the system payoff. This phenomenon is insensitive to the network topologies, and can be well explained by a mean-field approximation. Our study demonstrates an important fact that a better condition for individuals may yield a worse outcome for the society.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
