It is believed that random quantum circuits are difficult to simulate classically. These have been used to demonstrate quantum supremacy: the execution of a computational task on a quantum computer that is infeasible for any classical computer. The task underlying the assertion of quantum supremacy by Arute et al. (Nature, 574, 505--510 (2019)) was initially estimated to require Summit, the worlds most powerful supercomputer today, approximately 10,000 years. The same task was performed on the Sycamore quantum processor in only 200 seconds. In this work, we present a tensor network-based classical simulation algorithm. Using a Summit-comparable cluster, we estimate that our simulator can perform this task in less than 20 days. On moderately-sized instances, we reduce the runtime from years to minutes, running several times faster than Sycamore itself. These estimates are based on explicit simulations of parallel subtasks, and leave no room for hidden costs. The simulators key ingredient is identifying and optimizing the stem of the computation: a sequence of pairwise tensor contractions that dominates the computational cost. This orders-of-magnitude reduction in classical simulation time, together with proposals for further significant improvements, indicates that achieving quantum supremacy may require a period of continuing quantum hardware developments without an unequivocal first demonstration.
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