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Register a new userRigorous Explanation of Inference on Probabilistic Graphical Models
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Yifei Liu
Publication date
2020
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Probabilistic graphical models, such as Markov random fields (MRF), exploit dependencies among random variables to model a rich family of joint probability distributions. Sophisticated inference algorithms, such as belief propagation (BP), can effectively compute the marginal posteriors. Nonetheless, it is still difficult to interpret the inference outcomes for important human decision making. There is no existing method to rigorously attribute the inference outcomes to the contributing factors of the graphical models. Shapley values provide an axiomatic framework, but naively computing or even approximating the values on general graphical models is challenging and less studied. We propose GraphShapley to integrate the decomposability of Shapley values, the structure of MRFs, and the iterative nature of BP inference in a principled way for fast Shapley value computation, that 1) systematically enumerates the important contributions to the Shapley values of the explaining variables without duplicate; 2) incrementally compute the contributions without starting from scratches. We theoretically characterize GraphShapley regarding independence, equal contribution, and additivity. On nine graphs, we demonstrate that GraphShapley provides sensible and practical explanations.
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Optimal Transport (OT) is being widely used in various fields such as machine learning and computer vision, as it is a powerful tool for measuring the similarity between probability distributions and histograms. In previous studies, OT has been defined as the minimum cost to transport probability mass from one probability distribution to another. In this study, we propose a new framework in which OT is considered as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) solution of a probabilistic generative model. With the proposed framework, we show that OT with entropic regularization is equivalent to maximizing a posterior probability of a probabilistic model called Collective Graphical Model (CGM), which describes aggregated statistics of multiple samples generated from a graphical model. Interpreting OT as a MAP solution of a CGM has the following two advantages: (i) We can calculate the discrepancy between noisy histograms by modeling noise distributions. Since various distributions can be used for noise modeling, it is possible to select the noise distribution flexibly to suit the situation. (ii) We can construct a new method for interpolation between histograms, which is an important application of OT. The proposed method allows for intuitive modeling based on the probabilistic interpretations, and a simple and efficient estimation algorithm is available. Experiments using synthetic and real-world spatio-temporal population datasets show the effectiveness of the proposed interpolation method.
We investigate a correspondence between two formalisms for discrete probabilistic modeling: probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) and tensor networks (TNs), a powerful modeling framework for simulating complex quantum systems. The graphical calculus of PGMs and TNs exhibits many similarities, with discrete undirected graphical models (UGMs) being a special case of TNs. However, more general probabilistic TN models such as Born machines (BMs) employ complex-valued hidden states to produce novel forms of correlation among the probabilities. While representing a new modeling resource for capturing structure in discrete probability distributions, this behavior also renders the direct application of standard PGM tools impossible. We aim to bridge this gap by introducing a hybrid PGM-TN formalism that integrates quantum-like correlations into PGM models in a principled manner, using the physically-motivated concept of decoherence. We first prove that applying decoherence to the entirety of a BM model converts it into a discrete UGM, and conversely, that any subgraph of a discrete UGM can be represented as a decohered BM. This method allows a broad family of probabilistic TN models to be encoded as partially decohered BMs, a fact we leverage to combine the representational strengths of both model families. We experimentally verify the performance of such hybrid models in a sequential modeling task, and identify promising uses of our method within the context of existing applications of graphical models.
Probabilistic inferences distill knowledge from graphs to aid human make important decisions. Due to the inherent uncertainty in the model and the complexity of the knowledge, it is desirable to help the end-users understand the inference outcomes. Different from deep or high-dimensional parametric models, the lack of interpretability in graphical models is due to the cyclic and long-range dependencies and the byzantine inference procedures. Prior works did not tackle cycles and make textit{the} inferences interpretable. To close the gap, we formulate the problem of explaining probabilistic inferences as a constrained cross-entropy minimization problem to find simple subgraphs that faithfully approximate the inferences to be explained. We prove that the optimization is NP-hard, while the objective is not monotonic and submodular to guarantee efficient greedy approximation. We propose a general beam search algorithm to find simple trees to enhance the interpretability and diversity in the explanations, with parallelization and a pruning strategy to allow efficient search on large and dense graphs without hurting faithfulness. We demonstrate superior performance on 10 networks from 4 distinct applications, comparing favorably to other explanation methods. Regarding the usability of the explanation, we visualize the explanation in an interface that allows the end-users to explore the diverse search results and find more personalized and sensible explanations.
We consider the problem of inferring a graphical Potts model on a population of variables, with a non-uniform number of Potts colors (symbols) across variables. This inverse Potts problem generally involves the inference of a large number of parameters, often larger than the number of available data, and, hence, requires the introduction of regularization. We study here a double regularization scheme, in which the number of colors available to each variable is reduced, and interaction networks are made sparse. To achieve this color compression scheme, only Potts states with large empirical frequency (exceeding some threshold) are explicitly modeled on each site, while the others are grouped into a single state. We benchmark the performances of this mixed regularization approach, with two inference algorithms, the Adaptive Cluster Expansion (ACE) and the PseudoLikelihood Maximization (PLM) on synthetic data obtained by sampling disordered Potts models on an Erdos-Renyi random graphs. We show in particular that color compression does not affect the quality of reconstruction of the parameters corresponding to high-frequency symbols, while drastically reducing the number of the other parameters and thus the computational time. Our procedure is also applied to multi-sequence alignments of protein families, with similar results.
With the wide adoption of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) by cognitive neuroscience researchers, large volumes of brain imaging data have been accumulated in recent years. Aggregating these data to derive scientific insights often faces the challenge that fMRI data are high-dimensional, heterogeneous across people, and noisy. These challenges demand the development of computational tools that are tailored both for the neuroscience questions and for the properties of the data. We review a few recently developed algorithms in various domains of fMRI research: fMRI in naturalistic tasks, analyzing full-brain functional connectivity, pattern classification, inferring representational similarity and modeling structured residuals. These algorithms all tackle the challenges in fMRI similarly: they start by making clear statements of assumptions about neural data and existing domain knowledge, incorporating those assumptions and domain knowledge into probabilistic graphical models, and using those models to estimate properties of interest or latent structures in the data. Such approaches can avoid erroneous findings, reduce the impact of noise, better utilize known properties of the data, and better aggregate data across groups of subjects. With these successful cases, we advocate wider adoption of explicit model construction in cognitive neuroscience. Although we focus on fMRI, the principle illustrated here is generally applicable to brain data of other modalities.
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