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Register a new userNew Perspectives on the Use of Online Learning for Congestion Level Prediction over Traffic Data
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This work focuses on classification over time series data. When a time series is generated by non-stationary phenomena, the pattern relating the series with the class to be predicted may evolve over time (concept drift). Consequently, predictive models aimed to learn this pattern may become eventually obsolete, hence failing to sustain performance levels of practical use. To overcome this model degradation, online learning methods incrementally learn from new data samples arriving over time, and accommodate eventual changes along the data stream by implementing assorted concept drift strategies. In this manuscript we elaborate on the suitability of online learning methods to predict the road congestion level based on traffic speed time series data. We draw interesting insights on the performance degradation when the forecasting horizon is increased. As opposed to what is done in most literature, we provide evidence of the importance of assessing the distribution of classes over time before designing and tuning the learning model. This previous exercise may give a hint of the predictability of the different congestion levels under target. Experimental results are discussed over real traffic speed data captured by inductive loops deployed over Seattle (USA). Several online learning methods are analyzed, from traditional incremental learning algorithms to more elaborated deep learning models. As shown by the reported results, when increasing the prediction horizon, the performance of all models degrade severely due to the distribution of classes along time, which supports our claim about the importance of analyzing this distribution prior to the design of the model.
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Accurate traffic speed prediction is an important and challenging topic for transportation planning. Previous studies on traffic speed prediction predominately used spatio-temporal and context features for prediction. However, they have not made good use of the impact of urban traffic incidents. In this work, we aim to make use of the information of urban incidents to achieve a better prediction of traffic speed. Our incident-driven prediction framework consists of three processes. First, we propose a critical incident discovery method to discover urban traffic incidents with high impact on traffic speed. Second, we design a binary classifier, which uses deep learning methods to extract the latent incident impact features from the middle layer of the classifier. Combining above methods, we propose a Deep Incident-Aware Graph Convolutional Network (DIGC-Net) to effectively incorporate urban traffic incident, spatio-temporal, periodic and context features for traffic speed prediction. We conduct experiments on two real-world urban traffic datasets of San Francisco and New York City. The results demonstrate the superior performance of our model compare to the competing benchmarks.
As a crucial component in intelligent transportation systems, traffic flow prediction has recently attracted widespread research interest in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) with the increasing availability of massive traffic mobility data. Its key challenge lies in how to integrate diverse factors (such as temporal rules and spatial dependencies) to infer the evolution trend of traffic flow. To address this problem, we propose a unified neural network called Attentive Traffic Flow Machine (ATFM), which can effectively learn the spatial-temporal feature representations of traffic flow with an attention mechanism. In particular, our ATFM is composed of two progressive Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM cite{xingjian2015convolutional}) units connected with a convolutional layer. Specifically, the first ConvLSTM unit takes normal traffic flow features as input and generates a hidden state at each time-step, which is further fed into the connected convolutional layer for spatial attention map inference. The second ConvLSTM unit aims at learning the dynamic spatial-temporal representations from the attentionally weighted traffic flow features. Further, we develop two deep learning frameworks based on ATFM to predict citywide short-term/long-term traffic flow by adaptively incorporating the sequential and periodic data as well as other external influences. Extensive experiments on two standard benchmarks well demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method for traffic flow prediction. Moreover, to verify the generalization of our method, we also apply the customized framework to forecast the passenger pickup/dropoff demands in traffic prediction and show its superior performance. Our code and data are available at {color{blue}url{https://github.com/liulingbo918/ATFM}}.
Congestion prediction represents a major priority for traffic management centres around the world to ensure timely incident response handling. The increasing amounts of generated traffic data have been used to train machine learning predictors for traffic, however, this is a challenging task due to inter-dependencies of traffic flow both in time and space. Recently, deep learning techniques have shown significant prediction improvements over traditional models, however, open questions remain around their applicability, accuracy and parameter tuning. This paper brings two contributions in terms of: 1) applying an outlier detection an anomaly adjustment method based on incoming and historical data streams, and 2) proposing an advanced deep learning framework for simultaneously predicting the traffic flow, speed and occupancy on a large number of monitoring stations along a highly circulated motorway in Sydney, Australia, including exit and entry loop count stations, and over varying training and prediction time horizons. The spatial and temporal features extracted from the 36.34 million data points are used in various deep learning architectures that exploit their spatial structure (convolutional neuronal networks), their temporal dynamics (recurrent neuronal networks), or both through a hybrid spatio-temporal modelling (CNN-LSTM). We show that our deep learning models consistently outperform traditional methods, and we conduct a comparative analysis of the optimal time horizon of historical data required to predict traffic flow at different time points in the future. Lastly, we prove that the anomaly adjustment method brings significant improvements to using deep learning in both time and space.
Localization and tracking of objects using data-driven methods is a popular topic due to the complexity in characterizing the physics of wireless channel propagation models. In these modeling approaches, data needs to be gathered to accurately train models, at the same time that users privacy is maintained. An appealing scheme to cooperatively achieve these goals is known as Federated Learning (FL). A challenge in FL schemes is the presence of non-independent and identically distributed (non-IID) data, caused by unevenly exploration of different areas. In this paper, we consider the use of recent FL schemes to train a set of personalized models that are then optimally fused through Bayesian rules, which makes it appropriate in the context of indoor localization.
Online learning is a powerful tool for analyzing iterative algorithms. However, the classic adversarial setup sometimes fails to capture certain regularity in online problems in practice. Motivated by this, we establish a new setup, called Continuous Online Learning (COL), where the gradient of online loss function changes continuously across rounds with respect to the learners decisions. We show that COL covers and more appropriately describes many interesting applications, from general equilibrium problems (EPs) to optimization in episodic MDPs. Using this new setup, we revisit the difficulty of achieving sublinear dynamic regret. We prove that there is a fundamental equivalence between achieving sublinear dynamic regret in COL and solving certain EPs, and we present a reduction from dynamic regret to both static regret and convergence rate of the associated EP. At the end, we specialize these new insights into online imitation learning and show improved understanding of its learning stability.
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