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Register a new userExcess Semiannual Variation in Historic Temperature Records
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The annual temperature cycle of the earth closely follows the annual cycle of solar flux. At temperate latitudes, both driving and response cycles are well described by a strong annual sinusoidal component and a non-vanishing semiannual component. A new analysis of historical weather station records in the United States determines persistent annual and semiannual variation with high precision. Historical annual temperature ranges are consistent with prior studies. Semiannual temperature cycles were much stronger than expected based on the semiannual solar driving. Instead, these cycles were consistent with multiplicative effects of two annual cycles. Our methods provide a quantitative window into the climates nonlinear response to solar driving, which is of potential value in testing climate models.
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We propose a non-steady state model of the global temperature change. The model describes Earths surface temperature dynamics under main climate forcing. The equations were derived from basic physical relationships and detailed assessment of the numeric parameters used in the model. It shows an accurate fit with observed changes in the surface mean annual temperature (MAT) for the past 116 years. Using our model, we analyze the future global temperature change under scenarios of drastic reductions of COtextsubscript{2}. The presence of non-linear feed-backs in the model indicates on the possibility of exceeding two degrees threshold even under the carbon dioxide drastic reduction scenario. We discuss the risks associated with such warming and evaluate possible benefits of developing COtextsubscript{2}-absorbing deciduous tree plantations in the boreal zone of Northern Hemisphere.
Hoyt & Schatten (1998) claim that Simon Marius would have observed the sun from 1617 Jun 7 to 1618 Dec 31 (Gregorian calendar) all days, except three short gaps in 1618, but would never have detected a sunspot -- based on a quotation from Marius in Wolf (1857), but misinterpreted by Hoyt & Schatten. Marius himself specified in early 1619 that for one and a half year ... rather few or more often no spots could be detected ... which was never observed before (Marius 1619). The generic statement by Marius can be interpreted such that the active day fraction was below 0.5 (but not zero) from fall 1617 to spring 1619 and that it was 1 before fall 1617 (since August 1611). Hoyt & Schatten cite Zinner (1952), who referred to Zinner (1942), where observing dates by Marius since 1611 are given, but which were not used by Hoyt & Schatten. We present all relevant texts from Marius where he clearly stated that he observed many spots in different form on and since 1611 Aug 3 (Julian) = Aug 13 (Greg.) (on the first day together with Ahasverus Schmidnerus), 14 spots on 1612 May 30 (Julian) = Jun 9 (Greg.), which is consistent with drawings by Galilei and Jungius for that day, the latter is shown here for the first time, at least one spot on 1611 Oct 3 and/or 11 (Julian), i.e. Oct 13 and/or 21 (Greg.), when he changed his sunspot observing technique, he also mentioned that he has drawn sunspots for 1611 Nov 17 (Julian) = Nov 27 (Greg.), in addition to those clearly datable detections, there is evidence in the texts for regular observations. ... Sunspots records by Malapert from 1618 to 1621 show that the last low-latitude spot was seen in Dec 1620, while the first high-latitude spots were noticed in June and Oct 1620, so that the Schwabe cycle turnover (minimum) took place around that time, ...
Based on NASA satellite infrared and visible range measurements, cloud amount ISCCP_D1 summer nighttime data, representing the tropospheric cloud activity at Central Russia are examined over 1994-2007, and the lunar signal in the cloud amount was extracted. The ISCCP_D1 database was used to confirm previous results of Pertsev, Dalin and Romejko (2007) on the large importance of lunar declination effect compared to the lunar phase effect. Since this database provides much more information than it was used in that previous investigation, it has become possible to separate the lunar phase effect and the lunar declination effect in cloudiness. The relative cloud amount tends to grow with a change of lunar phase from a quadrature to the New Moon or Full Moon and with increasing of the lunar declination by absolute value. The both effects are statistically significant, the second one is a little stronger.
The group focused on a model problem of idealised moist air convection in a single column of atmosphere. Height, temperature and moisture variables were chosen to simplify the mathematical representation (along the lines of the Boussinesq approximation in a height variable defined in terms of pressure). This allowed exact simple solutions of the numerical and partial differential equation problems to be found. By examining these, we identify column behaviour, stability issues and explore the feasibility of a more general solution process.
The exergy of the dry atmosphere can be considered as another aspect of the meteorological theories of available energies. The local and global properties of the dry available enthalpy function, also called flow exergy, were investigated in a previous paper (Marquet, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., Vol 117, p.449-475, 1991). The concept of exergy is well defined in thermodynamics, and several generalizations to chemically reacting systems have already been made. Similarly, the concept of moist available enthalpy is presented in this paper in order to generalize the dry available enthalpy to the case of a moist atmosphere. It is a local exergy-like function which possesses a simple analytical expression where only two unknown constants are to be determined, a reference temperature and a reference pressure. The moist available enthalpy, $a_m$, is defined in terms of a moist potential change in total entropy. The local function $a_m$ can be separated into temperature, pressure and latent components. The latent component is a new component that is not present in the dry case. The moist terms have been estimated using a representative cumulus vertical profile. It appears that the modifications brought by the moist formulation are important in comparison with the dry case. Other local and global properties are also investigated and comparisons are made with some other available energy functions used in thermodynamics and meteorology.
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