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In this work, we propose a novel probabilistic sequence model that excels at capturing high variability in time series data, both across sequences and within an individual sequence. Our method uses temporal latent variables to capture information about the underlying data pattern and dynamically decodes the latent information into modifications of weights of the base decoder and recurrent model. The efficacy of the proposed method is demonstrated on a range of synthetic and real-world sequential data that exhibit large scale variations, regime shifts, and complex dynamics.
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Lingvo is a Tensorflow framework offering a complete solution for collaborative deep learning research, with a particular focus towards sequence-to-sequence models. Lingvo models are composed of modular building blocks that are flexible and easily extensible, and experiment configurations are centralized and highly customizable. Distributed training and quantized inference are supported directly within the framework, and it contains existing implementations of a large number of utilities, helper functions, and the newest research ideas. Lingvo has been used in collaboration by dozens of researchers in more than 20 papers over the last two years. This document outlines the underlying design of Lingvo and serves as an introduction to the various pieces of the framework, while also offering examples of advanced features that showcase the capabilities of the framework.
Recent advances in deep reinforcement learning algorithms have shown great potential and success for solving many challenging real-world problems, including Go game and robotic applications. Usually, these algorithms need a carefully designed reward function to guide training in each time step. However, in real world, it is non-trivial to design such a reward function, and the only signal available is usually obtained at the end of a trajectory, also known as the episodic reward or return. In this work, we introduce a new algorithm for temporal credit assignment, which learns to decompose the episodic return back to each time-step in the trajectory using deep neural networks. With this learned reward signal, the learning efficiency can be substantially improved for episodic reinforcement learning. In particular, we find that expressive language models such as the Transformer can be adopted for learning the importance and the dependency of states in the trajectory, therefore providing high-quality and interpretable learned reward signals. We have performed extensive experiments on a set of MuJoCo continuous locomotive control tasks with only episodic returns and demonstrated the effectiveness of our algorithm.
Item Response Theory (IRT) is a ubiquitous model for understanding human behaviors and attitudes based on their responses to questions. Large modern datasets offer opportunities to capture more nuances in human behavior, potentially improving psychometric modeling leading to improved scientific understanding and public policy. However, while larger datasets allow for more flexible approaches, many contemporary algorithms for fitting IRT models may also have massive computational demands that forbid real-world application. To address this bottleneck, we introduce a variational Bayesian inference algorithm for IRT, and show that it is fast and scalable without sacrificing accuracy. Applying this method to five large-scale item response datasets from cognitive science and education yields higher log likelihoods and higher accuracy in imputing missing data than alternative inference algorithms. Using this new inference approach we then generalize IRT with expressive Bayesian models of responses, leveraging recent advances in deep learning to capture nonlinear item characteristic curves (ICC) with neural networks. Using an eigth-grade mathematics test from TIMSS, we show our nonlinear IRT models can capture interesting asymmetric ICCs. The algorithm implementation is open-source, and easily usable.
We present trellis networks, a new architecture for sequence modeling. On the one hand, a trellis network is a temporal convolutional network with special structure, characterized by weight tying across depth and direct injection of the input into deep layers. On the other hand, we show that truncated recurrent networks are equivalent to trellis networks with special sparsity structure in their weight matrices. Thus trellis networks with general weight matrices generalize truncated recurrent networks. We leverage these connections to design high-performing trellis networks that absorb structural and algorithmic elements from both recurrent and convolutional models. Experiments demonstrate that trellis networks outperform the current state of the art methods on a variety of challenging benchmarks, including word-level language modeling and character-level language modeling tasks, and stress tests designed to evaluate long-term memory retention. The code is available at https://github.com/locuslab/trellisnet .
The availability of large amounts of time series data, paired with the performance of deep-learning algorithms on a broad class of problems, has recently led to significant interest in the use of sequence-to-sequence models for time series forecasting. We provide the first theoretical analysis of this time series forecasting framework. We include a comparison of sequence-to-sequence modeling to classical time series models, and as such our theory can serve as a quantitative guide for practitioners choosing between different modeling methodologies.
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