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Uncited papers are not unread

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 Added by Michael Golosovsky
 Publication date 2020
and research's language is English




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We study citation dynamics of the Physics, Economics, and Mathematics papers published in 1984 and focus on the fraction of uncited papers in these three collections. Our model of citation dynamics, which considers citation process as an inhomogeneous Poisson process, captures this uncitedness ratio fairly well. It should be noted that all parameters and variables in our model are related to citations and their dynamics, while uncited papers appear as a byproduct of the citation process and this is the Poisson statistics which makes the cited and uncited papers inseparable. This indicates that the most part of uncited papers constitute the inherent part of the scientific enterprise, namely, uncited papers are not unread.



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We demonstrate a comprehensive framework that accounts for citation dynamics of scientific papers and for the age distribution of references. We show that citation dynamics of scientific papers is nonlinear and this nonlinearity has far-reaching consequences, such as diverging citation distributions and runaway papers. We propose a nonlinear stochastic dynamic model of citation dynamics based on link copying/redirection mechanism. The model is fully calibrated by empirical data and does not contain free parameters. This model can be a basis for quantitative probabilistic prediction of citation dynamics of individual papers and of the journal impact factor.
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