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Register a new userFragmentation modelling of the August 2019 impact on Jupiter
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On 7th August 2019, an impact flash lasting $sim1$s was observed on Jupiter. The video of this event was analysed to obtain the lightcurve and determine the energy release and initial mass. We find that the impactor released a total energy of $96-151$ kilotons of TNT, corresponding to an initial mass between $190-260$ metric tonnes with a diameter between $4-10$m. We developed a fragmentation model to simulate the atmospheric breakup of the object and reproduce the lightcurve. We model three different materials: cometary, stony and metallic at speeds of $60$, $65 $ and $70$ km/s to determine the material makeup of the impacting object. The slower cases are best fit by a strong, metallic object while the faster cases require a weaker material.
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The Moons changeable aspect during a lunar eclipse is largely attributable to variations in the refracted unscattered sunlight absorbed by the terrestrial atmosphere that occur as the satellite crosses the Earths shadow. The contribution to the Moons aspect from sunlight scattered at the Earths terminator is generally deemed minor. However, our analysis of a published spectrum of the 16 August 2008 lunar eclipse shows that diffuse sunlight is a major component of the measured spectrum at wavelengths shorter than 600 nm. The conclusion is supported by two distinct features, namely the spectrums tail at short wavelengths and the unequal absorption by an oxygen collisional complex at two nearby bands. Our findings are consistent with the presence of the volcanic cloud reported at high northern latitudes following the 7-8 August 2008 eruption in Alaska of the Kasatochi volcano. The cloud both attenuates the unscattered sunlight and enhances moderately the scattered component, thus modifying the contrast between the two contributions.
Comet P/2019 LD2 has orbital elements currently resembling those of a Jupiter Trojan, and therefore superficially appears to represent a unique opportunity to study the volatile content and active behavior of a member of this population for the first time. However, numerical integrations show that it was previously a Centaur before reaching its current Jupiter Trojan-like orbit in 2018 July, and is expected to return to being a Centaur in 2028 February, before eventually becoming a Jupiter-family comet in 2063 February. The case of P/2019 LD2 highlights the need for mechanisms to quickly and reliably dynamically classify small solar system bodies discovered in current and upcoming wide-field surveys.
ESA and NASA maintain asteroid hazard lists that contain all known asteroids with a non zero chance of colliding with the Earth in the future. Some software tools exist that are, either, capable of calculating the impact points of those asteroids, or that can estimate the impact effects of a given impact incident. However, no single tool is available that combines both aspects and enables a comprehensive risk analysis. The question is, thus, whether tools that can calculate impact location may be used to obtain a qualitative understanding of the asteroid impact risk distribution. To answer this question, two impact risk distributions that control for impact effect modelling were generated and compared. The Asteroid Risk Mitigation Optimization and Research (ARMOR) tool, in conjunction with the freely available software OrbFit, was used to project the impact probabilities of listed asteroids with a minimum diameter of 30 m onto the surface of the Earth representing a random sample (15% of all objects) of the hazard list. The resulting 261 impact corridors were visualized on a global map. Furthermore, the impact corridors were combined with Earth population data to estimate the simplified risk (without impact effects) and advanced risk (with impact effects) associated with the direct asteroid impacts that each nation faces from present to 2100 based on this sample. The relationship between risk and population size was examined for the 40 most populous countries and it was apparent that population size is a good proxy for relative risk. The advanced and simplified risk distributions were compared and the alteration of the results based on the introduction of physical impact effects was discussed. Population remained a valid proxy for relative impact risk, but the inclusion of impact effects resulted in significantly different risks, especially when considered at the national level.
In this work we study the effect of disequilibrium processes on mixing ratio profiles of neutral species and on the simulated spectra of a hot Jupiter exoplanet that orbits stars of different spectral types. We also address the impact of stellar activity that should be present to a different degree in all stars with convective envelopes. We used the VULCAN chemical kinetic code to compute number densities of species. The temperature-pressure profile of the atmosphere was computed with the HELIOS code. We also utilized the $tau$-ReX forward model to predict the spectra of planets in primary and secondary eclipses. In order to account for the stellar activity we made use of the observed solar XUV spectrum taken from Virtual Planetary Laboratory (VPL) as a proxy for an active sun-like star. We find large changes in mixing ratios of most chemical species in planets orbiting A-type stars that radiate strong XUV flux inducing a very effective photodissociation. For some species, these changes can propagate very deep into the planetary atmosphere to pressures of around 1 bar. To observe disequilibrium chemistry we favor hot Jupiters with temperatures Teq=1000 K and ultra-hot Jupiters with Teq=3000$ K that also have temperature inversion in their atmospheres. On the other hand, disequilibrium calculations predict little changes in spectra of planets with intermediate temperatures. We also show that stellar activity similar to the one of the modern Sun drives important changes in mixing ratio profiles of atmospheric species. However, these changes take place at very high atmospheric altitudes and thus do not affect predicted spectra. We estimate that the effect of disequilibrium chemistry in planets orbiting nearby bright stars could be robustly detected and studied with future missions with spectroscopic capabilities in infrared such as, e.g., JWST and ARIEL.
We present results of 3D hydrodynamical simulations of HD209458b including a coupled, radiatively-active cloud model ({sc EddySed}). We investigate the role of the mixing by replacing the default convective treatment used in previous works with a more physically relevant mixing treatment ($K_{zz}$) based on global circulation. We find that uncertainty in the efficiency of sedimentation through the sedimentation factor $f_mathrm{sed}$ plays a larger role in shaping cloud thickness and its radiative feedback on the local gas temperatures -- e.g. hot spot shift and day-to-night side temperature gradient -- than the switch in mixing treatment. We demonstrate using our new mixing treatments that simulations with cloud scales which are a fraction of the pressure scale height improve agreement with the observed transmission spectra, the emission spectra, and the Spitzer 4.5 $mathrm{mu m}$ phase curve, although our models are still unable to reproduce the optical and UV transmission spectra. We also find that the inclusion of cloud increases the transit asymmetry in the optical between the east and west limbs, although the difference remains small ($lesssim 1%$).
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