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Fair Prediction with Endogenous Behavior

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 Added by Aaron Roth
 Publication date 2020
and research's language is English




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There is increasing regulatory interest in whether machine learning algorithms deployed in consequential domains (e.g. in criminal justice) treat different demographic groups fairly. However, there are several proposed notions of fairness, typically mutually incompatible. Using criminal justice as an example, we study a model in which society chooses an incarceration rule. Agents of different demographic groups differ in their outside options (e.g. opportunity for legal employment) and decide whether to commit crimes. We show that equalizing type I and type II errors across groups is consistent with the goal of minimizing the overall crime rate; other popular notions of fairness are not.

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64 - Yingkai Li 2021
We consider the model of the data broker selling information to a single agent to maximize his revenue. The agent has private valuation for the additional information, and upon receiving the signal from the data broker, the agent can conduct her own experiment to refine her posterior belief on the states with additional costs. In this paper, we show that in the optimal mechanism, the agent has no incentive to acquire any additional costly information under equilibrium. Still, the ability to acquire additional information distorts the incentives of the agent, and reduces the optimal revenue of the data broker. In addition, we show that under the separable valuation assumption, there is no distortion at the top, and posting a deterministic price for fully revealing the states is optimal when the prior distribution is sufficiently informative or the cost of acquiring additional information is sufficiently high, and is approximately optimal when the type distribution satisfies the monotone hazard rate condition.
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