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Detection of arbitrage opportunities in multi-asset derivatives markets

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 Publication date 2020
  fields Financial
and research's language is English




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We are interested in the existence of equivalent martingale measures and the detection of arbitrage opportunities in markets where several multi-asset derivatives are traded simultaneously. More specifically, we consider a financial market with multiple traded assets whose marginal risk-neutral distributions are known, and assume that several derivatives written on these assets are traded simultaneously. In this setting, there is a bijection between the existence of an equivalent martingale measure and the existence of a copula that couples these marginals. Using this bijection and recent results on improved Frechet-Hoeffding bounds in the presence of additional information, we derive sufficient conditions for the absence of arbitrage and formulate an optimization problem for the detection of a possible arbitrage opportunity. This problem can be solved efficiently using numerical optimization routines. The most interesting practical outcome is the following: we can construct a financial market where each multi-asset derivative is traded within its own no-arbitrage interval, and yet when considered together an arbitrage opportunity may arise.



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A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow is modelled by a random variable that can be expressed as a function of a collection of independent random variables called market factors. With each such X-factor we associate a market information process, the values of which are accessible to market agents. Each information process is a sum of two terms; one contains true information about the value of the market factor; the other represents noise. The noise term is modelled by an independent Brownian bridge. The market filtration is assumed to be that generated by the aggregate of the independent information processes. The price of an asset is given by the expectation of the discounted cash flows in the risk-neutral measure, conditional on the information provided by the market filtration. When the cash flows are the dividend payments associated with equities, an explicit model is obtained for the share-price, and the prices of options on dividend-paying assets are derived. Remarkably, the resulting formula for the price of a European call option is of the Black-Scholes-Merton type. The information-based framework also generates a natural explanation for the origin of stochastic volatility.
In a model independent discrete time financial market, we discuss the richness of the family of martingale measures in relation to different notions of Arbitrage, generated by a class $mathcal{S}$ of significant sets, which we call Arbitrage de la classe $mathcal{S}$. The choice of $mathcal{S}$ reflects into the intrinsic properties of the class of polar sets of martingale measures. In particular: for S=${Omega}$ absence of Model Independent Arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of a martingale measure; for $mathcal{S}$ being the open sets, absence of Open Arbitrage is equivalent to the existence of full support martingale measures. These results are obtained by adopting a technical filtration enlargement and by constructing a universal aggregator of all arbitrage opportunities. We further introduce the notion of market feasibility and provide its characterization via arbitrage conditions. We conclude providing a dual representation of Open Arbitrage in terms of weakly open sets of probability measures, which highlights the robust nature of this concept.
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