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This paper develops a novel stochastic tree ensemble method for nonlinear regression, which we refer to as XBART, short for Accelerated Bayesian Additive Regression Trees. By combining regularization and stochastic search strategies from Bayesian modeling with computationally efficient techniques from recursive partitioning approaches, the new method attains state-of-the-art performance: in many settings it is both faster and more accurate than the widely-used XGBoost algorithm. Via careful simulation studies, we demonstrate that our new approach provides accurate point-wise estimates of the mean function and does so faster than popular alternatives, such as BART, XGBoost and neural networks (using Keras). We also prove a number of basic theoretical results about the new algorithm, including consistency of the single tree version of the model and stationarity of the Markov chain produced by the ensemble version. Furthermore, we demonstrate that initializing standard Bayesian additive regression trees Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) at XBART-fitted trees considerably improves credible interval coverage and reduces total run-time.
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We propose a novel algorithm for large-scale regression problems named histogram transform ensembles (HTE), composed of random rotations, stretchings, and translations. First of all, we investigate the theoretical properties of HTE when the regression function lies in the H{o}lder space $C^{k,alpha}$, $k in mathbb{N}_0$, $alpha in (0,1]$. In the case that $k=0, 1$, we adopt the constant regressors and develop the na{i}ve histogram transforms (NHT). Within the space $C^{0,alpha}$, although almost optimal convergence rates can be derived for both single and ensemble NHT, we fail to show the benefits of ensembles over single estimators theoretically. In contrast, in the subspace $C^{1,alpha}$, we prove that if $d geq 2(1+alpha)/alpha$, the lower bound of the convergence rates for single NHT turns out to be worse than the upper bound of the convergence rates for ensemble NHT. In the other case when $k geq 2$, the NHT may no longer be appropriate in predicting smoother regression functions. Instead, we apply kernel histogram transforms (KHT) equipped with smoother regressors such as support vector machines (SVMs), and it turns out that both single and ensemble KHT enjoy almost optimal convergence rates. Then we validate the above theoretical results by numerical experiments. On the one hand, simulations are conducted to elucidate that ensemble NHT outperform single NHT. On the other hand, the effects of bin sizes on accuracy of both NHT and KHT also accord with theoretical analysis. Last but not least, in the real-data experiments, comparisons between the ensemble KHT, equipped with adaptive histogram transforms, and other state-of-the-art large-scale regression estimators verify the effectiveness and accuracy of our algorithm.
Ensembles of decision trees perform well on many problems, but are not interpretable. In contrast to existing approaches in interpretability that focus on explaining relationships between features and predictions, we propose an alternative approach to interpret tree ensemble classifiers by surfacing representative points for each class -- prototypes. We introduce a new distance for Gradient Boosted Tree models, and propose new, adaptive prototype selection methods with theoretical guarantees, with the flexibility to choose a different number of prototypes in each class. We demonstrate our methods on random forests and gradient boosted trees, showing that the prototypes can perform as well as or even better than the original tree ensemble when used as a nearest-prototype classifier. In a user study, humans were better at predicting the output of a tree ensemble classifier when using prototypes than when using Shapley values, a popular feature attribution method. Hence, prototypes present a viable alternative to feature-based explanations for tree ensembles.
The superior performance of ensemble methods with infinite models are well known. Most of these methods are based on optimization problems in infinite-dimensional spaces with some regularization, for instance, boosting methods and convex neural networks use $L^1$-regularization with the non-negative constraint. However, due to the difficulty of handling $L^1$-regularization, these problems require early stopping or a rough approximation to solve it inexactly. In this paper, we propose a new ensemble learning method that performs in a space of probability measures, that is, our method can handle the $L^1$-constraint and the non-negative constraint in a rigorous way. Such an optimization is realized by proposing a general purpose stochastic optimization method for learning probability measures via parameterization using transport maps on base models. As a result of running the method, a transport map to output an infinite ensemble is obtained, which forms a residual-type network. From the perspective of functional gradient methods, we give a convergence rate as fast as that of a stochastic optimization method for finite dimensional nonconvex problems. Moreover, we show an interior optimality property of a local optimality condition used in our analysis.
Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) are popular machine learning algorithms with implementations such as LightGBM and in popular machine learning toolkits like Scikit-Learn. Many implementations can only produce trees in an offline manner and in a greedy manner. We explore ways to convert existing GBDT implementations to known neural network architectures with minimal performance loss in order to allow decision splits to be updated in an online manner and provide extensions to allow splits points to be altered as a neural architecture search problem. We provide learning bounds for our neural network.
We analyze the convergence behaviour of a recently proposed algorithm for regularized estimation called Dual Augmented Lagrangian (DAL). Our analysis is based on a new interpretation of DAL as a proximal minimization algorithm. We theoretically show under some conditions that DAL converges super-linearly in a non-asymptotic and global sense. Due to a special modelling of sparse estimation problems in the context of machine learning, the assumptions we make are milder and more natural than those made in conventional analysis of augmented Lagrangian algorithms. In addition, the new interpretation enables us to generalize DAL to wide varieties of sparse estimation problems. We experimentally confirm our analysis in a large scale $ell_1$-regularized logistic regression problem and extensively compare the efficiency of DAL algorithm to previously proposed algorithms on both synthetic and benchmark datasets.
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