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Register a new userGeneralization Bounds and Representation Learning for Estimation of Potential Outcomes and Causal Effects
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Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic record keeping has brought attention to the problem of evaluating decisions based on non-experimental observational data. This is the setting of this work. In particular, we study estimation of individual-level causal effects, such as a single patients response to alternative medication, from recorded contexts, decisions and outcomes. We give generalization bounds on the error in estimated effects based on distance measures between groups receiving different treatments, allowing for sample re-weighting. We provide conditions under which our bound is tight and show how it relates to results for unsupervised domain adaptation. Led by our theoretical results, we devise representation learning algorithms that minimize our bound, by regularizing the representations induced treatment group distance, and encourage sharing of information between treatment groups. We extend these algorithms to simultaneously learn a weighted representation to further reduce treatment group distances. Finally, an experimental evaluation on real and synthetic data shows the value of our proposed representation architecture and regularization scheme.
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Learning data representations that are useful for various downstream tasks is a cornerstone of artificial intelligence. While existing methods are typically evaluated on downstream tasks such as classification or generative image quality, we propose to assess representations through their usefulness in downstream control tasks, such as reaching or pushing objects. By training over 10,000 reinforcement learning policies, we extensively evaluate to what extent different representation properties affect out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization. Finally, we demonstrate zero-shot transfer of these policies from simulation to the real world, without any domain randomization or fine-tuning. This paper aims to establish the first systematic characterization of the usefulness of learned representations for real-world OOD downstream tasks.
Motivated by the rising abundance of observational data with continuous treatments, we investigate the problem of estimating the average dose-response curve (ADRF). Available parametric methods are limited in their model space, and previous attempts in leveraging neural network to enhance model expressiveness relied on partitioning continuous treatment into blocks and using separate heads for each block; this however produces in practice discontinuous ADRFs. Therefore, the question of how to adapt the structure and training of neural network to estimate ADRFs remains open. This paper makes two important contributions. First, we propose a novel varying coefficient neural network (VCNet) that improves model expressiveness while preserving continuity of the estimated ADRF. Second, to improve finite sample performance, we generalize targeted regularization to obtain a doubly robust estimator of the whole ADRF curve.
The defining challenge for causal inference from observational data is the presence of `confounders, covariates that affect both treatment assignment and the outcome. To address this challenge, practitioners collect and adjust for the covariates, hoping that they adequately correct for confounding. However, including every observed covariate in the adjustment runs the risk of including `bad controls, variables that induce bias when they are conditioned on. The problem is that we do not always know which variables in the covariate set are safe to adjust for and which are not. To address this problem, we develop Nearly Invariant Causal Estimation (NICE). NICE uses invariant risk minimization (IRM) [Arj19] to learn a representation of the covariates that, under some assumptions, strips out bad controls but preserves sufficient information to adjust for confounding. Adjusting for the learned representation, rather than the covariates themselves, avoids the induced bias and provides valid causal inferences. We evaluate NICE on both synthetic and semi-synthetic data. When the covariates contain unknown collider variables and other bad controls, NICE performs better than adjusting for all the covariates.
Generalization error (also known as the out-of-sample error) measures how well the hypothesis learned from training data generalizes to previously unseen data. Proving tight generalization error bounds is a central question in statistical learning theory. In this paper, we obtain generalization error bounds for learning general non-convex objectives, which has attracted significant attention in recent years. We develop a new framework, termed Bayes-Stability, for proving algorithm-dependent generalization error bounds. The new framework combines ideas from both the PAC-Bayesian theory and the notion of algorithmic stability. Applying the Bayes-Stability method, we obtain new data-dependent generalization bounds for stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD) and several other noisy gradient methods (e.g., with momentum, mini-batch and acceleration, Entropy-SGD). Our result recovers (and is typically tighter than) a recent result in Mou et al. (2018) and improves upon the results in Pensia et al. (2018). Our experiments demonstrate that our data-dependent bounds can distinguish randomly labelled data from normal data, which provides an explanation to the intriguing phenomena observed in Zhang et al. (2017a). We also study the setting where the total loss is the sum of a bounded loss and an additional ell_2 regularization term. We obtain new generalization bounds for the continuous Langevin dynamic in this setting by developing a new Log-Sobolev inequality for the parameter distribution at any time. Our new bounds are more desirable when the noisy level of the process is not small, and do not become vacuous even when T tends to infinity.
The vicinal risk minimization (VRM) principle, first proposed by citet{vapnik1999nature}, is an empirical risk minimization (ERM) variant that replaces Dirac masses with vicinal functions. Although there is strong numerical evidence showing that VRM outperforms ERM if appropriate vicinal functions are chosen, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of VRM is still lacking. In this paper, we study the generalization bounds for VRM. Our results support Vapniks original arguments and additionally provide deeper insights into VRM. First, we prove that the complexity of function classes convolving with vicinal functions can be controlled by that of the original function classes under the assumption that the function class is composed of Lipschitz-continuous functions. Then, the resulting generalization bounds for VRM suggest that the generalization performance of VRM is also effected by the choice of vicinity function and the quality of function classes. These findings can be used to examine whether the choice of vicinal function is appropriate for the VRM-based learning setting. Finally, we provide a theoretical explanation for existing VRM models, e.g., uniform distribution-based models, Gaussian distribution-based models, and mixup models.
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