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Register a new userInfluenza Modeling Based on Massive Feature Engineering and International Flow Deconvolution
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In this article, we focus on the analysis of the potential factors driving the spread of influenza, and possible policies to mitigate the adverse effects of the disease. To be precise, we first invoke discrete Fourier transform (DFT) to conclude a yearly periodic regional structure in the influenza activity, thus safely restricting ourselves to the analysis of the yearly influenza behavior. Then we collect a massive number of possible region-wise indicators contributing to the influenza mortality, such as consumption, immunization, sanitation, water quality, and other indicators from external data, with $1170$ dimensions in total. We extract significant features from the high dimensional indicators using a combination of data analysis techniques, including matrix completion, support vector machines (SVM), autoencoders, and principal component analysis (PCA). Furthermore, we model the international flow of migration and trade as a convolution on regional influenza activity, and solve the deconvolution problem as higher-order perturbations to the linear regression, thus separating regional and international factors related to the influenza mortality. Finally, both the original model and the perturbed model are tested on regional examples, as validations of our models. Pertaining to the policy, we make a proposal based on the connectivity data along with the previously extracted significant features to alleviate the impact of influenza, as well as efficiently propagate and carry out the policies. We conclude that environmental features and economic features are of significance to the influenza mortality. The model can be easily adapted to model other types of infectious diseases.
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In digital advertising, Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) are very important metrics for evaluating ad performance. As a result, ad event prediction systems are vital and widely used for sponsored search and display advertising as well as Real-Time Bidding (RTB). In this work, we introduce an enhanced method for ad event prediction (i.e. clicks,
Machine learning models, such as neural networks, decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting machines, accept a feature vector, and provide a prediction. These models learn in a supervised fashion where we provide feature vectors mapped to the expected output. It is common practice to engineer new features from the provided feature set. Such engineered features will either augment or replace portions of the existing feature vector. These engineered features are essentially calculated fields based on the values of the other features. Engineering such features is primarily a manual, time-consuming task. Additionally, each type of model will respond differently to different kinds of engineered features. This paper reports empirical research to demonstrate what kinds of engineered features are best suited to various machine learning model types. We provide this recommendation by generating several datasets that we designed to benefit from a particular type of engineered feature. The experiment demonstrates to what degree the machine learning model can synthesize the needed feature on its own. If a model can synthesize a planned feature, it is not necessary to provide that feature. The research demonstrated that the studied models do indeed perform differently with various types of engineered features.
Uplift modeling is a predictive modeling technique that estimates the user-level incremental effect of a treatment using machine learning models. It is often used for targeting promotions and advertisements, as well as for the personalization of product offerings. In these applications, there are often hundreds of features available to build such models. Keeping all the features in a model can be costly and inefficient. Feature selection is an essential step in the modeling process for multiple reasons: improving the estimation accuracy by eliminating irrelevant features, accelerating model training and prediction speed, reducing the monitoring and maintenance workload for feature data pipeline, and providing better model interpretation and diagnostics capability. However, feature selection methods for uplift modeling have been rarely discussed in the literature. Although there are various feature selection methods for standard machine learning models, we will demonstrate that those methods are sub-optimal for solving the feature selection problem for uplift modeling. To address this problem, we introduce a set of feature selection methods designed specifically for uplift modeling, including both filter methods and embedded methods. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed feature selection methods, we use different uplift models and measure the accuracy of each model with a different number of selected features. We use both synthetic and real data to conduct these experiments. We also implemented the proposed filter methods in an open source Python package (CausalML).
Much work has been done on feature selection. Existing methods are based on document frequency, such as Chi-Square Statistic, Information Gain etc. However, these methods have two shortcomings: one is that they are not reliable for low-frequency terms, and the other is that they only count whether one term occurs in a document and ignore the term frequency. Actually, high-frequency terms within a specific category are often regards as discriminators. This paper focuses on how to construct the feature selection function based on term frequency, and proposes a new approach based on $t$-test, which is used to measure the diversity of the distributions of a term between the specific category and the entire corpus. Extensive comparative experiments on two text corpora using three classifiers show that our new approach is comparable to or or slightly better than the state-of-the-art feature selection methods (i.e., $chi^2$, and IG) in terms of macro-$F_1$ and micro-$F_1$.
Feature engineering, a crucial step of machine learning, aims to extract useful features from raw data to improve data quality. In recent years, great efforts have been devoted to Automated Feature Engineering (AutoFE) to replace expensive human labor. However, existing methods are computationally demanding due to treating AutoFE as a coarse-grained black-box optimization problem over a discrete space. In this work, we propose an efficient gradient-based method called DIFER to perform differentiable automated feature engineering in a continuous vector space. DIFER selects potential features based on evolutionary algorithm and leverages an encoder-predictor-decoder controller to optimize existing features. We map features into the continuous vector space via the encoder, optimize the embedding along the gradient direction induced by the predicted score, and recover better features from the optimized embedding by the decoder. Extensive experiments on classification and regression datasets demonstrate that DIFER can significantly improve the performance of various machine learning algorithms and outperform current state-of-the-art AutoFE methods in terms of both efficiency and performance.
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