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Predictions in an eternally inflating multiverse are meaningless unless we specify the probability measure. The scale-factor cutoff is perhaps the simplest and most successful measure which avoid catastrophic problems such as the youngness paradox, runaway problem, and Boltzmann brain problem, but it is not well defined in contracting regions with a negative cosmological constant. In this paper, we propose a new measure with properties similar to the scale-factor cutoff which is well defined everywhere. The measure is defined by a cutoff in the 4-volume spanned by infinitesimal comoving neighborhoods in a congruence of timelike geodesics. The probability distributions for the cosmological constant and for the curvature parameter in this measure are similar to those for the scale factor cutoff and are in a good agreement with observations.
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To make predictions for an eternally inflating multiverse, one must adopt a procedure for regulating its divergent spacetime volume. Recently, a new test of such spacetime measures has emerged: normal observers - who evolve in pocket universes cooling from hot big bang conditions - must not be vastly outnumbered by Boltzmann brains - freak observers that pop in and out of existence as a result of rare quantum fluctuations. If the Boltzmann brains prevail, then a randomly chosen observer would be overwhelmingly likely to be surrounded by an empty world, where all but vacuum energy has redshifted away, rather than the rich structure that we observe. Using the scale-factor cutoff measure, we calculate the ratio of Boltzmann brains to normal observers. We find the ratio to be finite, and give an expression for it in terms of Boltzmann brain nucleation rates and vacuum decay rates. We discuss the conditions that these rates must obey for the ratio to be acceptable, and we discuss estimates of the rates under a variety of assumptions.
Using the recently introduced method to calculate bubble abundances in an eternally inflating spacetime, we investigate the volume distribution for the cosmological constant $Lambda$ in the context of the Bousso-Polchinski landscape model. We find that the resulting distribution has a staggered appearance which is in sharp contrast to the heuristically expected flat distribution. Previous successful predictions for the observed value of $Lambda$ have hinged on the assumption of a flat volume distribution. To reconcile our staggered distribution with observations for $Lambda$, the BP model would have to produce a huge number of vacua in the anthropic range $DeltaLambda_A$ of $Lambda$, so that the distribution could conceivably become smooth after averaging over some suitable scale $deltaLambdallDeltaLambda_A$.
We study cosmological inflation within a recently proposed framework of perturbative moduli stabilisation in type IIB/F theory compactifications on Calabi-Yau threefolds. The stabilisation mechanism utilises three stacks of magnetised 7-branes and relies on perturbative corrections to the Kahler potential that grow logarithmically in the transverse sizes of co-dimension two due to local tadpoles of closed string states in the bulk. The inflaton is the Kahler modulus associated with the internal compactification volume that starts rolling down the scalar potential from an initial condition around its maximum. Although the parameter space allows moduli stabilisation in de Sitter space, the resulting number of e-foldings is too low. An extra uplifting source of the vacuum energy is then required to achieve phenomenologically viable inflation and a positive (although tiny) vacuum energy at the minimum. Here we use, as an example, a new Fayet-Iliopoulos term proposed recently in supergravity that can be written for a non R-symmetry U(1) and is gauge invariant at the Lagrangian level; its possible origin though in string theory remains an open interesting problem.
An eternally inflating universe produces an infinite amount of spatial volume, so every possible event happens an infinite number of times, and it is impossible to define probabilities in terms of frequencies. This problem is usually addressed by means of a measure, which regulates the infinities and produces meaningful predictions. I argue that any measure should obey certain general axioms, but then give a simple toy model in which one can prove that no measure obeying the axioms exists. In certain cases of eternal inflation there are measures that obey the axioms, but all such measures appear to be unacceptable for other reasons. Thus the problem of defining sensible probabilities in eternal inflation seems not be solved.
It is well known that anthropic selection from a landscape with a flat prior distribution of cosmological constant Lambda gives a reasonable fit to observation. However, a realistic model of the multiverse has a physical volume that diverges with time, and the predicted distribution of Lambda depends on how the spacetime volume is regulated. We study a simple model of the multiverse with probabilities regulated by a scale-factor cutoff, and calculate the resulting distribution, considering both positive and negative values of Lambda. The results are in good agreement with observation. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff strongly suppresses the probability for values of Lambda that are more than about ten times the observed value. We also discuss several qualitative features of the scale-factor cutoff, including aspects of the distributions of the curvature parameter Omega and the primordial density contrast Q.
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