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Register a new userAnalyzing Chinas Consumer Price Index Comparatively with that of United States
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This paper provides a thorough analysis on the dynamic structures and predictability of Chinas Consumer Price Index (CPI-CN), with a comparison to those of the United States. Despite the differences in the two leading economies, both series can be well modeled by a class of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Covariates (S-ARIMAX). The CPI-CN series possess regular patterns of dynamics with stable annual cycles and strong Spring Festival effects, with fitting and forecasting errors largely comparable to their US counterparts. Finally, for the CPI-CN, the diffusion index (DI) approach offers improved predictions than the S-ARIMAX models.
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We seek to investigate the effect of oil price on UAE goods trade deficit with the U.S. The current increase in the price of oil and the absence of significant studies in the UAE economy are the main motives behind the current study. Our paper focuses on a small portion of UAE trade, which is 11% of the UAE foreign trade, however, it is a significant part since the U.S. is a major trade partner with the UAE. The current paper concludes that oil price has a significant positive influence on real imports. At the same time, oil price does not have a significant effect on real exports. As a result, any increase in the price of oil increases goods trade deficit of the UAE economy. The policy implication of the current paper is that the revenue of oil sales is not used to encourage UAE real exports.
In many applications, the dataset under investigation exhibits heterogeneous regimes that are more appropriately modeled using piece-wise linear models for each of the data segments separated by change-points. Although there have been much work on change point linear regression for the low dimensional case, high-dimensional change point regression is severely underdeveloped. Motivated by the analysis of Minnesota House Price Index data, we propose a fully Bayesian framework for fitting changing linear regression models in high-dimensional settings. Using segment-specific shrinkage and diffusion priors, we deliver full posterior inference for the change points and simultaneously obtain posterior probabilities of variable selection in each segment via an efficient Gibbs sampler. Additionally, our method can detect an unknown number of change points and accommodate different variable selection constraints like grouping or partial selection. We substantiate the accuracy of our method using simulation experiments for a wide range of scenarios. We apply our approach for a macro-economic analysis of Minnesota house price index data. The results strongly favor the change point model over a homogeneous (no change point) high-dimensional regression model.
This paper extends endogenous economic growth models to incorporate knowledge externality. We explores whether spatial knowledge spillovers among regions exist, whether spatial knowledge spillovers promote regional innovative activities, and whether external knowledge spillovers affect the evolution of regional innovations in the long run. We empirically verify the theoretical results through applying spatial statistics and econometric model in the analysis of panel data of 31 regions in China. An accurate estimate of the range of knowledge spillovers is achieved and the convergence of regional knowledge growth rate is found, with clear evidences that developing regions benefit more from external knowledge spillovers than developed regions.
Dynamic model averaging (DMA) combines the forecasts of a large number of dynamic linear models (DLMs) to predict the future value of a time series. The performance of DMA critically depends on the appropriate choice of two forgetting factors. The first of these controls the speed of adaptation of the coefficient vector of each DLM, while the second enables time variation in the model averaging stage. In this paper we develop a novel, adaptive dynamic model averaging (ADMA) methodology. The proposed methodology employs a stochastic optimisation algorithm that sequentially updates the forgetting factor of each DLM, and uses a state-of-the-art non-parametric model combination algorithm from the prediction with expert advice literature, which offers finite-time performance guarantees. An empirical application to quarterly UK house price data suggests that ADMA produces more accurate forecasts than the benchmark autoregressive model, as well as competing DMA specifications.
Instrumental variables (IV) regression is a popular method for the estimation of the endogenous treatment effects. Conventional IV methods require all the instruments are relevant and valid. However, this is impractical especially in high-dimensional models when we consider a large set of candidate IVs. In this paper, we propose an IV estimator robust to the existence of both the invalid and irrelevant instruments (called R2IVE) for the estimation of endogenous treatment effects. This paper extends the scope of Kang et al. (2016) by considering a true high-dimensional IV model and a nonparametric reduced form equation. It is shown that our procedure can select the relevant and valid instruments consistently and the proposed R2IVE is root-n consistent and asymptotically normal. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the R2IVE performs favorably compared to the existing high-dimensional IV estimators (such as, NAIVE (Fan and Zhong, 2018) and sisVIVE (Kang et al., 2016)) when invalid instruments exist. In the empirical study, we revisit the classic question of trade and growth (Frankel and Romer, 1999).
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