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Register a new userMinimum Detectable Effect Size Computations for Cluster-Level Regression Discontinuity: Quadratic Functional Form and Beyond
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Metin Bulus
Publication date
2019
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
Authors
Metin Bulus
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This study extends power formulas proposed by Schochet (2008) assuming that the cluster-level score variable follows quadratic functional form. Results reveal that we need not be concerned with treatment by linear term interaction, and polynomial degree up to second order for symmetric truncation intervals. In comparison, every slight change in the functional form alters sample size requirements for asymmetric truncation intervals. Finally, an empirical framework beyond quadratic functional form is provided when the asymptotic variance of the treatment effect is untraceable. In this case, the CRD design effect is either computed from moments of the sample or approximate population moments via simulation. Formulas for quadratic functional form and the extended empirical framework are implemented in the cosa R package and companion Shiny web application.
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This paper presents tests to formally choose between regression models using different derivatives of a functional covariate in scalar-on-function regression. We demonstrate that for linear regression, models using different derivatives can be nested within a model that includes point-impact effects at the end-points of the observed functions. Contrasts can then be employed to test the specification of different derivatives. When nonlinear regression models are defined, we apply a $J$ test to determine the statistical significance of the nonlinear structure between a functional covariate and a scalar response. The finite-sample performance of these methods is verified in simulation, and their practical application is demonstrated using a chemometric data set.
One of the most popular methodologies for estimating the average treatment effect at the threshold in a regression discontinuity design is local linear regression (LLR), which places larger weight on units closer to the threshold. We propose a Gaussian process regression methodology that acts as a Bayesian analog to LLR for regression discontinuity designs. Our methodology provides a flexible fit for treatment and control responses by placing a general prior on the mean response functions. Furthermore, unlike LLR, our methodology can incorporate uncertainty in how units are weighted when estimating the treatment effect. We prove our method is consistent in estimating the average treatment effect at the threshold. Furthermore, we find via simulation that our method exhibits promising coverage, interval length, and mean squared error properties compared to standard LLR and state-of-the-art LLR methodologies. Finally, we explore the performance of our method on a real-world example by studying the impact of being a first-round draft pick on the performance and playing time of basketball players in the National Basketball Association.
Space-filling designs are important in computer experiments, which are critical for building a cheap surrogate model that adequately approximates an expensive computer code. Many design construction techniques in the existing literature are only applicable for rectangular bounded space, but in real world applications, the input space can often be non-rectangular because of constraints on the input variables. One solution to generate designs in a constrained space is to first generate uniformly distributed samples in the feasible region, and then use them as the candidate set to construct the designs. Sequentially Constrained Monte Carlo (SCMC) is the state-of-the-art technique for candidate generation, but it still requires large number of constraint evaluations, which is problematic especially when the constraints are expensive to evaluate. Thus, to reduce constraint evaluations and improve efficiency, we propose the Constrained Minimum Energy Design (CoMinED) that utilizes recent advances in deterministic sampling methods. Extensive simulation results on 15 benchmark problems with dimensions ranging from 2 to 13 are provided for demonstrating the improved performance of CoMinED over the existing methods.
Massive data bring the big challenges of memory and computation for analysis. These challenges can be tackled by taking subsamples from the full data as a surrogate. For functional data, it is common to collect multiple measurements over their domains, which require even more memory and computation time when the sample size is large. The computation would be much more intensive when statistical inference is required through bootstrap samples. To the best of our knowledge, this article is the first attempt to study the subsampling method for the functional linear model. We propose an optimal subsampling method based on the functional L-optimality criterion. When the response is a discrete or categorical variable, we further extend our proposed functional L-optimality subsampling (FLoS) method to the functional generalized linear model. We establish the asymptotic properties of the estimators by the FLoS method. The finite sample performance of our proposed FLoS method is investigated by extensive simulation studies. The FLoS method is further demonstrated by analyzing two large-scale datasets: the global climate data and the kidney transplant data. The analysis results on these data show that the FLoS method is much better than the uniform subsampling approach and can well approximate the results based on the full data while dramatically reducing the computation time and memory.
Quadratic regression goes beyond the linear model by simultaneously including main effects and interactions between the covariates. The problem of interaction estimation in high dimensional quadratic regression has received extensive attention in the past decade. In this article we introduce a novel method which allows us to estimate the main effects and interactions separately. Unlike existing methods for ultrahigh dimensional quadratic regressions, our proposal does not require the widely used heredity assumption. In addition, our proposed estimates have explicit formulas and obey the invariance principle at the population level. We estimate the interactions of matrix form under penalized convex loss function. The resulting estimates are shown to be consistent even when the covariate dimension is an exponential order of the sample size. We develop an efficient ADMM algorithm to implement the penalized estimation. This ADMM algorithm fully explores the cheap computational cost of matrix multiplication and is much more efficient than existing penalized methods such as all pairs LASSO. We demonstrate the promising performance of our proposal through extensive numerical studies.
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