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Event sequences can be modeled by temporal point processes (TPPs) to capture their asynchronous and probabilistic nature. We propose an intensity-free framework that directly models the point process distribution by utilizing normalizing flows. This approach is capable of capturing highly complex temporal distributions and does not rely on restrictive parametric forms. Comparisons with state-of-the-art baseline models on both synthetic and challenging real-life datasets show that the proposed framework is effective at modeling the stochasticity of discrete event sequences.
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Partial observations of continuous time-series dynamics at arbitrary time stamps exist in many disciplines. Fitting this type of data using statistical models with continuous dynamics is not only promising at an intuitive level but also has practical benefits, including the ability to generate continuous trajectories and to perform inference on previously unseen time stamps. Despite exciting progress in this area, the existing models still face challenges in terms of their representational power and the quality of their variational approximations. We tackle these challenges with continuous latent process flows (CLPF), a principled architecture decoding continuous latent processes into continuous observable processes using a time-dependent normalizing flow driven by a stochastic differential equation. To optimize our model using maximum likelihood, we propose a novel piecewise construction of a variational posterior process and derive the corresponding variational lower bound using trajectory re-weighting. Our ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our contributions in various inference tasks on irregular time grids. Comparisons to state-of-the-art baselines show our models favourable performance on both synthetic and real-world time-series data.
Generative models have proven to be an outstanding tool for representing high-dimensional probability distributions and generating realistic-looking images. An essential characteristic of generative models is their ability to produce multi-modal outputs. However, while training, they are often susceptible to mode collapse, that is models are limited in mapping input noise to only a few modes of the true data distribution. In this work, we draw inspiration from Determinantal Point Process (DPP) to propose an unsupervised penalty loss that alleviates mode collapse while producing higher quality samples. DPP is an elegant probabilistic measure used to model negative correlations within a subset and hence quantify its diversity. We use DPP kernel to model the diversity in real data as well as in synthetic data. Then, we devise an objective term that encourages generators to synthesize data with similar diversity to real data. In contrast to previous state-of-the-art generative models that tend to use additional trainable parameters or complex training paradigms, our method does not change the original training scheme. Embedded in an adversarial training and variational autoencoder, our Generative DPP approach shows a consistent resistance to mode-collapse on a wide variety of synthetic data and natural image datasets including MNIST, CIFAR10, and CelebA, while outperforming state-of-the-art methods for data-efficiency, generation quality, and convergence-time whereas being 5.8x faster than its closest competitor.
We examine the general problem of inter-domain Gaussian Processes (GPs): problems where the GP realization and the noisy observations of that realization lie on different domains. When the mapping between those domains is linear, such as integration or differentiation, inference is still closed form. However, many of the scaling and approximation techniques that our community has developed do not apply to this setting. In this work, we introduce the hierarchical inducing point GP (HIP-GP), a scalable inter-domain GP inference method that enables us to improve the approximation accuracy by increasing the number of inducing points to the millions. HIP-GP, which relies on inducing points with grid structure and a stationary kernel assumption, is suitable for low-dimensional problems. In developing HIP-GP, we introduce (1) a fast whitening strategy, and (2) a novel preconditioner for conjugate gradients which can be helpful in general GP settings. Our code is available at https: //github.com/cunningham-lab/hipgp.
Since the first coronavirus case was identified in the U.S. on Jan. 21, more than 1 million people in the U.S. have confirmed cases of COVID-19. This infectious respiratory disease has spread rapidly across more than 3000 counties and 50 states in the U.S. and have exhibited evolutionary clustering and complex triggering patterns. It is essential to understand the complex spacetime intertwined propagation of this disease so that accurate prediction or smart external intervention can be carried out. In this paper, we model the propagation of the COVID-19 as spatio-temporal point processes and propose a generative and intensity-free model to track the spread of the disease. We further adopt a generative adversarial imitation learning framework to learn the model parameters. In comparison with the traditional likelihood-based learning methods, this imitation learning framework does not need to prespecify an intensity function, which alleviates the model-misspecification. Moreover, the adversarial learning procedure bypasses the difficult-to-evaluate integral involved in the likelihood evaluation, which makes the model inference more scalable with the data and variables. We showcase the dynamic learning performance on the COVID-19 confirmed cases in the U.S. and evaluate the social distancing policy based on the learned generative model.
The task of mapping two or more distributions to a shared representation has many applications including fair representations, batch effect mitigation, and unsupervised domain adaptation. However, most existing formulations only consider the setting of two distributions, and moreover, do not have an identifiable, unique shared latent representation. We use optimal transport theory to consider a natural multiple distribution extension of the Monge assignment problem we call the symmetric Monge map problem and show that it is equivalent to the Wasserstein barycenter problem. Yet, the maps to the barycenter are challenging to estimate. Prior methods often ignore transportation cost, rely on adversarial methods, or only work for discrete distributions. Therefore, our goal is to estimate invertible maps between two or more distributions and their corresponding barycenter via a simple iterative flow method. Our method decouples each iteration into two subproblems: 1) estimate simple distributions and 2) estimate the invertible maps to the barycenter via known closed-form OT results. Our empirical results give evidence that this iterative algorithm approximates the maps to the barycenter.
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