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Register a new userDiscrete Residual Flow for Probabilistic Pedestrian Behavior Prediction
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Added by
Ajay Jain
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Self-driving vehicles plan around both static and dynamic objects, applying predictive models of behavior to estimate future locations of the objects in the environment. However, future behavior is inherently uncertain, and models of motion that produce deterministic outputs are limited to short timescales. Particularly difficult is the prediction of human behavior. In this work, we propose the discrete residual flow network (DRF-Net), a convolutional neural network for human motion prediction that captures the uncertainty inherent in long-range motion forecasting. In particular, our learned network effectively captures multimodal posteriors over future human motion by predicting and updating a discretized distribution over spatial locations. We compare our model against several strong competitors and show that our model outperforms all baselines.
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Understanding crowd motion dynamics is critical to real-world applications, e.g., surveillance systems and autonomous driving. This is challenging because it requires effectively modeling the socially aware crowd spatial interaction and complex temporal dependencies. We believe attention is the most important factor for trajectory prediction. In this paper, we present STAR, a Spatio-Temporal grAph tRansformer framework, which tackles trajectory prediction by only attention mechanisms. STAR models intra-graph crowd interaction by TGConv, a novel Transformer-based graph convolution mechanism. The inter-graph temporal dependencies are modeled by separate temporal Transformers. STAR captures complex spatio-temporal interactions by interleaving between spatial and temporal Transformers. To calibrate the temporal prediction for the long-lasting effect of disappeared pedestrians, we introduce a read-writable external memory module, consistently being updated by the temporal Transformer. We show that with only attention mechanism, STAR achieves state-of-the-art performance on 5 commonly used real-world pedestrian prediction datasets.
Pedestrian behavior prediction is one of the major challenges for intelligent driving systems. Pedestrians often exhibit complex behaviors influenced by various contextual elements. To address this problem, we propose BiPed, a multitask learning framework that simultaneously predicts trajectories and actions of pedestrians by relying on multimodal data. Our method benefits from 1) a bifold encoding approach where different data modalities are processed independently allowing them to develop their own representations, and jointly to produce a representation for all modalities using shared parameters; 2) a novel interaction modeling technique that relies on categorical semantic parsing of the scenes to capture interactions between target pedestrians and their surroundings; and 3) a bifold prediction mechanism that uses both independent and shared decoding of multimodal representations. Using public pedestrian behavior benchmark datasets for driving, PIE and JAAD, we highlight the benefits of the proposed method for behavior prediction and show that our model achieves state-of-the-art performance and improves trajectory and action prediction by up to 22% and 9% respectively. We further investigate the contributions of the proposed reasoning techniques via extensive ablation studies.
Accurate prediction of pedestrian crossing behaviors by autonomous vehicles can significantly improve traffic safety. Existing approaches often model pedestrian behaviors using trajectories or poses but do not offer a deeper semantic interpretation of a persons actions or how actions influence a pedestrians intention to cross in the future. In this work, we follow the neuroscience and psychological literature to define pedestrian crossing behavior as a combination of an unobserved inner will (a probabilistic representation of binary intent of crossing vs. not crossing) and a set of multi-class actions (e.g., walking, standing, etc.). Intent generates actions, and the future actions in turn reflect the intent. We present a novel multi-task network that predicts future pedestrian actions and uses predicted future action as a prior to detect the present intent and action of the pedestrian. We also designed an attention relation network to incorporate external environmental contexts thus further improve intent and action detection performance. We evaluated our approach on two naturalistic driving datasets, PIE and JAAD, and extensive experiments show significantly improved and more explainable results for both intent detection and action prediction over state-of-the-art approaches. Our code is available at: https://github.com/umautobots/pedestrian_intent_action_detection.
Predicting human behavior is a difficult and crucial task required for motion planning. It is challenging in large part due to the highly uncertain and multi-modal set of possible outcomes in real-world domains such as autonomous driving. Beyond single MAP trajectory prediction, obtaining an accurate probability distribution of the future is an area of active interest. We present MultiPath, which leverages a fixed set of future state-sequence anchors that correspond to modes of the trajectory distribution. At inference, our model predicts a discrete distribution over the anchors and, for each anchor, regresses offsets from anchor waypoints along with uncertainties, yielding a Gaussian mixture at each time step. Our model is efficient, requiring only one forward inference pass to obtain multi-modal future distributions, and the output is parametric, allowing compact communication and analytical probabilistic queries. We show on several datasets that our model achieves more accurate predictions, and compared to sampling baselines, does so with an order of magnitude fewer trajectories.
Predicting the future motion of multiple agents is necessary for planning in dynamic environments. This task is challenging for autonomous driving since agents (e.g., vehicles and pedestrians) and their associated behaviors may be diverse and influence each other. Most prior work has focused on first predicting independent futures for each agent based on all past motion, and then planning against these independent predictions. However, planning against fixed predictions can suffer from the inability to represent the future interaction possibilities between different agents, leading to sub-optimal planning. In this work, we formulate a model for predicting the behavior of all agents jointly in real-world driving environments in a unified manner. Inspired by recent language modeling approaches, we use a masking strategy as the query to our model, enabling one to invoke a single model to predict agent behavior in many ways, such as potentially conditioned on the goal or full future trajectory of the autonomous vehicle or the behavior of other agents in the environment. Our model architecture fuses heterogeneous world state in a unified Transformer architecture by employing attention across road elements, agent interactions and time steps. We evaluate our approach on autonomous driving datasets for behavior prediction, and achieve state-of-the-art performance. Our work demonstrates that formulating the problem of behavior prediction in a unified architecture with a masking strategy may allow us to have a single model that can perform multiple motion prediction and planning related tasks effectively.
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