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Register a new userGenerative Learning of Counterfactual for Synthetic Control Applications in Econometrics
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A common statistical problem in econometrics is to estimate the impact of a treatment on a treated unit given a control sample with untreated outcomes. Here we develop a generative learning approach to this problem, learning the probability distribution of the data, which can be used for downstream tasks such as post-treatment counterfactual prediction and hypothesis testing. We use control samples to transform the data to a Gaussian and homoschedastic form and then perform Gaussian process analysis in Fourier space, evaluating the optimal Gaussian kernel via non-parametric power spectrum estimation. We combine this Gaussian prior with the data likelihood given by the pre-treatment data of the single unit, to obtain the synthetic prediction of the unit post-treatment, which minimizes the error variance of synthetic prediction. Given the generative model the minimum variance counterfactual is unique, and comes with an associated error covariance matrix. We extend this basic formalism to include correlations of primary variable with other covariates of interest. Given the probabilistic description of generative model we can compare synthetic data prediction with real data to address the question of whether the treatment had a statistically significant impact. For this purpose we develop a hypothesis testing approach and evaluate the Bayes factor. We apply the method to the well studied example of California (CA) tobacco sales tax of 1988. We also perform a placebo analysis using control states to validate our methodology. Our hypothesis testing method suggests 5.8:1 odds in favor of CA tobacco sales tax having an impact on the tobacco sales, a value that is at least three times higher than any of the 38 control states.
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A key to causal inference with observational data is achieving balance in predictive features associated with each treatment type. Recent literature has explored representation learning to achieve this goal. In this work, we discuss the pitfalls of these strategies - such as a steep trade-off between achieving balance and predictive power - and present a remedy via the integration of balancing weights in causal learning. Specifically, we theoretically link balance to the quality of propensity estimation, emphasize the importance of identifying a proper target population, and elaborate on the complementary roles of feature balancing and weight adjustments. Using these concepts, we then develop an algorithm for flexible, scalable and accurate estimation of causal effects. Finally, we show how the learned weighted representations may serve to facilitate alternative causal learning procedures with appealing statistical features. We conduct an extensive set of experiments on both synthetic examples and standard benchmarks, and report encouraging results relative to state-of-the-art baselines.
We introduce a method by which a generative model learning the joint distribution between actions and future states can be used to automatically infer a control scheme for any desired reward function, which may be altered on the fly without retraining the model. In this method, the problem of action selection is reduced to one of gradient descent on the latent space of the generative model, with the model itself providing the means of evaluating outcomes and finding the gradient, much like how the reward network in Deep Q-Networks (DQN) provides gradient information for the action generator. Unlike DQN or Actor-Critic, which are conditional models for a specific reward, using a generative model of the full joint distribution permits the reward to be changed on the fly. In addition, the generated futures can be inspected to gain insight in to what the network thinks will happen, and to what went wrong when the outcomes deviate from prediction.
Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) and its variant, Max Sliced-Wasserstein distance (Max-SW), have been used widely in the recent years due to their fast computation and scalability even when the probability measures lie in a very high dimensional space. However, SW requires many unnecessary projection samples to approximate its value while Max-SW only uses the most important projection, which ignores the information of other useful directions. In order to account for these weaknesses, we propose a novel distance, named Distributional Sliced-Wasserstein distance (DSW), that finds an optimal distribution over projections that can balance between exploring distinctive projecting directions and the informativeness of projections themselves. We show that the DSW is a generalization of Max-SW, and it can be computed efficiently by searching for the optimal push-forward measure over a set of probability measures over the unit sphere satisfying certain regularizing constraints that favor distinct directions. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments with large-scale datasets to demonstrate the favorable performances of the proposed distances over the previous sliced-based distances in generative modeling applications.
In this work, we propose an introspection technique for deep neural networks that relies on a generative model to instigate salient editing of the input image for model interpretation. Such modification provides the fundamental interventional operation that allows us to obtain answers to counterfactual inquiries, i.e., what meaningful change can be made to the input image in order to alter the prediction. We demonstrate how to reveal interesting properties of the given classifiers by utilizing the proposed introspection approach on both the MNIST and the CelebA dataset.
Progressively applying Gaussian noise transforms complex data distributions to approximately Gaussian. Reversing this dynamic defines a generative model. When the forward noising process is given by a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE), Song et al. (2021) demonstrate how the time inhomogeneous drift of the associated reverse-time SDE may be estimated using score-matching. A limitation of this approach is that the forward-time SDE must be run for a sufficiently long time for the final distribution to be approximately Gaussian. In contrast, solving the Schrodinger Bridge problem (SB), i.e. an entropy-regularized optimal transport problem on path spaces, yields diffusions which generate samples from the data distribution in finite time. We present Diffusion SB (DSB), an original approximation of the Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) procedure to solve the SB problem, and provide theoretical analysis along with generative modeling experiments. The first DSB iteration recovers the methodology proposed by Song et al. (2021), with the flexibility of using shorter time intervals, as subsequent DSB iterations reduce the discrepancy between the final-time marginal of the forward (resp. backward) SDE with respect to the prior (resp. data) distribution. Beyond generative modeling, DSB offers a widely applicable computational optimal transport tool as the continuous state-space analogue of the popular Sinkhorn algorithm (Cuturi, 2013).
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