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Register a new userEarly Prediction of Sepsis From Clinical Datavia Heterogeneous Event Aggregation
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Sepsis is a life-threatening condition that seriously endangers millions of people over the world. Hopefully, with the widespread availability of electronic health records (EHR), predictive models that can effectively deal with clinical sequential data increase the possibility to predict sepsis and take early preventive treatment. However, the early prediction is challenging because patients sequential data in EHR contains temporal interactions of multiple clinical events. And capturing temporal interactions in the long event sequence is hard for traditional LSTM. Rather than directly applying the LSTM model to the event sequences, our proposed model firstly aggregates heterogeneous clinical events in a short period and then captures temporal interactions of the aggregated representations with LSTM. Our proposed Heterogeneous Event Aggregation can not only shorten the length of clinical event sequence but also help to retain temporal interactions of both categorical and numerical features of clinical events in the multiple heads of the aggregation representations. In the PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2019, with the team named PKU_DLIB, our proposed model, in high efficiency, achieved utility score (0.321) in the full test set.
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Machine learning for healthcare often trains models on de-identified datasets with randomly-shifted calendar dates, ignoring the fact that data were generated under hospital operation practices that change over time. These changing practices induce definitive changes in observed data which confound evaluations which do not account for dates and limit the generalisability of date-agnostic models. In this work, we establish the magnitude of this problem on MIMIC, a public hospital dataset, and showcase a simple solution. We augment MIMIC with the year in which care was provided and show that a model trained using standard feature representations will significantly degrade in quality over time. We find a deterioration of 0.3 AUC when evaluating mortality prediction on data from 10 years later. We find a similar deterioration of 0.15 AUC for length-of-stay. In contrast, we demonstrate that clinically-oriented aggregates of raw features significantly mitigate future deterioration. Our suggested aggregated representations, when retrained yearly, have prediction quality comparable to year-agnostic models.
With a mortality rate of 5.4 million lives worldwide every year and a healthcare cost of more than 16 billion dollars in the USA alone, sepsis is one of the leading causes of hospital mortality and an increasing concern in the ageing western world. Recently, medical and technological advances have helped re-define the illness criteria of this disease, which is otherwise poorly understood by the medical society. Together with the rise of widely accessible Electronic Health Records, the advances in data mining and complex nonlinear algorithms are a promising avenue for the early detection of sepsis. This work contributes to the research effort in the field of automated sepsis detection with an open-access labelling of the medical MIMIC-III data set. Moreover, we propose MGP-AttTCN: a joint multitask Gaussian Process and attention-based deep learning model to early predict the occurrence of sepsis in an interpretable manner. We show that our model outperforms the current state-of-the-art and present evidence that different labelling heuristics lead to discrepancies in task difficulty. For instance, when predicting sepsis five hours prior to onset on our new realistic labels, our proposed model achieves an area under the ROC curve of 0.660 and an area under the PR curve of 0.483, whereas the (less interpretable) previous state-of-the-art model (MGP-TCN) achieves 0.635 AUROC and 0.460 AUPR and the popular commercial InSight model achieves 0.490 AUROC and 0.359 AUPR.
In many real-world applications, multiple agents seek to learn how to perform highly related yet slightly different tasks in an online bandit learning protocol. We formulate this problem as the $epsilon$-multi-player multi-armed bandit problem, in which a set of players concurrently interact with a set of arms, and for each arm, the reward distributions for all players are similar but not necessarily identical. We develop an upper confidence bound-based algorithm, RobustAgg$(epsilon)$, that adaptively aggregates rewards collected by different players. In the setting where an upper bound on the pairwise similarities of reward distributions between players is known, we achieve instance-dependent regret guarantees that depend on the amenability of information sharing across players. We complement these upper bounds with nearly matching lower bounds. In the setting where pairwise similarities are unknown, we provide a lower bound, as well as an algorithm that trades off minimax regret guarantees for adaptivity to unknown similarity structure.
Metro origin-destination prediction is a crucial yet challenging time-series analysis task in intelligent transportation systems, which aims to accurately forecast two specific types of cross-station ridership, i.e., Origin-Destination (OD) one and Destination-Origin (DO) one. However, complete OD matrices of previous time intervals can not be obtained immediately in online metro systems, and conventional methods only used limited information to forecast the future OD and DO ridership separately. In this work, we proposed a novel neural network module termed Heterogeneous Information Aggregation Machine (HIAM), which fully exploits heterogeneous information of historical data (e.g., incomplete OD matrices, unfinished order vectors, and DO matrices) to jointly learn the evolutionary patterns of OD and DO ridership. Specifically, an OD modeling branch estimates the potential destinations of unfinished orders explicitly to complement the information of incomplete OD matrices, while a DO modeling branch takes DO matrices as input to capture the spatial-temporal distribution of DO ridership. Moreover, a Dual Information Transformer is introduced to propagate the mutual information among OD features and DO features for modeling the OD-DO causality and correlation. Based on the proposed HIAM, we develop a unified Seq2Seq network to forecast the future OD and DO ridership simultaneously. Extensive experiments conducted on two large-scale benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our method for online metro origin-destination prediction.
Although recent multi-task learning methods have shown to be effective in improving the generalization of deep neural networks, they should be used with caution for safety-critical applications, such as clinical risk prediction. This is because even if they achieve improved task-average performance, they may still yield degraded performance on individual tasks, which may be critical (e.g., prediction of mortality risk). Existing asymmetric multi-task learning methods tackle this negative transfer problem by performing knowledge transfer from tasks with low loss to tasks with high loss. However, using loss as a measure of reliability is risky since it could be a result of overfitting. In the case of time-series prediction tasks, knowledge learned for one task (e.g., predicting the sepsis onset) at a specific timestep may be useful for learning another task (e.g., prediction of mortality) at a later timestep, but lack of loss at each timestep makes it difficult to measure the reliability at each timestep. To capture such dynamically changing asymmetric relationships between tasks in time-series data, we propose a novel temporal asymmetric multi-task learning model that performs knowledge transfer from certain tasks/timesteps to relevant uncertain tasks, based on feature-level uncertainty. We validate our model on multiple clinical risk prediction tasks against various deep learning models for time-series prediction, which our model significantly outperforms, without any sign of negative transfer. Further qualitative analysis of learned knowledge graphs by clinicians shows that they are helpful in analyzing the predictions of the model. Our final code is available at https://github.com/anhtuan5696/TPAMTL.
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