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Register a new userMeasuring Impact of Climate Change on Tree Species: analysis of JSDM on FIA data
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One of the first beings affected by changes in the climate are trees, one of our most vital resources. In this study tree species interaction and the response to climate in different ecological environments is observed by applying a joint species distribution model to different ecological domains in the United States. Joint species distribution models are useful to learn inter-species relationships and species response to the environment. The climates impact on the tree species is measured through species abundance in an area. We compare the models performance across all ecological domains and study the sensitivity of the climate variables. With the prediction of abundances, tree species populations can be predicted in the future and measure the impact of climate change on tree populations.
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As impacts of introduced species cascade through trophic levels, they can cause indirect and counter-intuitive effects. To investigate the impact of invasive species at the network scale, we use a generalized food web model, capable of propagating changes through networks with a series of ecologically realistic criteria. Using data from a small British offshore island, we quantify the impacts of four virtual invasive species (an insectivore, a herbivore, a carnivore and an omnivore whose diet is based on a rat) and explore which clusters of species react in similar ways. We find that the predictions for the impacts of invasive species are ecologically plausible, even for large networks robust predictions for the impacts of invasive species can be obtained. Species in the same taxonomic group are similarly impacted by a virtual invasive species. However, interesting differences within a given taxonomic group can occur. The results suggest that some native species may be at risk from a wider range of invasives than previously believed. The implications of these results for ecologists and land managers are discussed.
Mountain ecosystems are sensitive indicators of climate change. Long-term studies may be extremely useful in assessing the responses of high-elevation ecosystems to climate change and other anthropogenic drivers. Mountain research sites within the LTER (Long-Term Ecosystem Research) network are representative of various types of ecosystems and span a wide bioclimatic and elevational range. Here, we present a synthesis and a review of the main results from long-term ecological studies in mountain ecosystems at 20 LTER sites in Italy, Switzerland and Austria. We analyzed a set of key climate parameters, such as temperature and snow cover duration, in relation to vascular species composition, plant traits, abundance patterns, pedoclimate, nutrient dynamics in soils and water, phenology and composition of freshwater biota. The overall results highlight the rapid response of mountain ecosystems to climate change. As temperatures increased, vegetation cover in alpine and subalpine summits increased as well. Years with limited snow cover duration caused an increase in soil temperature and microbial biomass during the growing season. Effects on freshwater ecosystems were observed, in terms of increases in solutes, decreases in nitrates and changes in plankton phenology and benthos communities. This work highlights the importance of comparing and integrating long-term ecological data collected in different ecosystems, for a more comprehensive overview of the ecological effects of climate change. Nevertheless, there is a need for i) adopting co-located monitoring site networks to improve our ability to obtain sound results from cross-site analysis, ii) carrying out further studies, with fine spatial and temporal resolutions to improve understanding of responses to extreme events, and iii) increasing comparability and standardizing protocols across networks to clarify local from global patterns.
Range expansion and range shifts are crucial population responses to climate change. Genetic consequences are not well understood but are clearly coupled to ecological dynamics that, in turn, are driven by shifting climate conditions. We model a population with a deterministic reaction-- diffusion model coupled to a heterogeneous environment that develops in time due to climate change. We decompose the resulting travelling wave solution into neutral genetic components to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of its genetic structure. Our analysis shows that range expansions and range shifts under slow climate change preserve genetic diversity. This is because slow climate change creates range boundaries that promote spatial mixing of genetic components. Mathematically , the mixing leads to so-called pushed travelling wave solutions. This mixing phenomenon is not seen in spatially homogeneous environments, where range expansion reduces genetic diversity through gene surfing arising from pulled travelling wave solutions. However, the preservation of diversity is diminished when climate change occurs too quickly. Using diversity indices, we show that fast expansions and range shifts erode genetic diversity more than slow range expansions and range shifts. Our study provides analytical insight into the dynamics of travelling wave solutions in heterogeneous environments.
Climate change impact studies inform policymakers on the estimated damages of future climate change on economic, health and other outcomes. In most studies, an annual outcome variable is observed, e.g. agricultural yield, annual mortality or gross domestic product, along with a higher-frequency regressor, e.g. daily temperature. While applied researchers tend to consider multiple models to characterize the relationship between the outcome and the high-frequency regressor, to inform policy a choice between the damage functions implied by the different models has to be made. This paper formalizes the model selection problem in this empirical setting and provides conditions for the consistency of Monte Carlo Cross-validation and generalized information criteria. A simulation study illustrates the theoretical results and points to the relevance of the signal-to-noise ratio for the finite-sample behavior of the model selection criteria. Two empirical applications with starkly different signal-to-noise ratios illustrate the practical implications of the formal analysis on model selection criteria provided in this paper.
Cyclic dominance is frequently believed to be a mechanism that maintains diversity of competing species. But this delicate balance could also be fragile if some of the members is weakened because an extinction of a species will involve the annihilation of its predator hence leaving only a single species alive. To check this expectation we here introduce a fourth species which chases exclusively a single member of the basic model composed by three cyclically dominant species. Interestingly, the coexistence is not necessarily broken and we have detected three consecutive phase transitions as we vary only the invasion strength of the fourth pestilent species. The resulting phases are analyzed by different techniques including the study of the Hamming distance density profiles. Some of our observations strengthen previous findings about cyclically dominant system, but they also offer new revelations and counter-intuitive phenomenon, like supporting pestilent species may result in its extinction, hence enriching our understanding about these very simple but still surprisingly complex systems.
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