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Register a new userOn Tractable Computation of Expected Predictions
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Added by
Pasha Khosravi
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Computing expected predictions of discriminative models is a fundamental task in machine learning that appears in many interesting applications such as fairness, handling missing values, and data analysis. Unfortunately, computing expectations of a discriminative model with respect to a probability distribution defined by an arbitrary generative model has been proven to be hard in general. In fact, the task is intractable even for simple models such as logistic regression and a naive Bayes distribution. In this paper, we identify a pair of generative and discriminative models that enables tractable computation of expectations, as well as moments of any order, of the latter with respect to the former in case of regression. Specifically, we consider expressive probabilistic circuits with certain structural constraints that support tractable probabilistic inference. Moreover, we exploit the tractable computation of high-order moments to derive an algorithm to approximate the expectations for classification scenarios in which exact computations are intractable. Our framework to compute expected predictions allows for handling of missing data during prediction time in a principled and accurate way and enables reasoning about the behavior of discriminative models. We empirically show our algorithm to consistently outperform standard imputation techniques on a variety of datasets. Finally, we illustrate how our framework can be used for exploratory data analysis.
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Computing the expectation of kernel functions is a ubiquitous task in machine learning, with applications from classical support vector machines to exploiting kernel embeddings of distributions in probabilistic modeling, statistical inference, causal discovery, and deep learning. In all these scenarios, we tend to resort to Monte Carlo estimates as expectations of kernels are intractable in general. In this work, we characterize the conditions under which we can compute expected kernels exactly and efficiently, by leveraging recent advances in probabilistic circuit representations. We first construct a circuit representation for kernels and propose an approach to such tractable computation. We then demonstrate possible advancements for kernel embedding frameworks by exploiting tractable expected kernels to derive new algorithms for two challenging scenarios: 1) reasoning under missing data with kernel support vector regressors; 2) devising a collapsed black-box importance sampling scheme. Finally, we empirically evaluate both algorithms and show that they outperform standard baselines on a variety of datasets.
The question of how to determine which states and actions are responsible for a certain outcome is known as the credit assignment problem and remains a central research question in reinforcement learning and artificial intelligence. Eligibility traces enable efficient credit assignment to the recent sequence of states and actions experienced by the agent, but not to counterfactual sequences that could also have led to the current state. In this work, we introduce expected eligibility traces. Expected traces allow, with a single update, to update states and actions that could have preceded the current state, even if they did not do so on this occasion. We discuss when expected traces provide benefits over classic (instantaneous) traces in temporal-difference learning, and show that sometimes substantial improvements can be attained. We provide a way to smoothly interpolate between instantaneous and expected traces by a mechanism similar to bootstrapping, which ensures that the resulting algorithm is a strict generalisation of TD($lambda$). Finally, we discuss possible extensions and connections to related ideas, such as successor features.
Agents trained by reinforcement learning (RL) often fail to generalize beyond the environment they were trained in, even when presented with new scenarios that seem similar to the training environment. We study the query complexity required to train RL agents that generalize to multiple environments. Intuitively, tractable generalization is only possible when the environments are similar or close in some sense. To capture this, we introduce Weak Proximity, a natural structural condition that requires the environments to have highly similar transition and reward functions and share a policy providing optimal value. Despite such shared structure, we prove that tractable generalization is impossible in the worst case. This holds even when each individual environment can be efficiently solved to obtain an optimal linear policy, and when the agent possesses a generative model. Our lower bound applies to the more complex task of representation learning for the purpose of efficient generalization to multiple environments. On the positive side, we introduce Strong Proximity, a strengthened condition which we prove is sufficient for efficient generalization.
Optimizing multiple competing black-box objectives is a challenging problem in many fields, including science, engineering, and machine learning. Multi-objective Bayesian optimization is a powerful approach for identifying the optimal trade-offs between the objectives with very few function evaluations. However, existing methods tend to perform poorly when observations are corrupted by noise, as they do not take into account uncertainty in the true Pareto frontier over the previously evaluated designs. We propose a novel acquisition function, NEHVI, that overcomes this important practical limitation by applying a Bayesian treatment to the popular expected hypervolume improvement criterion to integrate over this uncertainty in the Pareto frontier. We further argue that, even in the noiseless setting, the problem of generating multiple candidates in parallel reduces that of handling uncertainty in the Pareto frontier. Through this lens, we derive a natural parallel variant of NEHVI that can efficiently generate large batches of candidates. We provide a theoretical convergence guarantee for optimizing a Monte Carlo estimator of NEHVI using exact sample-path gradients. Empirically, we show that NEHVI achieves state-of-the-art performance in noisy and large-batch environments.
In the field of multi-objective optimization algorithms, multi-objective Bayesian Global Optimization (MOBGO) is an important branch, in addition to evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithms (EMOAs). MOBGO utilizes Gaussian Process models learned from previous objective function evaluations to decide the next evaluation site by maximizing or minimizing an infill criterion. A common criterion in MOBGO is the Expected Hypervolume Improvement (EHVI), which shows a good performance on a wide range of problems, with respect to exploration and exploitation. However, so far it has been a challenge to calculate exact EHVI values efficiently. In this paper, an efficient algorithm for the computation of the exact EHVI for a generic case is proposed. This efficient algorithm is based on partitioning the integration volume into a set of axis-parallel slices. Theoretically, the upper bound time complexities are improved from previously $O (n^2)$ and $O(n^3)$, for two- and three-objective problems respectively, to $Theta(nlog n)$, which is asymptotically optimal. This article generalizes the scheme in higher dimensional case by utilizing a new hyperbox decomposition technique, which was proposed by D{a}chert et al, EJOR, 2017. It also utilizes a generalization of the multilayered integration scheme that scales linearly in the number of hyperboxes of the decomposition. The speed comparison shows that the proposed algorithm in this paper significantly reduces computation time. Finally, this decomposition technique is applied in the calculation of the Probability of Improvement (PoI).
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