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Register a new userA Concert-planning Tool for Independent Musicians by Machine Learning Models
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Added by
Xiaohan Yang
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Our project aims at helping independent musicians to plan their concerts based on the economies of agglomeration in the music industry. Initially, we planned to design an advisory tool for both concert pricing and location selection. Nonetheless, after implementing SGD linear regression and support vector regression models, we realized that concert price does not vary significantly according to different music types, concert time, concert location and ticket venues. Therefore, to offer more useful suggestions, we focus on the location choice problem by turning it to a classification task. The overall performance of our classification model is pretty good. After tuning hyperparameters, we discovered the Random Forest gives the best performance, improving the classification result by 316%. This result reveals that we could help independent musicians better locate their concerts to where similar musicians would go, namely a place with higher network effects.
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We describe two recently proposed machine learning approaches for discovering emerging trends in fatal accidental drug overdoses. The Gaussian Process Subset Scan enables early detection of emerging patterns in spatio-temporal data, accounting for both the non-iid nature of the data and the fact that detecting subtle patterns requires integration of information across multiple spatial areas and multiple time steps. We apply this approach to 17 years of county-aggregated data for monthly opioid overdose deaths in the New York City metropolitan area, showing clear advantages in the utility of discovered patterns as compared to typical anomaly detection approaches. To detect and characterize emerging overdose patterns that differentially affect a subpopulation of the data, including geographic, demographic, and behavioral patterns (e.g., which combinations of drugs are involved), we apply the Multidimensional Tensor Scan to 8 years of case-level overdose data from Allegheny County, PA. We discover previously unidentified overdose patterns which reveal unusual demographic clusters, show impacts of drug legislation, and demonstrate potential for early detection and targeted intervention. These approaches to early detection of overdose patterns can inform prevention and response efforts, as well as understanding the effects of policy changes.
CausalML is a Python implementation of algorithms related to causal inference and machine learning. Algorithms combining causal inference and machine learning have been a trending topic in recent years. This package tries to bridge the gap between theoretical work on methodology and practical applications by making a collection of methods in this field available in Python. This paper introduces the key concepts, scope, and use cases of this package.
Getting people cycling is an increasingly common objective in transport planning institutions worldwide. A growing evidence base indicates that high quality infrastructure can boost local cycling rates. Yet for infrastructure and other cycling measures to be effective, it is important to intervene in the right places, such as along desire lines of high latent demand. This creates the need for tools and methods to help answer the question where to build?. Following a brief review of the policy and research context related to this question, this paper describes the design, features and potential applications of such a tool. The Propensity to Cycle Tool (PCT) is an online, interactive planning support system which was initially developed to explore and map cycling potential across England (see www.pct.bike). Based on origin-destination data, it models and visualises cycling levels at area, desire line, route and route network levels, for current levels of cycling, and for scenario-based cycling futures. Four scenarios are presented, including Go Dutch and Ebikes, which explore what would happen if English people cycled as much as Dutch people and the potential impact of electric cycles on cycling uptake. The cost effectiveness of investment depends not only on the number of additional trips cycled, but on wider impacts such as health and carbon benefits. The PCT reports these at area, desire line, and route level for each scenario. The PCT is open source, facilitating the creation of additional scenarios and its deployment in new contexts. We conclude that the PCT illustrates the potential of online tools to inform transport decisions and raises the wider issue of how models should be used in transport planning.
The promise of machine learning has been explored in a variety of scientific disciplines in the last few years, however, its application on first-principles based computationally expensive tools is still in nascent stage. Even with the advances in computational resources and power, transient simulations of large-scale dynamic systems using a variety of the first-principles based computational tools are still limited. In this work, we propose an ensemble approach where we combine one such computationally expensive tool, called discrete element method (DEM), with a time-series forecasting method called auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and machine-learning methods to significantly reduce the computational burden while retaining model accuracy and performance. The developed machine-learning model shows good predictability and agreement with the literature, demonstrating its tremendous potential in scientific computing.
Machine learning models often make predictions that bias against certain subgroups of input data. When undetected, machine learning biases can constitute significant financial and ethical implications. Semi-automated tools that involve humans in the loop could facilitate bias detection. Yet, little is known about the considerations involved in their design. In this paper, we report on an interview study with 11 machine learning practitioners for investigating the needs surrounding semi-automated bias detection tools. Based on the findings, we highlight four considerations in designing to guide system designers who aim to create future tools for bias detection.
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