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Register a new userInterpretable Classification of Time-Series Data using Efficient Enumerative Techniques
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Cyber-physical system applications such as autonomous vehicles, wearable devices, and avionic systems generate a large volume of time-series data. Designers often look for tools to help classify and categorize the data. Traditional machine learning techniques for time-series data offer several solutions to solve these problems; however, the artifacts trained by these algorithms often lack interpretability. On the other hand, temporal logics, such as Signal Temporal Logic (STL) have been successfully used in the formal methods community as specifications of time-series behaviors. In this work, we propose a new technique to automatically learn temporal logic formulae that are able to cluster and classify real-valued time-series data. Previous work on learning STL formulas from data either assumes a formula-template to be given by the user, or assumes some special fragment of STL that enables exploring the formula structure in a systematic fashion. In our technique, we relax these assumptions, and provide a way to systematically explore the space of all STL formulas. As the space of all STL formulas is very large, and contains many semantically equivalent formulas, we suggest a technique to heuristically prune the space of formulas considered. Finally, we illustrate our technique on various case studies from the automotive, transportation and healthcare domain.
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Recent few-shot learning works focus on training a model with prior meta-knowledge to fast adapt to new tasks with unseen classes and samples. However, conventional time-series classification algorithms fail to tackle the few-shot scenario. Existing few-shot learning methods are proposed to tackle image or text data, and most of them are neural-based models that lack interpretability. This paper proposes an interpretable neural-based framework, namely textit{Dual Prototypical Shapelet Networks (DPSN)} for few-shot time-series classification, which not only trains a neural network-based model but also interprets the model from dual granularity: 1) global overview using representative time series samples, and 2) local highlights using discriminative shapelets. In particular, the generated dual prototypical shapelets consist of representative samples that can mostly demonstrate the overall shapes of all samples in the class and discriminative partial-length shapelets that can be used to distinguish different classes. We have derived 18 few-shot TSC datasets from public benchmark datasets and evaluated the proposed method by comparing with baselines. The DPSN framework outperforms state-of-the-art time-series classification methods, especially when training with limited amounts of data. Several case studies have been given to demonstrate the interpret ability of our model.
High-dimensional time series are common in many domains. Since human cognition is not optimized to work well in high-dimensional spaces, these areas could benefit from interpretable low-dimensional representations. However, most representation learning algorithms for time series data are difficult to interpret. This is due to non-intuitive mappings from data features to salient properties of the representation and non-smoothness over time. To address this problem, we propose a new representation learning framework building on ideas from interpretable discrete dimensionality reduction and deep generative modeling. This framework allows us to learn discrete representations of time series, which give rise to smooth and interpretable embeddings with superior clustering performance. We introduce a new way to overcome the non-differentiability in discrete representation learning and present a gradient-based version of the traditional self-organizing map algorithm that is more performant than the original. Furthermore, to allow for a probabilistic interpretation of our method, we integrate a Markov model in the representation space. This model uncovers the temporal transition structure, improves clustering performance even further and provides additional explanatory insights as well as a natural representation of uncertainty. We evaluate our model in terms of clustering performance and interpretability on static (Fashion-)MNIST data, a time series of linearly interpolated (Fashion-)MNIST images, a chaotic Lorenz attractor system with two macro states, as well as on a challenging real world medical time series application on the eICU data set. Our learned representations compare favorably with competitor methods and facilitate downstream tasks on the real world data.
In this paper, we present a Bayesian view on model-based reinforcement learning. We use expert knowledge to impose structure on the transition model and present an efficient learning scheme based on variational inference. This scheme is applied to a heteroskedastic and bimodal benchmark problem on which we compare our results to NFQ and show how our approach yields human-interpretable insight about the underlying dynamics while also increasing data-efficiency.
We study the problem of robust time series analysis under the standard auto-regressive (AR) time series model in the presence of arbitrary outliers. We devise an efficient hard thresholding based algorithm which can obtain a consistent estimate of the optimal AR model despite a large fraction of the time series points being corrupted. Our algorithm alternately estimates the corrupted set of points and the model parameters, and is inspired by recent advances in robust regression and hard-thresholding methods. However, a direct application of existing techniques is hindered by a critical difference in the time-series domain: each point is correlated with all previous points rendering existing tools inapplicable directly. We show how to overcome this hurdle using novel proof techniques. Using our techniques, we are also able to provide the first efficient and provably consistent estimator for the robust regression problem where a standard linear observation model with white additive noise is corrupted arbitrarily. We illustrate our methods on synthetic datasets and show that our methods indeed are able to consistently recover the optimal parameters despite a large fraction of points being corrupted.
Probabilistic time series forecasting involves estimating the distribution of future based on its history, which is essential for risk management in downstream decision-making. We propose a deep state space model for probabilistic time series forecasting whereby the non-linear emission model and transition model are parameterized by networks and the dependency is modeled by recurrent neural nets. We take the automatic relevance determination (ARD) view and devise a network to exploit the exogenous variables in addition to time series. In particular, our ARD network can incorporate the uncertainty of the exogenous variables and eventually helps identify useful exogenous variables and suppress those irrelevant for forecasting. The distribution of multi-step ahead forecasts are approximated by Monte Carlo simulation. We show in experiments that our model produces accurate and sharp probabilistic forecasts. The estimated uncertainty of our forecasting also realistically increases over time, in a spontaneous manner.
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