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Register a new userSequence to Sequence with Attention for Influenza Prevalence Prediction using Google Trends
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Added by
Kenjiro Kondo
Publication date
2019
fields
Informatics Engineering
and research's language is
English
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Early prediction of the prevalence of influenza reduces its impact. Various studies have been conducted to predict the number of influenza-infected people. However, these studies are not highly accurate especially in the distant future such as over one month. To deal with this problem, we investigate the sequence to sequence (Seq2Seq) with attention model using Google Trends data to assess and predict the number of influenza-infected people over the course of multiple weeks. Google Trends data help to compensate the dark figures including the statistics and improve the prediction accuracy. We demonstrate that the attention mechanism is highly effective to improve prediction accuracy and achieves state-of-the art results, with a Pearson correlation and root-mean-square error of 0.996 and 0.67, respectively. However, the prediction accuracy of the peak of influenza epidemic is not sufficient, and further investigation is needed to overcome this problem.
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Rising penetration levels of (residential) photovoltaic (PV) power as distributed energy resource pose a number of challenges to the electricity infrastructure. High quality, general tools to provide accurate forecasts of power production are urgently needed. In this article, we propose a supervised deep learning model for end-to-end forecasting of PV power production. The proposed model is based on two seminal concepts that led to significant performance improvements of deep learning approaches in other sequence-related fields, but not yet in the area of time series prediction: the sequence to sequence architecture and attention mechanism as a context generator. The proposed model leverages numerical weather predictions and high-resolution historical measurements to forecast a binned probability distribution over the prognostic time intervals, rather than the expected values of the prognostic variable. This design offers significant performance improvements compared to common baseline approaches, such as fully connected neural networks and one-block long short-term memory architectures. Using normalized root mean square error based forecast skill score as a performance indicator, the proposed approach is compared to other models. The results show that the new design performs at or above the current state of the art of PV power forecasting.
Financial markets are a complex dynamical system. The complexity comes from the interaction between a market and its participants, in other words, the integrated outcome of activities of the entire participants determines the markets trend, while the markets trend affects activities of participants. These interwoven interactions make financial markets keep evolving. Inspired by stochastic recurrent models that successfully capture variability observed in natural sequential data such as speech and video, we propose CLVSA, a hybrid model that consists of stochastic recurrent networks, the sequence-to-sequence architecture, the self- and inter-attention mechanism, and convolutional LSTM units to capture variationally underlying features in raw financial trading data. Our model outperforms basic models, such as convolutional neural network, vanilla LSTM network, and sequence-to-sequence model with attention, based on backtesting results of six futures from January 2010 to December 2017. Our experimental results show that, by introducing an approximate posterior, CLVSA takes advantage of an extra regularizer based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence to prevent itself from overfitting traps.
Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in peoples online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.
In a typical fusion experiment, the plasma can have several possible confinement modes. At the TCV tokamak, aside from the Low (L) and High (H) confinement modes, an additional mode, dithering (D), is frequently observed. Developing methods that automatically detect these modes is considered to be important for future tokamak operation. Previous work with deep learning methods, particularly convolutional recurrent neural networks (Conv-RNNs), indicates that they are a suitable approach. Nevertheless, those models are sensitive to noise in the temporal alignment of labels, and that model in particular is limited to making individual decisions taking into account only its own hidden state and its input at each time step. In this work, we propose an architecture for a sequence-to-sequence neural network model with attention which solves both of those issues. Using a carefully calibrated dataset, we compare the performance of a Conv-RNN with that of our proposed sequence-to-sequence model, and show two results: one, that the Conv-RNN can be improved upon with new data; two, that the sequence-to-sequence model can improve the results even further, achieving excellent scores on both train and test data.
End-to-end approaches have recently become popular as a means of simplifying the training and deployment of speech recognition systems. However, they often require large amounts of data to perform well on large vocabulary tasks. With the aim of making end-to-end approaches usable by a broader range of researchers, we explore the potential to use end-to-end methods in small vocabulary contexts where smaller datasets may be used. A significant drawback of small-vocabulary systems is the difficulty of expanding the vocabulary beyond the original training samples -- therefore we also study strategies to extend the vocabulary with only few examples per new class (few-shot learning). Our results show that an attention-based encoder-decoder can be competitive against a strong baseline on a small vocabulary keyword classification task, reaching 97.5% of accuracy on Tensorflows Speech Commands dataset. It also shows promising results on the few-shot learning problem where a simple strategy achieved 68.8% of accuracy on new keywords with only 10 examples for each new class. This score goes up to 88.4% with a larger set of 100 examples.
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