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Register a new userData-driven prediction of vortex-induced vibration response of marine risers subjected to three-dimensional current
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Slender marine structures such as deep-water marine risers are subjected to currents and will normally experience Vortex Induced Vibrations (VIV), which can cause fast accumulation of fatigue damage. The ocean current is often three-dimensional (3D), i.e., the direction and magnitude of the current vary throughout the water column. Today, semi-empirical tools are used by the industry to predict VIV induced fatigue on risers. The load model and hydrodynamic parameters in present VIV prediction tools are developed based on two-dimensional (2D) flow conditions, as it is challenging to consider the effect of 3D flow along the risers. Accordingly, the current profiles must be purposely made 2D during the design process, which leads to significant uncertainty in the prediction results. Further, due to the limitations in the laboratory, VIV model tests are mostly carried out under 2D flow conditions and thus little experimental data exist to document VIV response of riser subjected to varying directions of the current. However, a few experiments have been conducted with 3D current. We have used results from one of these experiments to investigate how well 1) traditional and 2) an alternative method based on a data driven prediction can describe VIV in 3D currents. Data driven modelling is particularly suited for complicated problems with many parameters and non-linear relationships. We have applied a data clustering algorithm to the experimental 3D flow data in order to identify measurable parameters that can influence responses. The riser responses are grouped based on their statistical characteristics, which relate to the direction of the flow. Furthermore we fit a random forest regression model to the measured VIV response and compare its performance with the predictions of existing VIV prediction tools (VIVANA-FD).
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We develop a fast multi-fidelity modeling method for very complex correlations between high- and low-fidelity data by working in modal space to extract the proper correlation function. We apply this method to infer the amplitude of motion of a flexible marine riser in cross-flow, subject to vortex-induced vibrations (VIV). VIV are driven by an absolute instability in the flow, which imposes a frequency (Strouhal) law that requires a matching with the impedance of the structure; this matching is easily achieved because of the rapid parametric variation of the added mass force. As a result, the wavenumber of the riser spatial response is within narrow bands of uncertainty. Hence, an error in wavenumber prediction can cause significant phase-related errors in the shape of the amplitude of response along the riser, rendering correlation between low- and high-fidelity data very complex. Working in modal space as outlined herein, dense data from low-fidelity data, provided by the semi-empirical computer code VIVA, can correlate in modal space with few high-fidelity data, obtained from experiments or fully-resolved CFD simulations, to correct both phase and amplitude and provide predictions that agree very well overall with the correct shape of the amplitude response. We also quantify the uncertainty in the prediction using Bayesian modeling and exploit this uncertainty to formulate an active learning strategy for the best possible location of the sensors providing the high fidelity measurements.
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