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When the data are stored in a distributed manner, direct application of traditional statistical inference procedures is often prohibitive due to communication cost and privacy concerns. This paper develops and investigates two Communication-Efficient Accurate Statistical Estimators (CEASE), implemented through iterative algorithms for distributed optimization. In each iteration, node machines carry out computation in parallel and communicate with the central processor, which then broadcasts aggregated information to node machines for new updates. The algorithms adapt to the similarity among loss functions on node machines, and converge rapidly when each node machine has large enough sample size. Moreover, they do not require good initialization and enjoy linear converge guarantees under general conditions. The contraction rate of optimization errors is presented explicitly, with dependence on the local sample size unveiled. In addition, the improved statistical accuracy per iteration is derived. By regarding the proposed method as a multi-step statistical estimator, we show that statistical efficiency can be achieved in finite steps in typical statistical applications. In addition, we give the conditions under which the one-step CEASE estimator is statistically efficient. Extensive numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data validate the theoretical results and demonstrate the superior performance of our algorithms.
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Communication efficiency and robustness are two major issues in modern distributed learning framework. This is due to the practical situations where some computing nodes may have limited communication power or may behave adversarial behaviors. To address the two issues simultaneously, this paper develops two communication-efficient and robust distributed learning algorithms for convex problems. Our motivation is based on surrogate likelihood framework and the median and trimmed mean operations. Particularly, the proposed algorithms are provably robust against Byzantine failures, and also achieve optimal statistical rates for strong convex losses and convex (non-smooth) penalties. For typical statistical models such as generalized linear models, our results show that statistical errors dominate optimization errors in finite iterations. Simulated and real data experiments are conducted to demonstrate the numerical performance of our algorithms.
Large graphs abound in machine learning, data mining, and several related areas. A useful step towards analyzing such graphs is that of obtaining certain summary statistics - e.g., or the expected length of a shortest path between two nodes, or the expected weight of a minimum spanning tree of the graph, etc. These statistics provide insight into the structure of a graph, and they can help predict global properties of a graph. Motivated thus, we propose to study statistical properties of structured subgraphs (of a given graph), in particular, to estimate the expected objective function value of a combinatorial optimization problem over these subgraphs. The general task is very difficult, if not unsolvable; so for concreteness we describe a more specific statistical estimation problem based on spanning trees. We hope that our position paper encourages others to also study other types of graphical structures for which one can prove nontrivial statistical estimates.
Existing nonconvex statistical optimization theory and methods crucially rely on the correct specification of the underlying true statistical models. To address this issue, we take a first step towards taming model misspecification by studying the high-dimensional sparse phase retrieval problem with misspecified link functions. In particular, we propose a simple variant of the thresholded Wirtinger flow algorithm that, given a proper initialization, linearly converges to an estimator with optimal statistical accuracy for a broad family of unknown link functions. We further provide extensive numerical experiments to support our theoretical findings.
In this paper we focus on the problem of assigning uncertainties to single-point predictions generated by a deterministic model that outputs a continuous variable. This problem applies to any state-of-the-art physics or engineering models that have a computational cost that does not readily allow to run ensembles and to estimate the uncertainty associated to single-point predictions. Essentially, we devise a method to easily transform a deterministic prediction into a probabilistic one. We show that for doing so, one has to compromise between the accuracy and the reliability (calibration) of such a probabilistic model. Hence, we introduce a cost function that encodes their trade-off. We use the Continuous Rank Probability Score to measure accuracy and we derive an analytic formula for the reliability, in the case of forecasts of continuous scalar variables expressed in terms of Gaussian distributions. The new Accuracy-Reliability cost function is then used to estimate the input-dependent variance, given a black-box mean function, by solving a two-objective optimization problem. The simple philosophy behind this strategy is that predictions based on the estimated variances should not only be accurate, but also reliable (i.e. statistical consistent with observations). Conversely, early works based on the minimization of classical cost functions, such as the negative log probability density, cannot simultaneously enforce both accuracy and reliability. We show several examples both with synthetic data, where the underlying hidden noise can accurately be recovered, and with large real-world datasets.
With increasingly more hyperparameters involved in their training, machine learning systems demand a better understanding of hyperparameter tuning automation. This has raised interest in studies of provably black-box optimization, which is made more practical by better exploration mechanism implemented in algorithm design, managing the flux of both optimization and statistical errors. Prior efforts focus on delineating optimization errors, but this is deficient: black-box optimization algorithms can be inefficient without considering heterogeneity among reward samples. In this paper, we make the key delineation on the role of statistical uncertainty in black-box optimization, guiding a more efficient algorithm design. We introduce textit{optimum-statistical collaboration}, a framework of managing the interaction between optimization error flux and statistical error flux evolving in the optimization process. Inspired by this framework, we propose the texttt{VHCT} algorithms for objective functions with only local-smoothness assumptions. In theory, we prove our algorithm enjoys rate-optimal regret bounds; in experiments, we show the algorithm outperforms prior efforts in extensive settings.
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