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Register a new userDiagnosing the performance of human mobility models at small spatial scales using volunteered geographic information
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Accurate modelling of local population movement patterns is a core contemporary concern for urban policymakers, affecting both the short term deployment of public transport resources and the longer term planning of transport infrastructure. Yet, while macro-level population movement models (such as the gravity and radiation models) are well developed, micro-level alternatives are in much shorter supply, with most macro-models known to perform badly in smaller geographic confines. In this paper we take a first step to remedying this deficit, by leveraging two novel datasets to analyse where and why macro-level models of human mobility break down at small scales. In particular, we use an anonymised aggregate dataset from a major mobility app and combine this with freely available data from OpenStreetMap concerning land-use composition of different areas around the county of Oxfordshire in the United Kingdom. We show where different models fail, and make the case for a new modelling strategy which moves beyond rough heuristics such as distance and population size towards a detailed, granular understanding of the opportunities presented in different areas of the city.
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There is a contradiction at the heart of our current understanding of individual and collective mobility patterns. On one hand, a highly influential stream of literature on human mobility driven by analyses of massive empirical datasets finds that human movements show no evidence of characteristic spatial scales. There, human mobility is described as scale-free. On the other hand, in geography, the concept of scale, referring to meaningful levels of description from individual buildings through neighborhoods, cities, regions, and countries, is central for the description of various aspects of human behavior such as socio-economic interactions, or political and cultural dynamics. Here, we resolve this apparent paradox by showing that day-to-day human mobility does indeed contain meaningful scales, corresponding to spatial containers restricting mobility behavior. The scale-free results arise from aggregating displacements across containers. We present a simple model, which given a persons trajectory, infers their neighborhoods, cities, and so on, as well as the sizes of these geographical containers. We find that the containers characterizing the trajectories of more than 700,000 individuals do indeed have typical sizes. We show that our model generates highly realistic trajectories without overfitting and provides a new lens through which to understand the differences in mobility behaviour across countries, gender groups, and urban-rural areas.
Accurate understanding and forecasting of traffic is a key contemporary problem for policymakers. Road networks are increasingly congested, yet traffic data is often expensive to obtain, making informed policy-making harder. This paper explores the extent to which traffic disruption can be estimated from static features from the volunteered geographic information site OpenStreetMap (OSM). We use OSM features as predictors for linear regressions of counts of traffic disruptions and traffic volume at 6,500 points in the road network within 112 regions of Oxfordshire, UK. We show that more than half the variation in traffic volume and disruptions can be explained with static features alone, and use cross-validation and recursive feature elimination to evaluate the predictive power and importance of different land use categories. Finally, we show that using OSMs granular point of interest data allows for better predictions than the aggregate categories typically used in studies of transportation and land use.
Many of our routines and activities are linked to our ability to move; be it commuting to work, shopping for groceries, or meeting friends. Yet, factors that limit the individuals ability to fully realise their mobility needs will ultimately affect the opportunities they can have access to (e.g. cultural activities, professional interactions). One important aspect frequently overlooked in human mobility studies is how gender-centred issues can amplify other sources of mobility disadvantages (e.g. socioeconomic inequalities), unevenly affecting the pool of opportunities men and women have access to. In this work, we leverage on a combination of computational, statistical, and information-theoretical approaches to investigate the existence of systematic discrepancies in the mobility diversity (i.e. the diversity of travel destinations) of (1) men and women from different socioeconomic backgrounds, and (2) work and non-work travels. Our analysis is based on datasets containing multiple instances of large-scale, official, travel surveys carried out in three major metropolitan areas in South America: Medellin and Bogota in Colombia, and S~ao Paulo in Brazil. Our results indicate the presence of general discrepancies in the urban mobility diversities related to the gender and socioeconomic characteristics of the individuals. Lastly, this paper sheds new light on the possible origins of gender-level human mobility inequalities, contributing to the general understanding of disaggregated patterns in human mobility.
Understanding the patterns of mobility of individuals is crucial for a number of reasons, from city planning to disaster management. There are two common ways of quantifying the amount of travel between locations: by direct observations that often involve privacy issues, e.g., tracking mobile phone locations, or by estimations from models. Typically, such models build on accurate knowledge of the population size at each location. However, when this information is not readily available, their applicability is rather limited. As mobile phones are ubiquitous, our aim is to investigate if mobility patterns can be inferred from aggregated mobile phone call data alone. Using data released by Orange for Ivory Coast, we show that human mobility is well predicted by a simple model based on the frequency of mobile phone calls between two locations and their geographical distance. We argue that the strength of the model comes from directly incorporating the social dimension of mobility. Furthermore, as only aggregated call data is required, the model helps to avoid potential privacy problems.
In an impending urban age where the majority of the worlds population will live in cities, it is critical that we improve our understanding of the strengths and limitations of existing city designs to ensure they are safe, clean, can deliver health co-benefits and importantly, are sustainable into the future. To enable this, a systematic and efficient means of performing inter- and intra-city comparisons based on urban form is required. Until now, methods for comparing cities have been limited by scalability, often reliant upon non-standardised local input data that can be costly and difficult to obtain. To address this, we have developed a unique approach to determine the mix, distribution, and composition of neighbourhood types in cities based on dimensions of block size and regularity, sorted by a self-organising map. We illustrate the utility of the method to provide an understanding of the underlying city morphology by overlaying spatially standardised city metrics such as air pollution and transport activity across a set of 1667 global cities with populations exceeding 300,000. The unique approach reports associations between specific mixes of neighbourhood typologies and quantities of moving vehicles (r=0.97), impervious surfaces (r=0.86), and air pollution levels (aerosol optical depth r=0.58 and NO$_{2}$ r=0.57). What this illustrates, is that this unique approach can identify the characteristics and neighbourhood mixes of well-performing urban areas while also producing unique `city fingerprints that can be used to provide new metrics, insights, and drive improvements in city design for the future.
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