Subscribe to the gold package and get unlimited access to Shamra Academy
Register a new userForecasting the Ambient Solar Wind with Numerical Models: I. On the Implementation of an Operational Framework
66
0
0.0
(
0
)
Ask ChatGPT about the research
No Arabic abstract
The ambient solar wind conditions in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth environment are determined by activity on the Sun. Steady solar wind streams modulate the propagation behaviour of interplanetary coronal mass ejections and are themselves an important driver of recurrent geomagnetic storm activity. The knowledge of the ambient solar wind flows and fields is thus an essential component of successful space weather forecasting. Here, we present an implementation of an operational framework for operating, validating and optimizing models of the ambient solar wind flow on the example of Carrington Rotation 2077. We reconstruct the global topology of the coronal magnetic field using the potential field source surface model (PFSS) and the Schatten current sheet model (SCS), and discuss three empirical relationships for specifying the solar wind conditions near the Sun, namely the Wang-Sheeley (WS) model, the distance from the coronal hole boundary (DCHB) model, and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. By adding uncertainty in the latitude about the sub-Earth point, we select an ensemble of initial conditions and map the solutions to Earth by the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model. We assess the forecasting performance from a continuous variable validation, and find that the WSA model most accurately predicts the solar wind speed time series. We note that the process of ensemble forecasting slightly improves the forecasting performance of all solar wind models investigated. We conclude that the implemented framework is well suited for studying the relationship between coronal magnetic fields and the properties of the ambient solar wind flow in the near-Earth environment.
rate research
Read More
The ambient solar wind flows and fields influence the complex propagation dynamics of coronal mass ejections in the interplanetary medium and play an essential role in shaping Earths space weather environment. A critical scientific goal in the space weather research and prediction community is to develop, implement and optimize numerical models for specifying the large-scale properties of solar wind conditions at the inner boundary of the heliospheric model domain. Here we present an adaptive prediction system that fuses information from in situ measurements of the solar wind into numerical models to better match the global solar wind model solutions near the Sun with prevailing physical conditions in the vicinity of Earth. In this way, we attempt to advance the predictive capabilities of well-established solar wind models for specifying solar wind speed, including the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. In particular, we use the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) model for mapping the solar wind solutions from the near-Sun environment to the vicinity of Earth. In addition, we present the newly developed Tunable HUX (THUX) model which solves the viscous form of the underlying Burgers equation. We perform a statistical analysis of the resulting solar wind predictions for the time 2006-2015. The proposed prediction scheme improves all the investigated coronal/heliospheric model combinations and produces better estimates of the solar wind state at Earth than our reference baseline model. We discuss why this is the case, and conclude that our findings have important implications for future practice in applied space weather research and prediction.
We investigate the anisotropy of Alfvenic turbulence in the inertial range of slow solar wind and in both driven and decaying reduced magnetohydrodynamic simulations. A direct comparison is made by measuring the anisotropic second-order structure functions in both data sets. In the solar wind, the perpendicular spectral index of the magnetic field is close to -5/3. In the forced simulation, it is close to -5/3 for the velocity and -3/2 for the magnetic field. In the decaying simulation, it is -5/3 for both fields. The spectral index becomes steeper at small angles to the local magnetic field direction in all cases. We also show that when using the global rather than local mean field, the anisotropic scaling of the simulations cannot always be properly measured.
One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. With a multitude of flare forecasting methods now available online it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are substantially better than climatological forecasts. Space weather researchers are increasingly looking towards methods used by the terrestrial weather community to improve current forecasting techniques. Ensemble forecasting has been used in numerical weather prediction for many years as a way to combine different predictions in order to obtain a more accurate result. Here we construct ensemble forecasts for major solar flares by linearly combining the full-disk probabilistic forecasts from a group of operational forecasting methods (ASAP, ASSA, MAG4, MOSWOC, NOAA, and MCSTAT). Forecasts from each method are weighted by a factor that accounts for the methods ability to predict previous events, and several performance metrics (both probabilistic and categorical) are considered. It is found that most ensembles achieve a better skill metric (between 5% and 15%) than any of the members alone. Moreover, over 90% of ensembles perform better (as measured by forecast attributes) than a simple equal-weights average. Finally, ensemble uncertainties are highly dependent on the internal metric being optimized and they are estimated to be less than 20% for probabilities greater than 0.2. This simple multi-model, linear ensemble technique can provide operational space weather centres with the basis for constructing a versatile ensemble forecasting system -- an improved starting point to their forecasts that can be tailored to different end-user needs.
The solar wind is a magnetized plasma and as such exhibits collective plasma behavior associated with its characteristic spatial and temporal scales. The characteristic length scales include the size of the heliosphere, the collisional mean free paths of all species, their inertial lengths, their gyration radii, and their Debye lengths. The characteristic timescales include the expansion time, the collision times, and the periods associated with gyration, waves, and oscillations. We review the past and present research into the multi-scale nature of the solar wind based on in-situ spacecraft measurements and plasma theory. We emphasize that couplings of processes across scales are important for the global dynamics and thermodynamics of the solar wind. We describe methods to measure in-situ properties of particles and fields. We then discuss the role of expansion effects, non-equilibrium distribution functions, collisions, waves, turbulence, and kinetic microinstabilities for the multi-scale plasma evolution.
Electromagnetic cyclotron waves (ECWs) near the proton cyclotron frequency are frequently observed in the solar wind, yet their generation mechanism is still an open question. Based on the Wind data during the years 2005$-$2015, this paper carries out a statistical study on plasma characteristics associated with the occurrence of ECWs. The probability density distributions (PDDs) of proton temperature anisotropy ($T_perp/T_parallel$) and proton parallel beta ($beta_parallel$) are investigated, where $perp$ and $parallel$ refer to perpendicular and parallel to the background magnetic field, respectively. The PDDs depend on solar wind types as well as wave polarizations, and those for ECWs with left-handed (LH) polarization exhibit considerable differences from the PDDs for ambient solar winds. The distributions of occurrence rates of LH ECWs in ($beta_parallel$, $T_perp/T_parallel$) space show a tendency that the occurrence rates increase with proton temperature anisotropies. The $beta_parallel$ with maximum of occurrence rates is near 0.1 when $T_perp/T_parallel > 1$ while it is around 1 when $T_perp/T_parallel < 1$. The presence of alpha$-$proton differential flow with large kinetic energy corresponds to a much high occurrence rate as well as the domination of LH polarization of ECWs. Based on these observations and existing theories, we propose that the proton cyclotron and parallel firehose instabilities with effects of alpha$-$proton differential flow are likely responsible for the local generation of LH ECWs in the solar wind. The generation mechanism of right-handed ECWs seems to be complicated and more discussions are needed in future researches.
Log in to be able to interact and post comments
comments
Fetching comments
Sign in to be able to follow your search criteria
