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Register a new userPredicting Spatio-Temporal Time Series Using Dimension Reduced Local States
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We present a method for both cross estimation and iterated time series prediction of spatio temporal dynamics based on reconstructed local states, PCA dimension reduction, and local modelling using nearest neighbour methods. The effectiveness of this approach is shown for (noisy) data from a (cubic) Barkley model, the Bueno-Orovio-Cherry-Fenton model, and the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky model.
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This article deals with the estimation of fractal dimension of spatio-temporal patterns that are generated by numerically solving the Swift Hohenberg (SH) equation. The patterns were converted into a spatial series (analogous to time series) which were shown to be chaotic by evaluating the largest Lyapunov exponent. We have applied several nonlinear time-series analysis techniques like Detrended fluctuation and Rescaled range on these spatial data to obtain Hurst exponent values that reveal spatial series data to be long range correlated. We have estimated fractal dimension from the Hurst and power law exponent and found the value lying between 1 and 2. The novelty of our approach lies in estimating fractal dimension using image to data conversion and spatial series analysis techniques, crucial for experimentally obtained images.
Quantifying synchronization phenomena based on the timing of events has recently attracted a great deal of interest in various disciplines such as neuroscience or climatology. A multitude of similarity measures has been proposed for this purpose, including Event Synchronization (ES) and Event Coincidence Analysis (ECA) as two widely applicable examples. While ES defines synchrony in a data adaptive local way that does not distinguish between different time scales, ECA requires selecting a specific scale for analysis. In this paper, we use slightly modifi
Analyzing data from paleoclimate archives such as tree rings or lake sediments offers the opportunity of inferring information on past climate variability. Often, such data sets are univariate and a proper reconstruction of the systems higher-dimensional phase space can be crucial for further analyses. In this study, we systematically compare the methods of time delay embedding and differential embedding for phase space reconstruction. Differential embedding relates the systems higher-dimensional coordinates to the derivatives of the measured time series. For implementation, this requires robust and efficient algorithms to estimate derivatives from noisy and possibly non-uniformly sampled data. For this purpose, we consider several approaches: (i) central differences adapted to irregular sampling, (ii) a generalized version of discrete Legendre coordinates and (iii) the concept of Moving Taylor Bayesian Regression. We evaluate the performance of differential and time delay embedding by studying two paradigmatic model systems - the Lorenz and the Rossler system. More precisely, we compare geometric properties of the reconstructed attractors to those of the original attractors by applying recurrence network analysis. Finally, we demonstrate the potential and the limitations of using the different phase space reconstruction methods in combination with windowed recurrence network analysis for inferring information about past climate variability. This is done by analyzing two well-studied paleoclimate data sets from Ecuador and Mexico. We find that studying the robustness of the results when varying the analysis parameters is an unavoidable step in order to make well-grounded statements on climate variability and to judge whether a data set is suitable for this kind of analysis.
We introduce a generalization of Higuchis estimator of the fractal dimension as a new way to characterize the multifractal spectrum of univariate time series. The resulting multifractal Higuchi dimension analysis (MF-HDA) method considers the order-$q$ moments of the partition function provided by the length of the time series graph at different levels of subsampling. The results obtained for different types of stochastic processes as well as real-world examples of word length series from fictional texts demonstrate that MF-HDA provides a reliable estimate of the multifractal spectrum already for moderate time series lengths. Practical advantages as well as disadvantages of the new approach as compared to other state-of-the-art methods of multifractal analysis are discussed, highlighting the particular potentials of MF-HDA to distinguish mono- from multi-fractal dynamics based on relatively short time series.
Due to the dynamic nature, chaotic time series are difficult predict. In conventional signal processing approaches signals are treated either in time or in space domain only. Spatio-temporal analysis of signal provides more advantages over conventional uni-dimensional approaches by harnessing the information from both the temporal and spatial domains. Herein, we propose an spatio-temporal extension of RBF neural networks for the prediction of chaotic time series. The proposed algorithm utilizes the concept of time-space orthogonality and separately deals with the temporal dynamics and spatial non-linearity(complexity) of the chaotic series. The proposed RBF architecture is explored for the prediction of Mackey-Glass time series and results are compared with the standard RBF. The spatio-temporal RBF is shown to out perform the standard RBFNN by achieving significantly reduced estimation error.
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