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Variance Reduction Applied to Machine Learning for Pricing Bermudan/American Options in High Dimension

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 Added by Andrea Molent
 Publication date 2019
  fields Financial
and research's language is English




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In this paper we propose an efficient method to compute the price of multi-asset American options, based on Machine Learning, Monte Carlo simulations and variance reduction technique. Specifically, the options we consider are written on a basket of assets, each of them following a Black-Scholes dynamics. In the wake of Ludkovskis approach (2018), we implement here a backward dynamic programming algorithm which considers a finite number of uniformly distributed exercise dates. On these dates, the option value is computed as the maximum between the exercise value and the continuation value, which is obtained by means of Gaussian process regression technique and Monte Carlo simulations. Such a method performs well for low dimension baskets but it is not accurate for very high dimension baskets. In order to improve the dimension range, we employ the European option price as a control variate, which allows us to treat very large baskets and moreover to reduce the variance of price estimators. Numerical tests show that the proposed algorithm is fast and reliable, and it can handle also American options on very large baskets of assets, overcoming the problem of the curse of dimensionality.



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In this paper we propose two efficient techniques which allow one to compute the price of American basket options. In particular, we consider a basket of assets that follow a multi-dimensional Black-Scholes dynamics. The proposed techniques, called GPR Tree (GRP-Tree) and GPR Exact Integration (GPR-EI), are both based on Machine Learning, exploited together with binomial trees or with a closed formula for integration. Moreover, these two methods solve the backward dynamic programming problem considering a Bermudan approximation of the American option. On the exercise dates, the value of the option is first computed as the maximum between the exercise value and the continuation value and then approximated by means of Gaussian Process Regression. The two methods mainly differ in the approach used to compute the continuation value: a single step of binomial tree or integration according to the probability density of the process. Numerical results show that these two methods are accurate and reliable in handling American options on very large baskets of assets. Moreover we also consider the rough Bergomi model, which provides stochastic volatility with memory. Despite this model is only bidimensional, the whole history of the process impacts on the price, and handling all this information is not obvious at all. To this aim, we present how to adapt the GPR-Tree and GPR-EI methods and we focus on pricing American options in this non-Markovian framework.
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The main objective of this paper is to present an algorithm of pricing perpetual American put options with asset-dependent discounting. The value function of such an instrument can be described as begin{equation*} V^{omega}_{text{A}^{text{Put}}}(s) = sup_{tauinmathcal{T}} mathbb{E}_{s}[e^{-int_0^tau omega(S_w) dw} (K-S_tau)^{+}], end{equation*} where $mathcal{T}$ is a family of stopping times, $omega$ is a discount function and $mathbb{E}$ is an expectation taken with respect to a martingale measure. Moreover, we assume that the asset price process $S_t$ is a geometric Levy process with negative exponential jumps, i.e. $S_t = s e^{zeta t + sigma B_t - sum_{i=1}^{N_t} Y_i}$. The asset-dependent discounting is reflected in the $omega$ function, so this approach is a generalisation of the classic case when $omega$ is constant. It turns out that under certain conditions on the $omega$ function, the value function $V^{omega}_{text{A}^{text{Put}}}(s)$ is convex and can be represented in a closed form; see Al-Hadad and Palmowski (2021). We provide an option pricing algorithm in this scenario and we present exact calculations for the particular choices of $omega$ such that $V^{omega}_{text{A}^{text{Put}}}(s)$ takes a simplified form.
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