No Arabic abstract
Electronic platform has been increasingly popular for the execution of large orders among asset managers dealing desks. Properly monitoring each individual trade by the appropriate Transaction Cost Analysis (TCA) is the first key step towards this electronic automation. One of the challenges in TCA is to build a benchmark for the expected transaction cost and to characterize the price impact of each individual trade, with given bond characteristics and market conditions. Taking the viewpoint of an investor, we provide an analytical methodology to conduct TCA in corporate bond trading. With limited liquidity of corporate bonds and patchy information available on existing trades, we manage to build a statistical model as a benchmark for effective cost and a non-parametric model for the price impact kernel. Our TCA analysis is conducted based on the TRACE Enhanced dataset and consists of four steps in two different time scales. The first step is to identify the initiator of a transaction and the riskless-principle-trades (RPTs). With the estimated initiator of each trade, the second step is to estimate the bid-ask spread and the mid-price movements. The third step is to estimate the expected average cost on a weekly basis via regularized regression analysis. The final step is to investigate each trade for the amplitude of its price impact and the price decay after the transaction for liquid corporate bonds. Here we apply a transient impact model (TIM) to estimate the price impact kernel via a non-parametric method. Our benchmark model allows for identifying and improving best practices and for enhancing objective and quantitative counter-party selections. A key discovery of our study is the need to account for a price impact asymmetry between customer-buy orders and consumer-sell orders.
We employ perturbation analysis technique to study multi-asset portfolio optimisation with transaction cost. We allow for correlations in risky assets and obtain optimal trading methods for general utility functions. Our analytical results are supported by numerical simulations in the context of the Long Term Growth Model.
Trading in Over-The-Counter (OTC) markets is facilitated by broker-dealers, in comparison to public exchanges, e.g., the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Dealers play an important role in stabilizing prices and providing liquidity in OTC markets. We apply machine learning methods to model and predict the trading behavior of OTC dealers for US corporate bonds. We create sequences of daily historical transaction reports for each dealer over a vocabulary of US corporate bonds. Using this history of dealer activity, we predict the future trading decisions of the dealer. We consider a range of neural network-based prediction models. We propose an extension, the Pointwise-Product ReZero (PPRZ) Transformer model, and demonstrate the improved performance of our model. We show that individual history provides the best predictive model for the most active dealers. For less active dealers, a collective model provides improved performance. Further, clustering dealers based on their similarity can improve performance. Finally, prediction accuracy varies based on the activity level of both the bond and the dealer.
Bitcoin, as one of the most popular cryptocurrency, is recently attracting much attention of investors. Bitcoin price prediction task is consequently a rising academic topic for providing valuable insights and suggestions. Existing bitcoin prediction works mostly base on trivial feature engineering, that manually designs features or factors from multiple areas, including Bticoin Blockchain information, finance and social media sentiments. The feature engineering not only requires much human effort, but the effectiveness of the intuitively designed features can not be guaranteed. In this paper, we aim to mining the abundant patterns encoded in bitcoin transactions, and propose k-order transaction graph to reveal patterns under different scope. We propose the transaction graph based feature to automatically encode the patterns. A novel prediction method is proposed to accept the features and make price prediction, which can take advantage from particular patterns from different history period. The results of comparison experiments demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the most recent state-of-art methods.
We consider a discrete time financial market with proportional transaction cost under model uncertainty, and study a super-replication problem. We recover the duality results that are well known in the classical dominated context. Our key argument consists in using a randomization technique together with the minimax theorem to convert the initial problem to a frictionless problem set on an enlarged space. This allows us to appeal to the techniques and results of Bouchard and Nutz (2015) to obtain the duality result.
Based on a point of view that solvency and security are first, this paper considers regular-singular stochastic optimal control problem of a large insurance company facing positive transaction cost asked by reinsurer under solvency constraint. The company controls proportional reinsurance and dividend pay-out policy to maximize the expected present value of the dividend pay-outs until the time of bankruptcy. The paper aims at deriving the optimal retention ratio, dividend payout level, explicit value function of the insurance company via stochastic analysis and PDE methods. The results present the best equilibrium point between maximization of dividend pay-outs and minimization of risks. The paper also gets a risk-based capital standard to ensure the capital requirement of can cover the total given risk. We present numerical results to make analysis how the model parameters, such as, volatility, premium rate, and risk level, impact on risk-based capital standard, optimal retention ratio, optimal dividend payout level and the companys profit.