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Register a new userA self-consistent method to estimate the rate of compact binary coalescences with a Poisson mixture model
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The recently published GWTC-1 - a journal article summarizing the search for gravitational waves (GWs) from coalescing compact binaries in data produced by the LIGO-Virgo network of ground-based detectors during their first and second observing runs - quoted estimates for the rates of binary neutron star, neutron star black hole binary, and binary black hole mergers, as well as assigned probabilities of astrophysical origin for various significant and marginal GW candidate events. In this paper, we delineate the formalism used to compute these rates and probabilities, which assumes that triggers above a low ranking statistic threshold, whether of terrestrial or astrophysical origin, occur as independent Poisson processes. In particular, we include an arbitrary number of astrophysical categories by redistributing, via mass-based template weighting, the foreground probabilities of candidate events, across source classes. We evaluate this formalism on synthetic GW data, and demonstrate that this method works well for the kind of GW signals observed during the first and second observing runs.
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Gravitational-wave detections are enabling measurements of the rate of coalescences of binaries composed of two compact objects - neutron stars and/or black holes. The coalescence rate of binaries containing neutron stars is further constrained by electromagnetic observations, including Galactic radio binary pulsars and short gamma-ray bursts. Meanwhile, increasingly sophisticated models of compact objects merging through a variety of evolutionary channels produce a range of theoretically predicted rates. Rapid improvements in instrument sensitivity, along with plans for new and improved surveys, make this an opportune time to summarise the existing observational and theoretical knowledge of compact-binary coalescence rates.
The detection of gravitational waves from a neutron star merger, GW170817, marked the dawn of a new era in time-domain astronomy. Monitoring of the radio emission produced by the merger, including high-resolution radio imaging, enabled measurements of merger properties including the energetics and inclination angle. In this work we compare the capabilities of current and future gravitational wave facilities to the sensitivity of radio facilities to quantify the prospects for detecting the radio afterglows of gravitational wave events. We consider three observing strategies to identify future mergers -- widefield follow-up, targeting galaxies within the merger localisation and deep monitoring of known counterparts. We find that while planned radio facilities like the Square Kilometre Array will be capable of detecting mergers at gigaparsec distances, no facilities are sufficiently sensitive to detect mergers at the range of proposed third-generation gravitational wave detectors that would operate starting in the 2030s.
We present an up-to-date, comprehensive summary of the rates for all types of compact binary coalescence sources detectable by the Initial and Advance
Gravitational wave transients, resulting from the merger of two stellar remnants, are now detectable. The properties and rates of these directly relates to the stellar population which gave rise to their progenitors, and thus to other, electromagnetic transients which result from stellar death. We aim to estimate simultaneously the event rates and delay time distribution of gravitational wave-driven compact object mergers together with the rates of core collapse and thermonuclear supernovae within a single consistent stellar population synthesis paradigm. We combine event delay-time distributions at different metallicities from the Binary Population and Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) models with an analytic model of the volume-averaged cosmic star formation rate density and chemical evolution to determine the volume-averaged rates of each event rate at the current time. We estimate rates in excellent agreement with extant observational constraints on core-collapse supernovae, thermonuclear supernovae and long GRBs. We predict rates for gravitational wave mergers based on the same stellar populations, and find rates consistent with current LIGO estimates. We note that tighter constraints on the rates of these events will be required before it is possible to determine their redshift evolution, progenitor metallicity dependence or constrain uncertain aspects of stellar evolution.
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