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Register a new userScattering Statistics of Generalized Spatial Poisson Point Processes
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Added by
Matthew Hirn
Publication date
2019
fields
Mathematical Statistics
and research's language is
English
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We present a machine learning model for the analysis of randomly generated discrete signals, which we model as the points of a homogeneous or inhomogeneous, compound Poisson point process. Like the wavelet scattering transform introduced by S. Mallat, our construction is a mathematical model of convolutional neural networks and is naturally invariant to translations and reflections. Our model replaces wavelets with Gabor-type measurements and therefore decouples the roles of scale and frequency. We show that, with suitably chosen nonlinearities, our measurements distinguish Poisson point processes from common self-similar processes, and separate different types of Poisson point processes based on the first and second moments of the arrival intensity $lambda(t)$, as well as the absolute moments of the charges associated to each point.
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The effectiveness of Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) has been demonstrated in a variety of contexts including non parametric regression and classification. Here we introduce a BART scheme for estimating the intensity of inhomogeneous Poisson Processes. Poisson intensity estimation is a vital task in various applications including medical imaging, astrophysics and network traffic analysis. Our approach enables full posterior inference of the intensity in a nonparametric regression setting. We demonstrate the performance of our scheme through simulation studies on synthetic and real datasets in one and two dimensions, and compare our approach to alternative approaches.
For the particles undergoing the anomalous diffusion with different waiting time distributions for different internal states, we derive the Fokker-Planck and Feymann-Kac equations, respectively, describing positions of the particles and functional distributions of the trajectories of particles; in particular, the equations governing the functional distribution of internal states are also obtained. The dynamics of the stochastic processes are analyzed and the applications, calculating the distribution of the first passage time and the distribution of the fraction of the occupation time, of the equations are given.
We are interested in estimating the location of what we call smooth change-point from $n$ independent observations of an inhomogeneous Poisson process. The smooth change-point is a transition of the intensity function of the process from one level to another which happens smoothly, but over such a small interval, that its length $delta_n$ is considered to be decreasing to $0$ as $nto+infty$. We show that if $delta_n$ goes to zero slower than $1/n$, our model is locally asymptotically normal (with a rather unusual rate $sqrt{delta_n/n}$), and the maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimators are consistent, asymptotically normal and asymptotically efficient. If, on the contrary, $delta_n$ goes to zero faster than $1/n$, our model is non-regular and behaves like a change-point model. More precisely, in this case we show that the Bayesian estimators are consistent, converge at rate $1/n$, have non-Gaussian limit distributions and are asymptotically efficient. All these results are obtained using the likelihood ratio analysis method of Ibragimov and Khasminskii, which equally yields the convergence of polynomial moments of the considered estimators. However, in order to study the maximum likelihood estimator in the case where $delta_n$ goes to zero faster than $1/n$, this method cannot be applied using the usual topologies of convergence in functional spaces. So, this study should go through the use of an alternative topology and will be considered in a future work.
Random divisions of an interval arise in various context, including statistics, physics, and geometric analysis. For testing the uniformity of a random partition of the unit interval $[0,1]$ into $k$ disjoint subintervals of size $(S_k[1],ldots,S_k[k])$, Greenwood (1946) suggested using the squared $ell_2$-norm of this size vector as a test statistic, prompting a number of subsequent studies. Despite much progress on understanding its power and asymptotic properties, attempts to find its exact distribution have succeeded so far for only small values of $k$. Here, we develop an efficient method to compute the distribution of the Greenwood statistic and more general spacing-statistics for an arbitrary value of $k$. Specifically, we consider random divisions of ${1,2,dots,n}$ into $k$ subsets of consecutive integers and study $|S_{n,k}|^p_{p,w}$, the $p$th power of the weighted $ell_p$-norm of the subset size vector $S_{n,k}=(S_{n,k}[1],ldots,S_{n,k}[k])$ for arbitrary weights $w=(w_1,ldots,w_k)$. We present an exact and quickly computable formula for its moments, as well as a simple algorithm to accurately reconstruct a probability distribution using the moment sequence. We also study various scaling limits, one of which corresponds to the Greenwood statistic in the case of $p=2$ and $w=(1,ldots,1)$, and this connection allows us to obtain information about regularity, monotonicity and local behavior of its distribution. Lastly, we devise a new family of non-parametric tests using $|S_{n,k}|^p_{p,w}$ and demonstrate that they exhibit substantially improved power for a large class of alternatives, compared to existing popular methods such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramer-von Mises, and Mann-Whitney/Wilcoxon rank-sum tests.
We consider the batch (off-line) policy learning problem in the infinite horizon Markov Decision Process. Motivated by mobile health applications, we focus on learning a policy that maximizes the long-term average reward. We propose a doubly robust estimator for the average reward and show that it achieves semiparametric efficiency given multiple trajectories collected under some behavior policy. Based on the proposed estimator, we develop an optimization algorithm to compute the optimal policy in a parameterized stochastic policy class. The performance of the estimated policy is measured by the difference between the optimal average reward in the policy class and the average reward of the estimated policy and we establish a finite-sample regret guarantee. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first regret bound for batch policy learning in the infinite time horizon setting. The performance of the method is illustrated by simulation studies.
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