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Register a new userThe Local Perspective on the Hubble Tension: Local Structure Does Not Impact Measurement of the Hubble Constant
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Added by
W. D'Arcy Kenworthy
Publication date
2019
fields
Physics
and research's language is
English
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We use the largest sample to date of spectroscopic SN Ia distances and redshifts to look for evidence in the Hubble diagram of large scale outflows caused by local voids suggested to exist at z<0.15. Our sample combines data from the Pantheon sample with the Foundation survey and the most recent release of lightcurves from the Carnegie Supernova Project to create a sample of 1295 SNe over a redshift range of 0.01<z<2.26. We make use of an inhomogeneous and isotropic Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi metric to model a void in the SN Ia distance-redshift relation. We conclude that the SN luminosity distance-redshift relation is inconsistent at the 4-5 sigma confidence level with large local underdensities (|delta| > 20%, where the density contrast delta = Delta rho /rho) proposed in some galaxy count studies, and find no evidence of a change in the Hubble constant corresponding to a void with a sharp edge in the redshift range 0.023<z<0.15. With empirical precision of sigma_H_0 = 0.60%, we conclude that the distance ladder measurement is not affected by local density contrasts, in agreement with cosmic variance of sigma_H_0 = 0.42% predicted from simulations of large-scale structure. Given that uncertainty in the distance ladder value is sigma_H_0=2.2%, this does not affect the Hubble tension. We derive a 5 sigma constraint on local density contrasts on scales larger than 69 megaparsec h^-1 of delta < 27%. The presence of local structure does not appear to impede the possibility of measuring the Hubble constant to 1% precision.
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It is shown, from the two independent approaches of McCrea-Milne and of Zeldovich, that one can fully recover the set equations corresponding to the relativistic equations of the expanding universe of Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker geometry. Although similar, the Newtonian and relativistic set of equations have a principal difference in the content and hence define two flows, local and global ones, thus naturally exposing the Hubble tension at the presence of the cosmological constant Lambda. From this, we obtain absolute constraints on the lower and upper values for the local Hubble parameter, sqrt{Lambda c^2/3} simeq 56.2$ and sqrt{Lambda c^2} simeq 97.3 (km/sec Mpc^{-1}), respectively. The link to the so-called maximum force--tension issue in cosmological models is revealed.
The $Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter model ($Lambda$CDM) represents the current standard model in cosmology. Within this, there is a tension between the value of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, inferred from local distance indicators and the angular scale of fluctuations in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). We investigate whether the tension is significant enough to warrant new physics in the form of modifying or adding energy components to the standard cosmological model. We find that late time dark energy explanations are slightly disfavoured whereas a pre-CMB decoupling extra dark energy component has a marginally positive Bayesian evidence. A constant equation of state of the additional early energy density is constrained to 0.086$^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$. Although this value deviates significantly from 1/3, valid for dark radiation, the latter is not disfavoured based on the Bayesian evidence. If the tension persists, future estimates of $H_0$ at the 1$%$ level will be able to decisively determine which of the proposed explanations is favoured.
Estimates of the Hubble constant, $H_0$, from the distance ladder and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) differ at the $sim$3-$sigma$ level, indicating a potential issue with the standard $Lambda$CDM cosmology. Interpreting this tension correctly requires a model comparison calculation depending on not only the traditional `$n$-$sigma$ mismatch but also the tails of the likelihoods. Determining the form of the tails of the local $H_0$ likelihood is impossible with the standard Gaussian least-squares approximation, as it requires using non-Gaussian distributions to faithfully represent anchor likelihoods and model outliers in the Cepheid and supernova (SN) populations, and simultaneous fitting of the full distance-ladder dataset to correctly propagate uncertainties. We have developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the full distance ladder, from nearby geometric anchors through Cepheids to Hubble-Flow SNe. This model does not rely on any distributions being Gaussian, allowing outliers to be modeled and obviating the need for arbitrary data cuts. Sampling from the $sim$3000-parameter joint posterior using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, we find $H_0$ = (72.72 $pm$ 1.67) ${rm km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}}$ when applied to the outlier-cleaned Riess et al. (2016) data, and ($73.15 pm 1.78$) ${rm km,s^{-1},Mpc^{-1}}$ with SN outliers reintroduced. Our high-fidelity sampling of the low-$H_0$ tail of the distance-ladder likelihood allows us to apply Bayesian model comparison to assess the evidence for deviation from $Lambda$CDM. We set up this comparison to yield a lower limit on the odds of the underlying model being $Lambda$CDM given the distance-ladder and Planck XIII (2016) CMB data. The odds against $Lambda$CDM are at worst 10:1 or 7:1, depending on whether the SNe outliers are cut or modeled, or 60:1 if an approximation to the Planck Int. XLVI (2016) likelihood is used.
In a recent paper, we argued that systematic uncertainties related to the choice of Cepheid color-luminosity calibration may have a large influence on the tension between the Hubble constant as inferred from distances to Type Ia supernovae and the cosmic microwave background as measured with the Planck satellite. Here, we investigate the impact of other sources of uncertainty in the supernova distance ladder, including Cepheid temperature and metallicity variations, supernova magnitudes and GAIA parallax distances. Excluding Milky Way Cepheids based on parallax calibration uncertainties, for the color excess calibration we obtain $H_0 = 70.8pm 2.1$ km/s/Mpc, in $1.6,sigma$ tension with the Planck value.
The current cosmological probes have provided a fantastic confirmation of the standard $Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model, that has been constrained with unprecedented accuracy. However, with the increase of the experimental sensitivity a few statistically significant tensions between different independent cosmological datasets emerged. While these tensions can be in portion the result of systematic errors, the persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the need for new physics. In this Letter of Interest we will focus on the $4.4sigma$ tension between the Planck estimate of the Hubble constant $H_0$ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the $H_0$ evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we will list a few interesting new physics models that could solve this tension and discuss how the next decade experiments will be crucial.
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