No Arabic abstract
Bitcoins Lightning Network (LN) is a scalability solution for Bitcoin allowing transactions to be issued with negligible fees and settled instantly at scale. In order to use LN, funds need to be locked in payment channels on the Bitcoin blockchain (Layer-1) for subsequent use in LN (Layer-2). LN is comprised of many payment channels forming a payment channel network. LNs promise is that relatively few payment channels already enable anyone to efficiently, securely and privately route payments across the whole network. In this paper, we quantify the structural properties of LN and argue that LNs current topological properties can be ameliorated in order to improve the security of LN, enabling it to reach its true potential.
How crypto flows among Bitcoin users is an important question for understanding the structure and dynamics of the cryptoasset at a global scale. We compiled all the blockchain data of Bitcoin from its genesis to the year 2020, identified users from anonymous addresses of wallets, and constructed monthly snapshots of networks by focusing on regular users as big players. We apply the methods of bow-tie structure and Hodge decomposition in order to locate the users in the upstream, downstream, and core of the entire crypto flow. Additionally, we reveal principal components hidden in the flow by using non-negative matrix factorization, which we interpret as a probabilistic model. We show that the model is equivalent to a probabilistic latent semantic analysis in natural language processing, enabling us to estimate the number of such hidden components. Moreover, we find that the bow-tie structure and the principal components are quite stable among those big players. This study can be a solid basis on which one can further investigate the temporal change of crypto flow, entry and exit of big players, and so forth.
Risks threatening modern societies form an intricately interconnected network that often underlies crisis situations. Yet, little is known about how risk materializations in distinct domains influence each other. Here we present an approach in which expert assessments of risks likelihoods and influence underlie a quantitative model of the global risk network dynamics. The modeled risks range from environmental to economic and technological and include difficult to quantify risks, such as geo-political or social. Using the maximum likelihood estimation, we find the optimal model parameters and demonstrate that the model including network effects significantly outperforms the others, uncovering full value of the expert collected data. We analyze the model dynamics and study its resilience and stability. Our findings include such risk properties as contagion potential, persistence, roles in cascades of failures and the identity of risks most detrimental to system stability. The model provides quantitative means for measuring the adverse effects of risk interdependence and the materialization of risks in the network.
The digital traces we leave behind when engaging with the modern world offer an interesting lens through which we study behavioral patterns as expression of gender. Although gender differentiation has been observed in a number of settings, the majority of studies focus on a single data stream in isolation. Here we use a dataset of high resolution data collected using mobile phones, as well as detailed questionnaires, to study gender differences in a large cohort. We consider mobility behavior and individual personality traits among a group of more than $800$ university students. We also investigate interactions among them expressed via person-to-person contacts, interactions on online social networks, and telecommunication. Thus, we are able to study the differences between male and female behavior captured through a multitude of channels for a single cohort. We find that while the two genders are similar in a number of aspects, there are robust deviations that include multiple facets of social interactions, suggesting the existence of inherent behavioral differences. Finally, we quantify how aspects of an individuals characteristics and social behavior reveals their gender by posing it as a classification problem. We ask: How well can we distinguish between male and female study participants based on behavior alone? Which behavioral features are most predictive?
This paper presents the first data-driven analysis of Gettr, a new social network platform launched by former US President Donald Trumps team. Among other things, we find that users on the platform heavily discuss politics, with a focus on the Trump campaign in the US and Bolsonaros in Brazil. Activity on the platform has steadily been decreasing since its launch, although a core of verified users and early adopters kept posting and become central to it. Finally, although toxicity has been increasing over time, the average level of toxicity is still lower than the one recently observed on other fringe social networks like Gab and 4chan. Overall, we provide a first quantitative look at this new community, observing a lack of organic engagement and activity.
We present work in jointly inferring the unique individuals as well as their social rank within a collection of letters from an Old Assyrian trade colony in Kultepe, Turkey, settled by merchants from the ancient city of Assur for approximately 200 years between 1950-1750 BCE, the height of the Middle Bronze Age. Using a probabilistic latent-variable model, we leverage pairwise social differences between names in cuneiform tablets to infer a single underlying social order that best explains the data we observe. Evaluating our output with published judgments by domain experts suggests that our method may be used for building informed hypotheses that are driven by data, and that may offer promising avenues for directed research by Assyriologists.