No Arabic abstract
We translate a coagulation-framentation model, describing the dynamics of animal group size distributions, into a model for the population distribution and associate the blue{nonlinear} evolution equation with a Markov jump process of a type introduced in classic work of H.~McKean. In particular this formalizes a model suggested by H.-S. Niwa [J.~Theo.~Biol.~224 (2003)] with simple coagulation and fragmentation rates. Based on the jump process, we develop a numerical scheme that allows us to approximate the equilibrium for the Niwa model, validated by comparison to analytical results by Degond et al. [J.~Nonlinear Sci.~27 (2017)], and study the population and size distributions for more complicated rates. Furthermore, the simulations are used to describe statistical properties of the underlying jump process. We additionally discuss the relation of the jump process to models expressed in stochastic differential equations and demonstrate that such a connection is justified in the case of nearest-neighbour interactions, as opposed to global interactions as in the Niwa model.
We study numerically a coagulation-fragmentation model derived by Niwa and further elaborated by Degond et al., where a unique equilibrium distribution of group sizes is shown to exist in both cases of continuous and discrete group size distributions. We provide a numerical investigation of these equilibria using three different methods to approximate the equilibrium: a recursive algorithm based on the work of Ma et. al., a Newton method and the resolution of the time-dependent problem. All three schemes are validated by showing that they approximate the predicted small and large size asymptotic behaviour of the equilibrium accurately. The recursive algorithm is used to investigate the transition from discrete to continuous size distributions and the time evolution scheme is exploited to show uniform convergence to equilibrium in time and to determine convergence rates.
In this paper, new techniques that allow conditional entropy to estimate the combinatorics of symbols are applied to animal communication studies to estimate the communications repertoire size. By using the conditional entropy estimates at multiple orders, the paper estimates the total repertoire sizes for animal communication across bottlenose dolphins, humpback whales, and several species of birds for N-grams length one to three. In addition to discussing the impact of this method on studies of animal communication complexity, the reliability of these estimates is compared to other methods through simulation. While entropy does undercount the total repertoire size due to rare N-grams, it gives a more accurate picture of the most frequently used repertoire than just repertoire size alone.
In most sampling algorithms, including Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, transition rates between states correspond to the probability of making a transition in a single time step, and are constrained to be less than or equal to 1. We derive a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm using a continuous time Markov jump process, and are thus able to escape this constraint. Transition rates in a Markov jump process need only be non-negative. We demonstrate that the new algorithm leads to improved mixing for several example problems, both by evaluating the spectral gap of the Markov operator, and by computing autocorrelation as a function of compute time. We release the algorithm as an open source Python package.
The Markov-modulated Poisson process is utilised for count modelling in a variety of areas such as queueing, reliability, network and insurance claims analysis. In this paper, we extend the Markov-modulated Poisson process framework through the introduction of a flexible frequency perturbation measure. This contribution enables known information of observed event arrivals to be naturally incorporated in a tractable manner, while the hidden Markov chain captures the effect of unobservable drivers of the data. In addition to increases in accuracy and interpretability, this method supplements analysis of the latent factors. Further, this procedure naturally incorporates data features such as over-dispersion and autocorrelation. Additional insights can be generated to assist analysis, including a procedure for iterative model improvement. Implementation difficulties are also addressed with a focus on dealing with large data sets, where latent models are especially advantageous due the large number of observations facilitating identification of hidden factors. Namely, computational issues such as numerical underflow and high processing cost arise in this context and in this paper, we produce procedures to overcome these problems. This modelling framework is demonstrated using a large insurance data set to illustrate theoretical, practical and computational contributions and an empirical comparison to other count models highlight the advantages of the proposed approach.
Spatial memory plays a role in the way animals perceive their environments, resulting in memory-informed movement patterns that are observable to ecologists. Developing mathematical techniques to understand how animals use memory in their environments allows for an increased understanding of animal cognition. Here we describe a model that accounts for the memory of seasonal or ephemeral qualities of an animals environment. The model captures multiple behaviors at once by allowing for resource selection in the present time as well as long-distance navigations to previously visited locations within an animals home range. We performed a set of analyses on simulated data to test our model, determining that it can provide informative results from as little as one year of discrete-time location data. We also show that the accuracy of model selection and parameter estimation increases with more location data. This model has potential to identify cognitive mechanisms for memory in a variety of ecological systems where periodic or seasonal revisitation patterns within a home range may take place.