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Register a new userForecasting Periods of Strong Southward Magnetic Field Following Interplanetary Shocks
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Long periods of strong southward magnetic fields are known to be the primary cause of intense geomagnetic storms. The majority of such events are caused by the passage over Earth of a magnetic ejecta. Irrespective of the interplanetary cause, fast-forward shocks often precede such strong southward B$_{z}$ periods. Here, we first look at all long periods of strong southward magnetic fields as well as fast-forward shocks measured by the textit{Wind} spacecraft in a 22.4-year span. We find that 76{%} of strong southward B$_{z}$ periods are preceded within 48 hours by at least a fast-forward shock but only about 23{%} of all shocks are followed within 48 hours by strong southward B$_{z}$ periods. Then, we devise a threshold-based probabilistic forecasting method based on the shock properties and the pre-shock near-Earth solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field characteristics adopting a `superposed epoch analysis-like approach. Our analysis shows that the solar wind conditions in the 30 minutes interval around the arrival of fast-forward shocks have a significant contribution to the prediction of long-duration southward B$_{z}$ periods. This probabilistic model may provide on average a 14-hour warning time for an intense and long-duration southward B$_{z}$ period. Evaluating the forecast capability of the model through a statistical and skill score-based approach reveals that it outperforms a coin-flipping forecast. By using the information provided by the arrival of a fast-forward shock at L1, this model represents a marked improvement over similar forecasting methods. We outline a number of future potential improvements.
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The acceleration of thermal solar wind protons at spherical interplanetary shocks driven by coronal mass ejections is investigated. The solar wind velocity distribution is represented using $kappa$-functions, which are transformed in response to simulated shock transitions in the fixed-frame flow speed, plasma number density, and temperature. These heated solar wind distributions are specified as source spectra at the shock from which particles with sufficient energy can be injected into the diffusive shock acceleration process. It is shown that for shock-accelerated spectra to display the classically expected power-law indices associated with the compression ratio, diffusion length scales must exceed the width of the compression region. The maximum attainable energies of shock-accelerated spectra are found to be limited by the transit times of interplanetary shocks, while spectra may be accelerated to higher energies in the presence of higher levels of magnetic turbulence or at faster-moving shocks. Indeed, simulations suggest fast-moving shocks are more likely to produce very high-energy particles, while strong shocks, associated with harder shock-accelerated spectra, are linked to higher intensities of energetic particles. The prior heating of the solar wind distribution is found to complement shock acceleration in reproducing the intensities of typical energetic storm particle events, especially where injection energies are high. Moreover, simulations of $sim$0.2 to 1 MeV proton intensities are presented that naturally reproduce the observed flat energy spectra prior to shock passages. Energetic particles accelerated from the solar wind, aided by its prior heating, are shown to contribute substantially to intensities during energetic storm particle events.
A statistical analysis of 15,210 electron velocity distribution function (VDF) fits, observed within $pm$2 hours of 52 interplanetary (IP) shocks by the $Wind$ spacecraft near 1 AU, is presented. This is the second in a three-part series on electron VDFs near IP shocks. The electron velocity moment statistics for the dense, low energy core, tenuous, hot halo, and field-aligned beam/strahl are a statistically significant list of values illustrated with both histograms and tabular lists for reference and baselines in future work. The beam/strahl fit results in the upstream are currently the closest thing to a proper parameterization of the beam/strahl electron velocity moments in the ambient solar wind. This work will also serve as a 1 AU baseline and reference for missions like $Parker Solar Probe$ and $Solar Orbiter$. The median density, temperature, beta, and temperature anisotropy values for the core(halo)[beam/strahl] components, with subscripts $ec$($eh$)[$eb$], of all fit results respectively are $n{scriptstyle_{ec(h)[b]}}$ $sim$ 11.3(0.36)[0.17] $cm^{-3}$, $T{scriptstyle_{ec(h)[b], tot}}$ $sim$ 14.6(48.4)[40.2] $eV$, $beta{scriptstyle_{ec(h)[b], tot}}$ $sim$ 0.93(0.11)[0.05], and $mathcal{A}{scriptstyle_{ec(h)[b]}}$ $sim$ 0.98(1.03)[0.93]. The nuanced details of the fitting method and data product description were published in Paper I and the detailed analysis of the results will be shown in Paper III.
Analysis of model fit results of 15,210 electron velocity distribution functions (VDFs), observed within $pm$2 hours of 52 interplanetary (IP) shocks by the Wind spacecraft near 1 AU, is presented as the third and final part on electron VDFs near IP shocks. The core electrons and protons dominate in the magnitude and change in the partial-to-total thermal pressure ratio, with the core electrons often gaining as much or more than the protons. Only a moderate positive correlation is observed between the electron temperature and the kinetic energy change across the shock, while weaker, if any, correlations were found with any other macroscopic shock parameter. No VDF parameter correlated with the shock normal angle. The electron VDF evolves from a narrowly peaked core with flaring suprathermal tails in the upstream to either a slightly hotter core with steeper tails or much hotter flattop core with even steeper tails downstream of the weaker and strongest shocks, respectively. Both quasi-static and fluctuating fields are examined as possible mechanisms modifying the VDF but neither is sufficient alone. For instance, flattop VDFs can be generated by nonlinear ion acoustic wave stochastic acceleration (i.e., inelastic collisions) while other work suggested they result from the combination of quasi-static and fluctuating fields. This three-part study shows that not only are these systems not thermodynamic in nature, even kinetic models may require modification to include things like inelastic collision operators to properly model electron VDF evolution across shocks or in the solar wind.
We analyze the response of different ionospheric equivalent current modes to variations in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components By and Bz. Each mode comprises a fixed spatial pattern whose amplitude varies in time, identified by a month-by-month empirical orthogonal function separation of surface measured magnetic field variance. Here we focus on four sets of modes that have been previously identified as DPY, DP2, NBZ, and DP1. We derive the cross-correlation function of each mode set with either IMF (B$_{y}$) or (B$_{z}$) for lags ranging from -10 to +600 mins with respect to the IMF state at the bow shock nose. For all four sets of modes, the average correlation can be reproduced by a sum of up to three linear responses to the IMF component, each centered on a different lag. These are interpreted as the statistical ionospheric responses to magnetopause merging (15- to 20-min lag) and magnetotail reconnection (60-min lag) and to IMF persistence. Of the mode sets, NBZ and DPY are the most predictable from a given IMF component, with DP1 (the substorm component) the least predictable. The proportion of mode variability explained by the IMF increases for the longer lags, thought to indicate conductivity feedbacks from substorms. In summary, we confirm the postulated physical basis of these modes and quantify their multiple reconfiguration timescales.
We present waveform observations of electromagnetic lower hybrid and whistler waves with f_ci << f < f_ce downstream of four supercritical interplanetary (IP) shocks using the Wind search coil magnetometer. The whistler waves were observed to have a weak positive correlation between partialB and normalized heat flux magnitude and an inverse correlation with T_eh/T_ec. All were observed simultaneous with electron distributions satisfying the whistler heat flux instability threshold and most with T_{perp,h}/T_{para,h} > 1.01. Thus, the whistler mode waves appear to be driven by a heat flux instability and cause perpendicular heating of the halo electrons. The lower hybrid waves show a much weaker correlation between partialB and normalized heat flux magnitude and are often observed near magnetic field gradients. A third type of event shows fluctuations consistent with a mixture of both lower hybrid and whistler mode waves. These results suggest that whistler waves may indeed be regulating the electron heat flux and the halo temperature anisotropy, which is important for theories and simulations of electron distribution evolution from the sun to the earth.
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