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In confined plasmas, a localized fluctuation in a marginal or weakly damped region will propagate and generate an avalanche if it exceeds a threshold. In this letter, a new model for turbulence spreading based on subcritical instability in the turbulence intensity is introduced. We derive a quantitative threshold for spreading from a seed in a stable region, based on a competition between diffusion and nonlinear growth of the turbulence intensity. The model resolves issues with the established Fisher equation model for turbulence spreading, which is supercritical and cannot support the stationary coexistence of multiple turbulence levels. Implications for turbulence spreading are discussed, including the dynamics of ballistic penetration of turbulence into the stable zone. Tests of the theory are suggested.
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Differential rotation is known to suppress linear instabilities in fusion plasmas. However, even in the absence of growing eigenmodes, subcritical fluctuations that grow transiently can lead to sustained turbulence. Here transient growth of electrostatic fluctuations driven by the parallel velocity gradient (PVG) and the ion temperature gradient (ITG) in the presence of a perpendicular ExB velocity shear is considered. The maximally simplified case of zero magnetic shear is treated in the framework of a local shearing box. There are no linearly growing eigenmodes, so all excitations are transient. The maximal amplification factor of initial perturbations and the corresponding wavenumbers are calculated as functions of q/epsilon (=safety factor/aspect ratio), temperature gradient and velocity shear. Analytical results are corroborated and supplemented by linear gyrokinetic numerical tests. For sufficiently low values of q/epsilon (<7 in our model), regimes with fully suppressed ion-scale turbulence are possible. For cases when turbulence is not suppressed, an elementary heuristic theory of subcritical PVG turbulence leading to a scaling of the associated ion heat flux with q, epsilon, velocity shear and temperature gradient is proposed; it is argued that the transport is much less stiff than in the ITG regime.
We find and investigate via numerical simulations self-sustained two-dimensional turbulence in a magnetohydrodynamic flow with a maximally simple configuration: plane, noninflectional (with a constant shear of velocity) and threaded by a parallel uniform background magnetic field. This flow is spectrally stable, so the turbulence is subcritical by nature and hence it can be energetically supported just by transient growth mechanism due to shear flow nonnormality. This mechanism appears to be essentially anisotropic in spectral (wavenumber) plane and operates mainly for spatial Fourier harmonics with streamwise wavenumbers less than a ratio of flow shear to the Alfv{e}n speed, $k_y < S/u_A$ (i.e., the Alfv{e}n frequency is lower than the shear rate). We focused on the analysis of the character of nonlinear processes and underlying self-sustaining scheme of the turbulence, i.e., on the interplay between linear transient growth and nonlinear processes, in spectral plane. Our study, being concerned with a new type of the energy-injecting process for turbulence -- the transient growth, represents an alternative to the main trends of MHD turbulence research. We find similarity of the nonlinear dynamics to the related dynamics in hydrodynamic flows -- to the emph{bypass} concept of subcritical turbulence. The essence of the analyzed nonlinear MHD processes appears to be a transverse redistribution of kinetic and magnetic spectral energies in wavenumber plane [as occurs in the related hydrodynamic flow, see Horton et al., Phys. Rev. E {bf 81}, 066304 (2010)] and differs fundamentally from the existing concepts of (anisotropic direct and inverse) cascade processes in MHD shear flows.
The two-field equations governing fully nonlinear dynamics of the drift wave (DW) and geodesic acoustic mode (GAM) in the toroidal geometry are derived in nonlinear gyrokinetic framework. Two stages with distinctive features are identified and analyzed. In the linear growth stage, the set of nonlinear equations can be reduced to the intensively studied parametric decay instability (PDI), accounting for the spontaneous resonant excitation of GAM by DW. The main results of previous works on spontaneous GAM excitation, e.g., the much enhanced GAM group velocity and the nonlinear growth rate of GAM, are reproduced from numerical solution of the two-field equations. In the fully nonlinear stage, soliton structures are observed to form due to the balancing of the self-trapping effect by the spontaneously excited GAM and kinetic dispersiveness of DW. The soliton structures enhance turbulence spreading from DW linearly unstable to stable region, exhibiting convective propagation instead of typical linear dispersive process, and is thus, expected to induce core-edge interaction and nonlocal transport.
So far most of the analysis of coronavirus 2020 epidemic data has been focusing on a short-time window and consequently a quantitative test of statistical physical laws of Coronavirus Epidemics with Containment Measures (CEwCM) is currently lacking. Here we report a quantitative analysis of CEwCM over 230 days, covering the full-time lapse of the first epidemic wave. We use a 3D phase diagram tracking the simultaneous evolution of the doubling time Td(t) and reproductive number Rt(t) showing that this expanded parameter space is needed for biological physics of CEwCP. We have verified that in the supercritical [Rt(t)>1, Td(t)<40 days] regime i) the curve Z(t) of total infected cases follows the growth rate called Ostwald law; ii) the doubling time follows the exponential law Td(t)=A exp((t-t0)/s) as a function of time and iii) the power law Td(t)=C(Rt(t)-1)^-n is verified with the exponent n depending on the definition of Rt(t). The log-log plots Td(t) versus (Rt-1) of the second 2020 epidemic wave unveil in the subcritical regime [Td(t)>100 days] arrested metastable phases with Rt>1 where Td(t) was kept constant followed by its explosion and its containment following the same power law as in the first wave
Particle transport, acceleration and energisation are phenomena of major importance for both space and laboratory plasmas. Despite years of study, an accurate theoretical description of these effects is still lacking. Validating models with self-consistent, kinetic simulations represents today a new challenge for the description of weakly-collisional, turbulent plasmas. We perform two-dimensional (2D) hybrid-PIC simulations of steady-state turbulence to study the processes of diffusion and acceleration. The chosen plasma parameters allow to span different systems, going from the solar corona to the solar wind, from the Earths magnetosheath to confinement devices. To describe the ion diffusion, we adapted the Nonlinear Guiding Center (NLGC) theory to the 2D case. Finally, we investigated the local influence of coherent structures on particle energisation and acceleration: current sheets play an important role if the ions Larmor radii are on the order of the current sheets size. This resonance-like process leads to the violation of the magnetic moment conservation, eventually enhancing the velocity-space diffusion.
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